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Trend Analysis

Trading is a waste of time Trading is a waste of time - until you do this! Welcome back for another exciting video, an educational video, and an eye-opening video for a lot of traders, and I have given it a very, very interesting title that is Trading a Waste of Time. Let's find out in this short video. Recently reading a book called The Best Loser Wins. It's written by Tom Hoggard , he goes by the name of Trader Tom on YouTube .And I urge you to check him out. There are some things that I have learned from his book and I'd like to share it with you. The particular data is of 2019 and these brokers are all located in European Union and, by law they are required to post the failure rates , how many clients are losing money in their market in their accounts. Out of a hundred clients, 89 clients were in a loss. And the situation is same for almost each and every broking houses. So eventually the brokers are making money, but the clients are not. Whenever as a beginner or even a seasoned trader, we are looking at these data and we believe that we are not in this statistical data. We are in the winning percentage in the remaining 10%, but it's not like that for the markets. We are just a statistic. Right? And even if you look at the top 10 broking forms in the world, the majority of people are in a loss. So that really makes us ask this question. Is trading really a waste of time? Are we just wasting our time in trading? And a lot of people, it's a very fine detail and a lot of people might agree with me that, in the initial stages it's really hard to be consistent in making money, right? And I'll discuss the reason with you because this particular reason is not discussed. The social media of Twitter, YouTube, it has all created an image where if you're not doubling your money every month, then you are a loser in the market. But in fact, trading is a very tough profession and it's really hard to make money and initial days protecting your money is one of the biggest tasks in surviving in the market. Protecting yourself from ruin is one of the biggest achievements in trading. So whenever we are starting our journey as a trader, where is our focus? What are the questions we are looking for? What are the things we are usually focused on? , we are on the internet looking for strategies, how to do scalping, how to do seing trading, how to use the indicators, the MACD and RSI, and how we can use different types of breakout indicators, right? These are the focal points of. I remember when I started trading, these are the things I was looking for. A hundred percent strategy, no loss strategy. These are the things that I was looking for initially, but these are usually the wrong answers. You know, in an area where 90% people are in a loss, then you need to ask yourself that. Because it has never been easier to trade because you go back 10 to 15 years, it was not easy to trade. You had to call your broker. And now we have an online trading system where we can just buy and sell stocks at an instant, right? That leads to high liquidity. And high liquidity usually means you can enter and. Very fast and you don't have to pay much for it. And you have all the tools available, especially a tool like Trading View, where you get each and every trading charts, indicators without paying a single penny. So it has never ever been easier to trade. So why are we all still losing money? We are only creating brokerage for our broking firm. This takes us to another and final topic is that in the year 2019, one Forex brokerage firm did an analysis of over 25,000 traders. And over a span of 15 months or 16 months. So that is a long period of time and over five crore trades were analyzed. So it was a very big data to analyze and that would give us a clear picture. So in that analysis it was recorded that out of hundred. , the traders were profitable in 60 of them and they lost money in 40 of them. So this is a very good data, right? Your win, your hit ratio is very high in the total amount of trades. So eventually the data is in your favor, but there's a small catch . When the traders are winning, they're winning 40 points. And when they lose, they lose around 75 points. This is a recipe for disaster. This particular thing created a lot of problems for me in the initial trades during my initial career. And this might be creating a lot of problems for people who are trading for the past one or two years in this high VIX environment because, you know, on paper, on week to week basis, you are winning And, and suddenly there's one particular day when you lose it all and that is the day when it drags your capital back to square one. So this is the biggest reason why it's very difficult for people to manage their trades. Cause it all comes down to how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose. This brings us to the concept of risk . right in this modern area, uh, where option selling and creating spreads and selling naked options has been a very famous thing to do for the past couple of years. That is what happens whenever you're selling options, you have a probability of one 68%. That is a one standard deviation, right? So out of hundred trades you are going to win in 68% of them. But what you do and how you come out of the remaining 30 trades when the situation is not going to go in your favor, that is all going to matter. And that is the crux of thing that makes your journey as a successful trader. Our position in the market is very, very small for the market to know that we even exist or not. If you look at the data, if you just reverse the win and the loss points, even if you're winning only 50% of the times, then also your position is going to be in a net profit. So that's it for the guys. That makes this particular question really interesting. Is trading a waste of time? You're wasting of time, or are you smart enough to realize this thing that the other traders are doing and are in a loss? And what are you doing to improve this position and to improve your survival In this market. So that's it for you guys. I hope I have provided some value in this video, and if you found the video helpful, don't forget to follow me @piyushrawtani Trading View. And if you have any queries, feel free to post it in the comments section. Thank you very much and good night.
