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Trend Analysis

Combining Time cycle+Channel+Candle-stickI tried putting Elliot wave label on Asian paint daily,weekly and monthly chart and couldn't come to any logical conclusion,as the uptrend didnt followed any fib rule's neither did any major swing have an internal structure similar to elliot pattern cumulatively which could make an elliot pattern. Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money. This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion. Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future. observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle. To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts. Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome. Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
NSE:ASIANPAINTEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
17
[Educational] Building Your Weekly Price Action WatchlistThis post helps you to understand how you can project any pattern formation in earlier stage. Also, It helps you to build your perfect weekly watchlist. Create Your Price Action Weekly Watchlist in Following Sections: 1) Early Stage Price Action(Waiting Phase) 2) Mid-Stage Price Action(Reversal Entry Phase) 3) Final Price Action(Breakout/Breakdown Entry Phase) Just spend few hours of your weekend and you don't required any screener to find perfect entry stock. You can build this watchlist according to your trading style. Timeframe to be consider: Intraday Positions: 5 Min, 15 Min, 1 Hour Short Term Positions: 1 Hour, 1 Day, 1 Week Long Term Positions: 1 Week, 1 Month
MEducation
by TradZoo
1
Fibonacci Trading Strategy : Beginner's to Advanced GuideWhy Fibonacci Tools? Fibonacci tools can help traders to determine upcoming support and resistance areas. Unlike other indicator which works on historical data and mathematical calculation considered to be as Lagging Indicator. For Example: MACD, Stoch RSI, Bollinger Band etc. Where as FIBONACCI tools does not come from any formula and historical data, it is predictive in nature and helps to determine potential support and resistance before price gets there. That’s why Fibonacci tools considered to be leading Oscillator. I will not go in details how this numbers are shown up, you will get theory part online easily. I think our main objective to learn how to use in our trading. So, let’s get Started. MARKET TRENDS The key to successful trading with Fibonacci is to trade in the direction of the overall trend. As we all know that there are 3 Market trends. 1.UpTrend. 2.DownTrend. 3.Sideways. If you ask me what is current BANK NIFTY Trend, I will say at what Time Frame. Why? Because at 1 Week HIGHER TIME Frame shows Uptrend Market and 1 Hour time frame shown Down Trend market. You can also use Moving Average (EMA 50), to distinguish trend. Price> 50 EMA Uptrend and Vice versa. Once you Identified Trend of Market, we are good to go to next step. Higher Time Frame: Lower Time Frame: RETRACMENT LEVELS The most popular retracement levels are (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%). Fibonacci retracement levels are mainly used to determine support and resistance levels. When market retrace from 23.6 % and 38.2% considered to be as shallow pullback and leads to highly trending market. Whereas 50%, 61.8% and 78.6 % considered as Deep Pullback and leads to weak trend. 61.8% is very important level because of Golden Ratio and act as psychological number where Profit booking and Reversal is expected. How to Draw? Now we all know how to identify Trend and what are the important retracement levels. Now we will look how to draw Fibonacci Retracement. “ALT + F” or “Ctrl + K” and type Fib then Select it. Now select Swing High and Swing Low from the chart. Note: I am considering SH and SL as a LEG. You will be having doubt which Leg to Select, answer is simple you can select as many legs and find Confluences between Leg. Which will act as great Support and Resistance. ENTRY : Ok, So I will be talking about entry based on your personality. 1. Aggressive Trade As soon as market touches 61.8 % levels, you enter and I think this is risky way to enter but your reward will be higher. 2. Conservative Trade You will be waiting for Confirmation and place your order and this ideally best way to enter but reward is lower. And I will dig deeper into confirmation for the trade. Confirmation 1. Using Indicator: Moving average Crossover(9EMA,25EMA), MACD, RSI, VWAP etc. 2. Using Candle Stick: Pin Bar, Engulfing etc. 3. Using Support and Resistance: Check for S/R area. 4. Using Trend Line I Think you get an idea what confirmation you can use, if you are indicator trader use any one of the indicators mentioned above and if you are Price action Trader you can use Trend Line, Support and Resistance, Candle Stick etc. STOP LOSS This is a Tricky Part as there are many ways you can use Stop Loss but many of them can Stop Out from volatility. My Personal Favourite is 1 ATR from retracement level. So, you are considering Average Price movement and slightly Below that level to avoid market Fluctuation. For Example: 1 ATR Value is 25 and your Stop loss will be 28. Other Stop Loss Technique: 1. Previous Candle Low. 2. Support/ Resistance. EXIT: If you’re Indicator Trader you can use 1. Moving Average Crossover (9EMA, 25 EMA) when 9 crossing 25 you exit. 2. MACD Crossover. etc. But I will recommend to use 3 PART Method. To Exit from your trade. We will be using another FIBONACCI Tools which is FIBONACCI EXPANSION. I will suggest to modify setting and chose only (0, 0.168, 1, 1.618) and don’t ask me why only this number, these