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Wave Analysis

HOW TO TAKE TRADE AFTER PRICE BREAKS MAJOR LEVELAdvanced PRICE ACTION Trading Key Trade Concepts: Buyer Trap Identification: Before entering, always check for a buyer trap or liquidity hunt, where impulsive buyers are lured into the market at a vulnerable level. In this setup, I’ve highlighted how a buyer trap has been triggered, providing a strong signal for potential reversals. Order Block Strategy for Long Entries: Wait for Price to Enter the Order Block: Before any long position, let price retrace to the designated order block. Confirm with High Break and Rejection Candle: Once in the order block, wait for recent highs to break, followed by a rejection candle to confirm the entry. A candle close above this level on the 15-minute time frame is essential, adding strength to the confirmation. Time Frames: Utilize the 5-minute chart for initial moves but rely on a 15-minute candle close for entry confirmation. Take-Profit (TP): Target buy-side liquidity and other strategic levels beyond that, maximizing the potential of each setup. For more professional insights like this, don’t forget to like, follow, and comment. This is the kind of premium content many charge for, but I’m sharing it for free to help others succeed!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by munmeeth
Actual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending TrianglesActual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending Triangles Here is an analysis of the actual success rates of ascending and descending triangles in trading, based on the information provided: Success Rates Ascending and descending triangles generally have fairly high success rates as continuation patterns: -The ascending triangle has a success rate of approximately 72.77%. -The descending triangle has a slightly higher success rate of 72.93%. These numbers come from a study that tested over 200,000 price patterns over a 10-year period. Factors Influencing Success Several factors can influence the success rate of these patterns: -The trader's ability to execute the strategy correctly -Market conditions at the time the triangle formed -Market liquidity -Overall market sentiment Important Points to Consider -Triangles are considered reliable continuation patterns, especially in trending markets. -The ascending triangle in an uptrend is statistically more reliable than the descending triangle. -To validate the pattern, the price must touch at least twice each of the upper and lower lines. -An increase in volume during the breakout is an important confirmation sign. Strategies to improve the chances of success -Wait for the triangle to fully form before entering a position1. -Confirm the breakout with a close above/below the resistance/support level. -Use additional technical indicators to confirm the signal. -Pay attention to the volume, which should increase during the breakout. Conclusion Although ascending and descending triangles have relatively high success rates, it is important to use them in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and to take into account the overall market context to maximize the chances of success.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
3
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading. When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections. Meaning of the 45 degree line: The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market. Main characteristics -Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart. -Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time. -Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction. Use in Technical Analysis Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways: -Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong. -Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend. -Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line. -Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis. Integration with other tools The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy. In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
Classical example of Elliott waveClassical example of Elliott wave. Wave 2 retraced to 61.8% forming Flat correction. Wave 3 extended to 161.8% forming a normal or trending impulse. Then wave 4 retraced to 23.6% in Zig-zag form. (This fulfilled the Rule of Alternation) Wave 5 retraced exactly to its minimum target of 127% retracement. Where cluster of 200% extension was also there. Wave 5 formed in typical Ending diagonal format. Here bigger wave 1 completed. Now fall will come in NUVAMA forming bigger wave 2.