Editors' picks
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by piyushrawtani
13
Trend Analysis and its Characteristics.MCX:GOLD1! What is Trend and how to identify it? A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price. an uptrend is defined using peak and trough analysis. An uptrend is represented by a series of successively higher highs (peaks) and lows (troughs), while a downtrend is represented by a series of successively lower highs and lows. ->One can identify it by determining peaks and troughs. ->By using trendlines ->Price remaining above or below an overlay indicator. we can quickly identify the general direction of a market or an asset by looking at the price chart but what we have to learn is to identify the quality of the current trend and how we can do that, by gauging the strength of the trend. Here are some significant points which help us in understanding the mood and quality of a trend. The highest skill any trader can aspire to is the ability to read pure price action. 1. Cycle Amplitude Look for decreasing cycle amplitude in uptrends and downtrends. A decrease in cycle amplitude in an uptrend is an early indication that there may potentially be an underlying weakness in the uptrend. In a similar fashion, a decrease in cycle amplitude in a downtrend is regarded as a bullish indication. 2. Cycle Period A gradual reduction in the cycle period during an uptrend is an early indication that there may potentially be an underlying weakness in the uptrend and a gradual reduction in the cycle period during the downtrend is a bullish indication. 3.Average Bar Range A decrease in the average bar range in an uptrend and downtrend is an early indication of potential weakness in the current trend. -> you can track the bar range using the average true range (ATR) oscillator 4.Bar Retracement Symmetry A change in the number of bars in a retracement is also an early indication of a potential change in trend behaviour. 5. Average Candlestick Real Body to Range Ratio A gradual decrease in the real body to candlestick range is also an early indication of potential weakness in a Trend. 6. Angular Symmetry and Momentum Any change in the Angle of trend is significant:- i.) An upside acceleration in price is bullish whereas an upside deceleration in price is bearish ii.) A downside acceleration in price is bearish whereas a downside deceleration in price is bullish. #It should be noted that although an upside acceleration in price is bullish, the uptrend may not be self‐sustaining if the rate of ascent was excessive. Such rapid increases in price usually end in a blow-off or buying climax with prices subsequently collapsing. Similarly, downside acceleration in prices may also end in a selling climax. 7. Frequency and Depth of Trend-Based Oscillations When a trend moves with reasonable retracements not too short and not too big, it indicates a healthy trend which has profit taking along the way as the trend unfolds. Traders and investors tend not to react as emotionally and irrationally at higher prices where the risk of losing pent‐up and unrealized profit is greater. 8.Relative Measure of Consolidation Size and Duration Trend interruptions are more significant if: ■ Price formations are of greater magnitude (taller chart patterns). ■ Price formations develop over a longer period (wider chart patterns). Larger trend interruptions normally tend to lead to a greater probability of a reversal. In a strong uptrend, a larger head and shoulders formation would be deemed more bearish than a smaller formation. Similarly, a larger rounding bottom formation would be more bullish than a smaller one in a downtrend. In short, size takes precedence over form. Moreover, the longer it takes for a consolidation to unfold, the greater will be its disruptive power with respect to the trend, should a reversal occur. By considering these characteristics while analysing trend will give a in depth insight and helps in making more informed and rational decisions. I Hope you found this helpful. Please like and comment. Keep Learning, Happy Trading!