are the widely used number for target and works in every time frame. Using this tool is slightly different then Fibonacci retracement where we have to choose two point (Swing High and Swing Low). In FIB EXPANSION we need 3 Point (Swing High, Swing Low, Retracement). It will Project 3 Target (0.168, 1, 1.618). So, our Strategy will off load 1/3rd of our qty at 0.168 level and trail stop loss to our entry point and wait for 2nd target and off load 2/3rd and last qty at 1.618 Level. In this way we will booking our profit and waiting for remaining qty to achieve remaining target. CONCLUSION Every Strategy is 1/3rd part of Trading Plan which means RISK Management and Psychological plays crucial role to master trading. Which many of the traders neglect and suffer losses if you guys interested in RISK MANAGEMENT and PSYCHLOGICAL Lessons. Drop Down Comment Below, if you want more Strategy like these and Stock ideas don’t forget to follow me on Trading View. Peace Out.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by kleympermina
43
Dow @ critical levels.FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY! This is a daily chart of Dow . It has taken a support exactly at its daily support trendline (blue). From last several months, Dow has been trading in a range on weekly charts which can be seen in pink lines. On weekly charts Dow has made a flag and pole pattern and either it takes support at this level or may give break down. If it gives break down then it will be a bad signal for entire markets around the world. Break down on a weekly chart means begining of a down trend in Dow and eventually markets around the world would break down. 33682 is a very import support for Dow and if it starts to trade below that, keep a very strick SL of your portfolio on Daily charts .
DJ:DJIEducation
by AbNamjoshi
Best Trade setup for Forex pairs tradingStrategy to execute trades in forex market, works for all pairs (please do back testing to gain confidence) : What we need : Candle Sticks Timeframe – 1 hr Bollinger Band – Length 20 and StdDev 2.5 Bollinger Band – Length 20 and StdDev 2 RSI – Length 6 Stochastic Oscillators – 14,3,3 MACD – 8,21,5 Confirmation with indicators should be in same trend with candle stick trend 1. RSI (For trend identification) 2. Stoch (Entry and Exit confirmations / Overbought and Oversold confirmations) 3. MACD (For trend identification with convergence/divergence) Risk Reward Ratio : 1:3 and above or as per your risk appetite Rules of the game : Whenever candle stick crosses Std Dev 2 and touches/crosses Std Dev 2.5 above/below then we have to find the entry. Any candle after this should be used as entry point which reverses the previous candle trend. At the same time RSI, Stoch and MACD should also reverse from their respective over sold or over bought positions. Stoch will give first hint of reversal followed by RSI and MACD. If RSI is at 20 or 80 (extremes) then it’s a perfect setup and find the reversal trend along with Candle sticks for entry. If RSI is not at extremes but at 30/40 and 60/70 levels then the setup can work but may not be so accurate, this gives scope for less RR. Stop loss should be the candle stick (candle stick which crossed) high or low (sell/buy respectively) or below the Std dev 2.5 band which ever are nearer or as per your risk appetite. Take profit : First target will be middle band, Second target will be other end once candle sticks touches Std 2 or take profit @ 1:3 or when Stoch blue line touches red line and reverses or when MACD blue line touches red line and reverses or as per the risk appetite. Avoid when : >Confluence of candlesticks trend with RSI/Stoch/MACD is missing (all should be in following same trend path) >RSI is in between 40 to 60 range >If Candle stick do not touch Std dev 2.5 band and reverses >If entry candle sticks are near to the middle line of the Bollinger band as room for uptrend is less >If you do not understand the strategy >If you do not understand how candle sticks are behaving >If candle stick pattern is not respecting high and low lines marked as mentioned above >If there is no confluence of the setup with indicators >When calculated SL is way high due to the formed candle stick (large or big candle stick, if taking entry after this candle) >When there is no confidence on the setup >Fear of Missing Out >In a sideways market, hitting of SL will be high Story behind this setup : Trend will be in between Bollinger band upper and lower bands and entry is sought whenever trend reverses after touching Stddev 2.5 upper or lower band. As per Empirical Rule 95% of Data will fall within 2 Standard Deviation 99% of Data will fall within 2.5 Standard Deviation, reversal happens after this and we try to take confluence with other indicators help for entry and exit. Sometimes an exit can also trigger entry for next trade if the setup gives confluence with mentioned parameters above. Stop Loss : Stop loss is the key here, please do not enter unless you understand how to calculate stop loss. Calculate Stop loss first before entry and it should be below Std dev 2.5 or just below the previous candle of the entry candle whichever is acceptable loss or as per your risk appetite. Please do let me know if you have any questions would be happy to respond. Please do like and share this idea. Thanks Disclaimer : This analysis/strategy is only for educational purpose and not be considered as any trading idea/tip. Please consult your financial advisor before you take any trade and we are no way responsible for your profits/losses. Thank you!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by AdhigamaTrading
1