NSE:NUVAMAEducation
by theprofityogi
9
Part 1: Option Selling: A Simple Way to Earn Consistent PremiumsWe’ll explore the top 7 option-selling strategies on the NSE (National Stock Exchange) that could help traders target up to 10% monthly returns per Month on their capital. Option selling is an advanced strategy that can generate consistent income, but it’s important to balance high rewards with the right risk management. Whether you are new to options or an experienced trader, this guide will provide an overview of each strategy, rated based on its risk, reward, and suitability for achieving your financial goals. Option Selling on NSE: A Simple Way to Earn Consistent Premiums Introduction Option selling is a great way to make steady income on the NSE. Instead of waiting for big market moves, you can sell options and collect premium upfront. It’s a strategy that benefits from time decay, meaning the longer the option sits without action, the more money you can make. Let’s break down why it works and why traders love it on the NSE. What is Option Selling? When you sell an option, you’re giving someone the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price. In return, you get paid a premium upfront. As long as the market stays within a certain range, you keep that money. Selling a Call: You profit if the price stays below a certain level. Selling a Put: You profit if the price stays above a certain level. It’s simple – the less the market moves, the more you earn. Why Traders Choose Option Selling 1. Immediate Income You get paid right away when you sell an option. No waiting for market moves, just steady income. 2. Time is Your Friend As time passes, options lose value due to time decay. This works in your favor as a seller, since the option becomes less likely to be exercised. 3. High Win Rate You don’t need big price moves. As long as the market stays within a range, you win. 4. Control Risk with Spreads You can limit your risk by using spreads, where you buy another option to protect yourself if the market moves too much. Why the NSE is Ideal for Option Selling: High Liquidity: Options like Nifty and Bank Nifty have a lot of buyers and sellers, so trades are easy to make.Low Capital Requirement: You need less money to sell options on the NSE compared to other strategies.Risk Control: With the wide variety of options, you can set up trades that limit your risk.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by Trade-Technique
3
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in tradingThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements. Highlights 📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis. 📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points. 🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern. 📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique. 💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%. 🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments. 🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding. Key Insights 📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective. 📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success. 🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis. 📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis. 💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness. 🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements. 🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills. __________________________________________________________________ The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach: How it works The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions. These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals. The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market. Advantages Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry. Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement. Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open. Complementary Tools The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness: Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions. Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points. Important Considerations This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions. It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range. Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
3
Bitcoin Crash Incoming? | Elliott Wave Theory Market ForecastGreetings, fellow traders, In this post, I employ "Elliott Wave Theory" to analyze and predict Bitcoin's price movements. The decision to utilize this theory stems from its robust framework for interpreting market cycles, which is essential for precise forecasting in the volatile cryptocurrency market. 1️⃣ The value of an asset directly reflects the sentiment of investors participating in the market. 2️⃣ When investors are optimistic, increased demand naturally drives prices up, while fear among investors leads to price declines. 3️⃣ Prices are a direct representation of investor sentiment, and the "Elliott Wave Theory" is a framework that patterns these price movements. ✅ Conclusion By applying the "Elliott Wave Theory," it is possible to anticipate Bitcoin's next move. Therefore, let's now dive deep into the "Elliott Wave Theory" to both predict Bitcoin's next movements and gain a thorough understanding of this theory. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H This chart review covers the period from January 24, 2024, to March 14, 2024. During this timeframe, a rare "Double Extended Impulse Wave" pattern appeared, characterized by an extended 5th wave. The supporting evidence for this pattern is as follows: 1️⃣ A breakout from the 1-3 trendline. 2️⃣ The 3rd wave extended beyond 1.618 times the length of the 1st wave. 3️⃣ The 5th wave extended beyond 1.618 times the length of the 3rd wave. 4️⃣ The 4th wave took longer to develop compared to the 2nd wave. I will explore these points in greater detail with the accompanying chart analysis below. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H This chart includes the evidence discussed earlier, specifically the first point mentioned. (Reference: 1️⃣) In wave analysis, trendlines play a crucial role. A break in the trendline often signifies the end of a wave or highlights the unique characteristics of that wave. In this post, we'll focus on the waves marked on the chart, so please pay close attention to the attached chart. The extension of the 5th wave is significantly influenced by the trendline connecting the peaks of the 1st and 3rd waves. This trendline is especially important in the context of a "Double Extended Impulse Wave." A "Double Extended Impulse Wave" indicates a strong buying momentum in a bull market or a strong selling momentum in a bear market. Therefore, it is expected that the upper trendline (the 1-3 trendline) would be breached as the wave progresses. (leading to a sharp rise in a bull market or a steep fall in a bear market). Please refer to the chart provided above. There are five instances of "Over shooting" , indicating a strong bullish market. This example shows how a single trendline can help identify the market's strength, weakness, and the type of wave pattern in play. Now, let's move on to the next chart. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H This chart includes the evidence discussed earlier, specifically the second and third points mentioned. (Reference: 2️⃣3️⃣) Additionally, this chart illustrates the internal Fibonacci ratios of the extended impulse wave. The characteristics of the internal Fibonacci ratios for an extended 5th wave in an impulse wave are as follows: (Satisfied: ✔️ / Not Satisfied: ✖️) ✔️ The 3rd wave rises between 100% and 261.8% of the length of the 1st wave. ✔️ The 5th wave rises 161.8% of the (0-3) length, measured from the end of the 4th wave. (It should be shorter than 261.8%.) ✔️ The 5th wave is longer than the shorter of 100% of the (0-3) length and 161.8% of the 3rd wave. Since this wave satisfies all the above conditions, it is highly likely to be a Double Extended Impulse Wave with an extended 5th wave. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H This chart represents the external Fibonacci ratios of the extended impulse wave. (For an impulse wave with an extended 5th wave, the external ratios are considered more reliable than the internal ratios.) The characteristics of the external Fibonacci ratios for an extended 5th wave in an impulse wave are as follows: (Satisfied: ✔️ / Not Satisfied: ✖️) ✔️ The length of the 5th wave, measured from the end of the 3rd wave, forms at 100%, 161.8%, or 261.8% of the (0-3) length. Since this wave satisfies all the conditions, it is highly likely to be a "Double Extended Impulse Wave" with an extended 5th wave. (The author also considers the external ratios to be highly reliable.) — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 8H This chart includes the fourth piece of evidence mentioned earlier (Reference: 4️⃣). One of the most essential concepts in "Elliott Wave Theory" is "The Rule of Alternation." This principle is foundational to understanding market movements and is critical to the rules governing wave progression. Without it, Elliott Wave Theory would lose much of its practical value. "The Rule of Alternation" is most clearly demonstrated in the period of corrective waves. In the chart provided above, you’ll notice a comparison between the length of the 2nd wave and the 4th wave. Typically, before an extended wave appears, the market tends to undergo a longer or deeper correction. In this case, the 4th wave is noticeably longer than the 2nd wave, which satisfies this condition. This observation significantly increases the reliability of the wave pattern. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 1D Now, let's discuss the potential future direction. If the low point of the 5th wave within the extended impulse wave breaks, it is likely that this impulse wave marks the final wave of a larger wave pattern. In simpler terms, the 5-wave extended impulse wave we've discussed so far may represent the last wave of the current upward trend. To put it even more clearly, if the price falls below the $50,922.5 level, there is a high probability that the market has transitioned into a downtrend. Please refer to the following chart for further details. — ✔️BTCUSDT.P / BINANCE / 1D Based on the assumption that the market has transitioned into a downtrend, I’ve constructed the following scenario. It appears that a Corrective Wave (Flat) has already occurred, and the market is currently experiencing a correction in response to this wave (indicated by the red dotted line). According to this scenario, even if the price experiences an upward movement, it is likely to be a technical rebound within the broader context of a continuing downtrend. — Conclusion Today, we applied the Elliott Wave Theory to the actual Bitcoin chart to analyze the market. I made every effort to maintain an objective perspective. I am aware that many traders and investors are anticipating a continued upward trend. However, my intent in presenting a bearish scenario was not to gain attention, but rather to analyze the market as objectively as possible. It’s important to approach the market rationally, rather than simply calling for a rise without substantial evidence. I encourage you all to remain wise traders and investors who do not succumb to 'FOMO' (Fear of Missing Out) and always maintain an objective view of the market. Thank you for taking the time to read this post. If you found this analysis helpful, I would greatly appreciate it if you could give it a "boost." Should there be significant interest in this post, I'll consider creating follow-up analyses.