Editors' picks
MCX:GOLD1!Education
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
40
Rally Base Drop – Supply ZoneUnlike conventional Price Action Analysis, which relies on countless chart patterns, Supply Demand Strategy focuses only on four high-probability price formations. Rally Base Drop (RBD) is one of the four price formations which lay the foundation of the Supply Demand Trading Strategy. Rally Base Drop Pattern RBD is a reversal price pattern, which one can generally locate at market turning points. At areas where uptrends get exhausted and begin a new downward move. RBD occurs when prices have been rising, and peaking, followed by a sharp drop. This indicates that the sellers are now more aggressive and have overwhelmed the buyers to form a Supply Zone. Components of a Rally Base Drop Pattern This formation comprises three parts: 1. Leg-In Candle - Bullish Candle to the left-hand side of the base structure. It need not be an explosive candle. 2. Base Candles - Narrow range small-bodied candles which indicate that orders are potentially being accumulated by the institutions. 3. Leg-Out Candle – Huge Explosive Red candle with a sharp drop in price, which indicates the footprint of Institutional Selling activity. Steps to Identify a Rally Base Drop Pattern 1. Start with the Current Price on the Chart and go from Right to left 2. Look up and left until you find a strong Drop in the Price 3. Identify whether the formation is an RBD 4. Mark the Zone When marking the Zone, we need to watch for freshness and the strength of the Leg-Out Candle. Fresh Supply Zones are those where the price has never retraced after formation, they have the highest probability of having unfilled sell orders. Strong Explosive Red Leg-Out Candle indicates that supply and demand are totally out of balance and institutions have been aggressive sellers at that price zone. Trade Action at a Rally Base Drop Supply Zone RBD pattern is the footprint of Institutional selling activity, formed due to the sheer size of their sell orders. This implies that, when prices retrace back to the area, there is a strong likelihood that there will be a large number of pending sell orders. After identifying the supply zone, we as retail traders must wait for the price to retrace to the zone. The first retracement to the RBD supply zone is a high-probability sell opportunity. We can initiate a short trade on the pullback to the zone and in doing so participate along with the Institutions to the short side. Some past examples: Although RBD is a very powerful supply zone formation, it is highly recommended that one mustn’t trade it in isolation. Combining it with factors like a trend, trend exhaustion and location will improve the odds of the zones working in our favour.
NSE:POLYCABEducation
by MAKTradingSchool
Pullback Trading Strategy - RulesPullback Trading Strategy over 80% Success Rate Rules Moving Average - Price should above 200 Period Moving Average Entry - 10 Period RSI Below 30 Exit - 10 Period RSI Above 50 Stop Loss - Recent Swing Low I hope you understood the pullback trading rules. Chart 1 : Reliance 9.68% Up The price was clearly above the 200 Period Moving Average in the chart below, and the RSI 10 period was below 30, indicating that the pullback rule was satisfied. Chart 2 : SBIN 9.4% Up The price was clearly above the 200 Period Moving Average in the chart below, and the RSI 10 period was below 30, indicating that the pullback rule was satisfied. Chart 3 : TCS 3.13% UP Pullback rule satisfied Chart 4 : Bank Nifty 2.51 % UP Chart 5 : Wipro 3.76 % UP I hope you enjoyed it. Please share and comment if you found this content useful.
Editors' picks
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TheNewsCrypto
19
How to trade doji candle like a legendhello everyone, It's been a long that we haven't discussed anything here.. so our today's topic of discussion is how to trade/play with signs similar to Doji/ dragonfly/hanging-man etc so we know the sign very well. we are referring here to the candlestick pattern, where there is some conflict between buyers & sellers & both keep trying to push/pull each other resulting in forming a candle where we usually see a small body candle having wicks on both sides. so our next question is how to trade them.. 1. Trend: before trading such patterns the trend should be known very well. 2. Once we have got the trend then wait for the small body candle. 3. Once we have got the candle, mark the high/low of the prior candle of the doji candle. 4. Wait for the next candle to form after the formation of doji candle. 5. once, the marked candle high/ low is breached on a closing basis you are all set to go! examples shared Example -1 Example-2 Example-3 Example-4 Example-5 Example-6 Example-7 Example-8 Example-9 I have shared multiple examples regarding the same & hope I be able to add some logic also.. Please note time frame must be kept the same while analyzing this setup. I have shared entry & stop-loss levels only. will share stop loss technique in another post Thanks for reading!!
Editors' picks
NSE:WHIRLPOOLEducation
by ShubhamKatiyar
13
Bullish MarubozuThe bullish Marubozo candle (open equals low, high equals close) can signal a reversal when it is found at the end of a downtrend because it shows that the sentiment has changed and that the bulls are likely to continue pushing the asset higher. Take High and Low of Candle . Take Position at Close. Target ( Total Length of Candle/2), SL : Low of Candle. Risk Reward Ratio: 0.5 Feel free to share your feedback and queries. If you want to know about your stock please mention in comment. Note: This is not Paid only for Educational purpose.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by vahabsheikh
1
Journal for 22 of dec 2022Asian had a bit more volume than usual, Asian high cleared the previous daily high that was just creating more liquidity, my main entry for the over sell was after Tuesday got cleared, nd there was a break of structure, and we had demand failures, but I was able to take risk sell just above the clear if Asian high, I will say that not advisable because London sessions has not open but Asian high was cleared, it would be better if you wait for London open and watch out for Tuesday high that was not cleared.
Education
by mattRH
journal for 21 of dec 2022Eu has been ranging for the past days, with that on my mind, I knew every trade I catch as an intraday is retracement, took my first entry after a break of structure but that was liquidity, I did not notice that from the beginning if I do would have placed my entry above the liquidity and used a 5 pips stop, that would have been my trade for the first entry if I had seen that liquidity on time. Second entry was the wick that cleared liquidity last entry was just above liquidity
Education
by mattRH
1
Gap Trading Combined With Supply & Demand ZonesWhat Are Gaps? Gaps are nothing but Price of a Stock moving up and down sharply with no or little trading happening between the previous days close and current days open. Gaps show an ultimate picture of imbalance between supply & demand. Gap formations are due to many fundamental and technical reasons. Most common example, when there is an announcement of company earnings. Gap Up or Gap Down is imminent the next trading day due to positive or negative news. A trader can profit from gaps provided he/she can identify the type of gap and its location with perspective to Institutional Supply & Demand Zones. Gap Trading Strategy using Supply and Demand Zones A lot of traders are fearful of Gaps and see it as a threat & aren’t comfortable carrying positions overnight. However, for a professional Supply Demand Trader, these Gaps aren’t threats on the contrary they provide high probability trading opportunities, when combined with Supply & Demand Zones. Four Gap Structures That We Look At: 1. Inside Gaps 2. Outside gaps 3. Novice Gaps 4. Professional Gaps 1.How to Identify & Trade Inside Gaps? Inside gaps are created when Price Opens between the prior Day’s High and low. Often these gaps fill quickly on the same day. Inside gaps can be mainly used for quick intraday trades, provided they happen at strong supply & demand zones. Gap Up into a strong Supply Zone provides a good short opportunity, whereas Gap Down into a strong Demand Zone presents a good long opportunity. Let’s see an example: 2.How to Identify & Trade Outside Gaps? Outside gaps are created when Price opens beyond the Prior days High and low. These gaps generally do not fill on the same day. They indicate the establishment of a new Trend or the continuation of the existing one. One must wait for quality Supply & Demand Zones to form after the gap and wait for a pullback to join the new move. Let’s see an example: 3.How to Identify & Trade Novice Gaps? When price gaps in the same direction of the current trend, then it is called a Novice Gap. Novice gaps as the name suggests are created by novice trader emotions and are excellent opportunities to find high probability trade setups. Gap Up or Gap Down after extended moves into quality areas of Supply & Demand, offer us high probability Short & Long opportunities respectively. Let’s see an example: 4.How to Identify & Trade Professional Gaps? When price gaps up in the Opposite direction of the current trend, it is called a Professional Gap or a Pro gap. Pro gaps represent a significant imbalance between Supply & Demand. Pro Gaps generally occur after extended moves in one direction, taking the amateur traders completely by surprise. They generally bring about trend change. Pro Gap Down & Pro Gap Up form high probability Supply & Demand Zones. Pull back to these zones provide us with opportunities to enter at trend change points. Let us see with an example:
Editors' picks
NSE:CUBEducation
by MAKTradingSchool
16
Beginners Guide to Market StructureMarket Structure is the most fundamental aspect of analysing charts, mastering it goes a long way in increasing one's reading of price. It provides us with a narrative with which to look at price. At a glance market structure looks quite simple but when studied in depth it has many nuances & can provide with very valuable information. Market structure is fractal in nature which means that the same pattern of price making higher highs & lower lows or vice versa repeats on all time frames. A bullish market structure on a higher time frame can have a bearish market structure on a lower time frame in its retracement leg. To analyse market structure a Top Down approach is used in which we start out by marking the structure on a higher time frame & then move down to lower time frames repeating the same process till we know where price is presently.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by BharatAsani