Education
by Killer_Whales
2
Combining Fundamental & technical Analysis to pick great stocksHello, One of the most often asked question is how I conduct my market research and today I will be trying to answer the question in a simple way. Below is my process flow 1: Screening Potential Stocks Purpose: Narrow down the list of stocks to focus on those that meet specific criteria. Method: Use a stock screener to filter stocks based on factors like market capitalization, industry, financial ratios, etc. Sometimes, I research a stock based on recent developments or personal interest. For our case you can find the stocks screener via link here www.tradingview.com . This screener allows you to filter stocks across different countries and apply various metrics to find potential investment opportunities. 2: Industry Research Purpose: Understand the industry landscape and identify key trends. Method: Use paid services, data terminals, expert insights, and accessible news sources to gather information about the industry. Keeping up-to-date with industry news is crucial for insights. A great recourse to use when trying to understand the industry is the spark via link www.tradingview.com This will be very key because it simplifies the industry and breaks how the peers are also performing. 3: Assessing Investment Feasibility and Risks Purpose: Evaluate the feasibility of a company’s plans, potential risks, and its ability to execute effectively. Method: Examine the company’s strategic priorities, planned capital expenditures, and historical performance. Assess whether the company has a track record of successfully executing similar strategies or acquisitions. 4: Analyzing Financial Performance Purpose: Understand the company's financial health and value. Method: Look at long-term ROI metrics, such as Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), and Return on Equity (ROE). Conduct peer analysis by comparing these metrics with similar companies in the industry. Analyzing a company’s financial statements is key to understanding its performance. TradingView offers a detailed breakdown of financial statements over comparative years. For example, see the financials for Bharti Airtel www.tradingview.com These dashboards include additional metrics that can provide deeper insights into a company's performance. more metrics to help you better understand the companies are incorporated in the dashboards. 5: Valuation Analysis Purpose: Determine if the stock is fairly priced relative to its peers and historical data. Method: Use relative valuation methods, including Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, EV/EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow Yield. Compare these metrics to historical figures and industry benchmarks to assess valuation. 6: Identifying Competitive Advantages (Moat) Purpose: Find companies with sustainable competitive advantages that protect them from competition. Method: Identify unique features or barriers that provide the company with a competitive edge. Look for aspects that align with Warren Buffett’s concept of a “moat,” such as brand strength, cost advantages, or proprietary technology. 7: Monitoring and Watchlisting Purpose: Keep track of potential investment opportunities and be prepared to act on them. Method: Add promising stocks to a watch list. Monitor their performance and news. Be ready to take advantage of price dips due to market events, ensuring the impact is not material to the company's fundamentals. 8: Organizing and Documenting Research Purpose: Ensure research is accessible and easy to reference in the future. Method: Summarize findings in bullet points, using frameworks like SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats). Create a checklist of factors to consider for each company, allowing for a structured and repeatable research process. 9: Continuous Review Purpose: Stay informed and adaptable in investment decisions. Method: Regularly review research and stock performance to ensure no critical updates are missed. Adjust investment thesis based on new information or changes in the company’s fundamentals. 10: Technical Analysis Using Wave Theory Purpose: Predict future price movements and identify potential buying or selling opportunities. Method: Utilize Elliott Wave Theory, which is a form of technical analysis that identifies recurring price wave patterns in financial markets. The theory suggests that market prices move in predictable cycles of five waves (impulsive) and three waves (corrective), driven by investor psychology and market sentiment. By analyzing these wave patterns, traders and analysts can forecast potential market trends and turning points. Combining wave theory with other technical indicators can enhance the accuracy of predictions and support informed decision-making. the chart shows that the price of the stock is at the top & although all fundamentals might lead to it being a great company, buying at the top is not wise. Wait for correction before buying. Goodluck!