CHART TIMEFRAMES GUIDEHello mates and friends as we all know that there are multiple time frame charts we can use in trading like for technical chart analysis, chart patterns and taking a trade but sometimes I see that many of people are using wrong time frame chart for above mentioned things so here I want to try share some information based only on mine knowledge. 1- Monthly chart-: This chart is most oftentimes by long term or positional traders series of data points where each data point is comprised of the price movement for a single month of trading and allow traders to better see the larger trend picture and by the monthly time frame chart they are looking at several years+ worth of price action, and want to hold trades for about a year or more (often called ‘position trading‘). 2- Weekly chart-: This chart is also used by position based traders but for a less longer trend for that traders also who want to see a picture of trend on weekly basis likewise option sellers or option buyers too and do not want to sit in front of monitors for whole day and by looking at the weekly time frame chart they are looking at just a few years worth of price action, and want to hold trades for several months at a time, perhaps close to a year. 3-: Daily chart-: This chart I think is the most popular chart in trading community as per my knowledge and commonly used swing traders those who want to carry their trades for some days like one to eight or ten days, it can be used too for Buy today sell tomorrow or sell today buy tomorrow trades. 4-: Hourly charts-: this chart is commonly used by traders those who depict the price movement of a stock every hour and want to track any of security on hourly basis for pre confirmation a trend on this timeframe chart to their desired timeframe chart to take a position or trade. 5-: Minute chart-: like I am sharing 15 minute chart for example these 5 to 15 minute chart most commonly used by intraday traders and for those who want to focus on the large price movements throughout the day and They don't mind waiting longer for trades to open and close. They prefer cleaner movement and are likely after only one or two trades over multiple hours of trading.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by AMIT-RAJAN
1
Price Action Trading Using Supply & Demand ZonesSupply and Demand Trading Strategy is a price action strategy that focuses on identifying Institutional Buying & Selling Footprints on a Price Chart. This strategy doesn’t rely on any indicators or oscillators; entire focus is on Price Action. Owing to the sheer large size of their orders, Institutional buying or selling leaves behind certain footprints which create specific chart patterns. Price Action Trading Methodology relies on a vast number of Price Patterns, however Supply Demand Trading Methodology focuses only 4 Specific Price Formations. These are classified as Supply & Demand Zones. Supply & Demand Zones These zones are areas on a price chart where price in the past had spent very little time and had moved in an explosive manner. Such sharp moves in price is possible only because of Institutional buying or selling. Owing to the structure of these zones, there is a very high likelihood of having unfilled institutional orders in any zone. Demand Zone Formations Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) A Rally- Base- Rally is a price action pattern that represents the formation of a Demand Zone. It is generally found in strong uptrends, indicating a continuation of the uptrend. This type of pattern is characterized by a leg-in candle followed by a basing of candlesticks and then another Big Explosive leg-out candle. If you look at the leg out candle created in the chart below, it shows a strong vertical rally which is very likely due to institutional buying activity. Drop-Base-Rally (DBR) A Drop-Base-Rally is a formation that represents another Demand Zone pattern. It is a reversal formation, in which a drop is followed by a sideways price movement and then a strong bullish rally. The leg out candle ideally should be a big explosive move which will depict institutional buying activity. Supply Zone Formations Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) Drop-Base-Drop is a price action pattern that represents a Supply zone. A bearish drop followed by a basing or sideways price movement and then an explosive bearish continuation downwards. It is a continuation pattern which can be used to trade & participate in the down trend. Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) Rally-Base -Drop is a price action pattern that represents another supply zone. This formation is characterized by an upward move then a basing of candles and a strong explosive move downwards. Explosive drop after basing indicates the footprint of institutional selling activity. This formation is generally found at the end of an Uptrend signalling a reversal. Trade Action at Zones Supply & Demand trading methodology is a retracement strategy. Long trades can be initiated when price retraces to a Demand Zone & Short trades can be initiated when price retraces to a Supply Zone. However, all zone formations aren’t alike, one must qualify the zones based on factors like how Explosive was the move from the zone, how much time price spent in the zone & most importantly what Reward to Risk Ratios do they zones provide. These zone formations combined with Trend, Location & Multiple Time Frame Analysis lays down the ground rules for Supply Demand Trading.
NSE:ASHOKLEYEducation
by MAKTradingSchool
2
How to know that a double top or bottom will failHello Everyone as you can see here we have made two lines at the top and two lines at the bottom of the same height and you can see how it worked very well and told you very early that where it could be down and have to be cautious but it doesn't mean that everytime you find something like this you should be cautious at there and ready to exit and take the profit. Hope you get something new to learn if than pls like and follow us thanks bye.
NSE:PELEducation
by MAYANKTECHRESEARCHING
6
Divergence Cheat Sheet / Types of DivergenceWhat is divergence? Divergence is a method used in technical analysis when the direction of a technical indicator, usually some form of oscillator ‘diverges’ from the overall price trend. In other words, the indicator starts moving in the opposite direction to the price and the trading oscillator signals a possible trend reversal. Once divergence appears, there is a higher chance of a reversal, especially if divergence appears on a higher time frame. Oscillator indicator for divergence patterns is Weis Wave Volume, macd, the RSI, CCI, or stochastic OBV. Types of divergences There are 4 types of divergence, which are broadly classified into two categories: 1) Regular or Classic Divergence 2) Hidden Divergence With each of these two categories, you have a bullish or a bearish divergence. Therefore, the four types of divergences are summarized as: 1) Regular Bullish Divergence 2) Regular Bearish Divergence 3) Hidden Bullish Divergence 4) Hidden Bearish Divergence Divergence patterns indicate that a reversal is coming soon and becoming more likely but this is not an instant change. The more divergence there is visible, the more likely a reversal does become. Here are some guidelines: The entry can not be taken on the basis of divergence indicator alone. It’s best if a trader mixes the divergence indicator pattern with their strategy. Use Higher time Frames.
Editors' picks
NSE:ELGIEQUIPEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
22
How to Use a Wave Volume Divergence Indicator Wave Volume Divergence Indicator is being introduced In this video, I explain how to use the indication and the purpose behind it. Please forgive me if there are any mistakes in this video as I am not an expert speaker. I'm expecting this video will make wave volume divergence indicator easier for you to understand. Please share this video and indicator with others if it is beneficial to you. Please follow me and like this post to encourage me. Wave Volume Divergence Indicator To learn more about divergence, read my article on divergence, which was selected in Tradingview's Editor's Picks. To learn more about Price and Volume divergence Read My Article on Price and Volume Analysis Indicator help you to identify when the smart money is buying or selling. Wave Volume Divergence indicator is a powerful tool that can help you trade in sync with the smart money and make better trading decisions. The Wave Volume indicator is very useful for determining the direction of a trend & Reversal of trend based on Divergence. The Wave Volume Divergence indicator can be used to see if there is a power shift between bulls and bears. This indicator will give signs for divergence together with the cumulative volume of the bullish and bearish waves. Do not rely on diversions blindly because they may be false signals; instead, use this indicator with your strategy. For high probability trades, use the divergence signal on strong support and resistance levels. Please share this video and indicator with others if it is beneficial to you. Please follow me and like this post to encourage me.
NSE:BSOFTEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
3
Guide to Recession - What Is It? Recession is a scary word for any country An economic recession occurs when the economy shrinks. During recessions, even businesses close their doors. Even an individual can see these things with his own eyes: 1. People lose their jobs 2. Investment lose their value 3. Business suffers losses Note: The recession is part of an economic cycle. If you haven't read that article, you can check it below: What is the Recession? Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. The recession is followed by the peak phase. Even if a recession lasts only a few months, the economy will not reach its peak after serval years when it ends. Effect on supply & Demand - The demand for goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. A recession usually lasts for a short period, but it can be painful. Every recession has a different cause, but they have the main reason for the cause of the recession. What is depression? - A deep recession that persists for a long time eventually leads to depression. During a recession, the inflation rate goes down. How to avoid recession? 1. Monetary Policy - Cut interest rates - Quantitative easing - helicopter money 2: Fiscal policy - Tax Cut - Higher government spending 3: higher inflation target 4: Financial stability Unemployment : We know that companies are healthy in expansion, but there is a saying, "too much of anything can be good for nothing." During peak, The company is unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Companies are taking more risk and debt to reset the growth Not only companies but investors and debtors also invest in risky assets. Why does lay-off occur? After the peak phase, companies are unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Now, the business is no more profitable. CCompaniesstart to reduce their costs to enter into a profitable system. For example - Labour Now, Companies are working with fewer employees. Fewer employees must work more efficiently. Otherwise, they may be lay-off by the company too. You can imagine the workload and pressure. You may argue that they should leave the company! Really? Guys, we just discussed the employment rate declines. How will you get a job when there is no job? Now, you get it! Let's assume the effects of the recession on the common man: Condition 1: He may be laid off. Condition 2: Perhaps he will be forced to work longer hours. The company is unable to maintain a positive outlook. Fewer employees are doing more work due to massive lay-off. His wages decline, and he has no disposable income. As a result, consumption rates are reduced, resulting in lower inflation rates. A slowdown in the economy is caused by lower prices, which decrease profits, resulting in more job cuts. Four Causes of Recession: 1. Economic Shocks 2. Loss of Consumer 3. High-interest rates 4. Sudden stock market crash 1) Economic shocks - When there is an external or economic shock the country faces. For example, COVID-19, 2) Consumer confidence - Negative perception about the economy and the company from consumers who lack confidence in their spending power. Instead of spending, they will choose to save money. As there is no spending, there is no demand for goods and services. The absence of spending results in a lack of demand for goods and services. 3) High-interest rates - High-interest rates will reduce spending. Loans are expensive, so few people take them out. Consumer spending, auto sales, and the housing market will be affected. There can be no good demand if there is no lending. There will be a decline in production. 4) Sudden stock market crash - evade people's trust in the stock market. As a result, they do recall their money and emotion drives them crazy. It can also be considered a psychological factor. As a result, people will not spend money and GDP will decline. Consumer Spending: During the recession, consumers don’t have additional income called disposable income. Consumer spending parts -- Durable goods - Lasts for more than one year -- Non-durable goods - Lasts for less than one year -- Service - Accounting, legal, massage services, etc Durable goods surfer during the recession. Non-durable goods are recession-proof because their day-to-day fundamentals are not affected by recessions. Let's take an example of two stocks, ABC Food vs ABC car But, will you stop buying food because of the recession? Will you reduce your consumption of toothpaste, bread, and milk? The answer is "NO". Consumers buy the same amount of food in good or bad times, On the other hand, consumers only trade in or trade off their car purchase when they are not only employed but optimistic about the safety of their jobs & confident that they could get a promotion or a high paid job with another employer. And People's disposable income is absorbed during the recession. Consumer spending is the crucial point to displacing recession. Auto sales: As we discussed, few people buy cars during a recession. New car sales count as economic growth. You may have heard about 0% loans. The company facilitates a 0% loan to increase auto sales. Mostly, people repair their cars or buy old cars during the recession. You may see a boost in the used car market and spare parts selling companies’ sales. Home sales/housing markets: I have a question now! Which is your biggest asset? Most of you will say, my home! New home sales are part of economic growth. Also, house price impact how wealthy consumer feel. Higher the home prices, the more they feel rich, and vice versa. When home prices are higher, consumers feel they are wealthy and they are willing to spend. But when house price declines, they reduce spending/consumption. If your biggest asset price declines, you don’t spend and the economy takes a longer time to recover. A higher rate stops increasing the home price because they have to pay more EMI. central bank reduces rates during the recession, and the housing market rate boosts because the loan/EMI is cheap. Interest rates: Generally, interest rates decline during a recession. Central banks cut interest rates that’s why loans become cheap. Benefits of Lower interest rates - - - Boost in the housing market. - - Increase sales of durable goods - - Boost in business investment - - Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. An economic downturn tends to bring investors to bonds rather than stocks, which can perform well in a recession. - - During the recession, interest rates are lower and banks highers the criteria for getting loans, so that people can face the abstracts while lending money. Stock Market: I want to clarify that, the stock market is not an economy. The economic cycle is lagging behind the market cycle and sentiment cycle. It gives me a chill as a technical analyst and a sad moment as an economics lover. Sometimes it's ahead, and sometimes it's behind. Recession = bear market . Recession-Proof Industries: * Consumer staples * Guilty pleasures * Utilities * Healthcare * Information technology * Education I will write about this in the future, but for the time being, let's get back to technical analysis .
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Money_Dictators
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