Editors' picks
NSE:BHARTIARTLEducation
by thesharkke
12
A simple guide to coming up with an investment OpportunityHello, 1. Understand the Business Before committing your money to any investment, the first and most crucial step is to thoroughly understand the company you’re considering. Below are some of the things you carefully need to look at. Business Model: Start by breaking down the company’s business model. How does the company generate revenue? What are its primary products or services? In our case here; Adani Wilmar Ltd. provides edible oil, vanaspati and specialty fats. The firm offers vanaspati, packed basmati rice, pulses, soya chunks, besan and specialty fats, lauric range products, castor oils, oleo chemicals and non-GMO soya products. More analysis on the revenues & expenses of the company is also very key. All this data can be found on the Tradingview website under financials. Once you have understood the companies moat, now its time to move to technical analysis. Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate and predict the future price movements of financial assets, like stocks, by analyzing past market data, primarily price and volume. Technical analysis is very important since all market information has been priced in the stock market price. Below is a past chart for the company adani Wilnar. The chart shows that the company has moved from the bottom to the top and back to the bottom. From our Tradingview chart it's possible to identify the trend as well as the time used for each move. This will be very key as we build our trading bias. From our chart, its easy to see the time taken for each move and the highest/lowest prices. Our chart easily communicates that the stock has been on a sideways move for over 500 days. Very key to note is that the stock is also trading at the bottom. This makes it at a great buy point. Next is to identify the patterns forming on the chart. In our chart the stock is forming a corrective wave for a buy to the upside. My buy areas would be around 320 with my first target at IRN 500. I shall relook at the stock once we hit those areas. Recommendation Based on the analysis, consider buying Adani Wilmar Ltd. stock at around IRN 320, with a target to sell at IRN 500. Monitor the stock closely, especially as it approaches the target, to reassess your position. Good luck!
Editors' picks
NSE:AWLEducation
by thesharkke
5
Stay Ahead: Essential Tips to Avoid Trading PitfallsHello TradingView Community! I'm excited to share some valuable insights on trading pitfalls and how to navigate them effectively. Trading in financial markets can be a challenging journey, but understanding common pitfalls and methods to avoid them can significantly enhance your success. Here are 10 pitfalls traders often encounter and actionable strategies to help you steer clear of them: Having No Trading Plan: Entering trades without a plan can lead to impulsive decisions. Develop a clear trading plan outlining your goals, strategies, entry and exit points, and risk management. Using Strategies That Don't Match Your Personality: Align your trading strategies with your personality, risk tolerance, and lifestyle. A good match helps you stay consistent and focused. Having Unrealistic Expectations: Set realistic goals based on your initial capital and risk tolerance. Trading is not a quick path to wealth, so be patient and persistent. Taking Too Much Risk: Avoid over-leveraging and using excessive position sizes. Implement risk management techniques like stop-loss orders and diversification. Not Having Rules to Follow: Create a set of trading rules to guide your decisions. These rules provide structure and help you stay disciplined. Not Being Flexible to Market Conditions: Adaptability is key in trading. Monitor the markets and adjust your strategies as conditions change. Failing to Take Responsibility for Your Results: Own your successes and mistakes. This mindset empowers you to learn, grow, and improve your trading. Being Addicted to Volatility: While volatility can be exciting, avoid chasing it for thrills. Focus on making well-reasoned decisions based on your plan. Not Having a Process to Keep Track of Your Performance: Maintain detailed records of your trades and their outcomes. Analyze this data to identify patterns and refine your strategies. Not Dealing with Your Emotional Risk: Emotions can cloud your judgment in trading. Practice emotional intelligence and techniques like meditation or journaling to stay composed. Neglecting Proper Research and Due Diligence: Relying solely on tips or rumors can lead to poor decisions. Conduct thorough research and due diligence on potential trades and investments. Overcomplicating Your Trading Strategy: Complex strategies may not always lead to better results. Simplify your approach to focus on proven methods and avoid overanalyzing the market. Ignoring the Importance of Continuous Learning: The markets evolve, and so should your knowledge and strategies. Stay updated on market trends and continuously educate yourself to stay ahead. There is no trade without a stop-loss: This point emphasizes the importance of having a stop-loss in place before entering any trade. It highlights risk management as a fundamental part of trading, ensuring that you have a clear exit strategy to limit potential losses. If you have to re-analyze charts after being in a trade, you might be going in the wrong direction: This point underscores the importance of trusting your initial analysis and trading plan. It warns against second-guessing or changing your plan mid-trade, which could indicate you may be heading in the wrong direction. By implementing these strategies, you can enhance your trading experience and improve your performance over time. Remember, successful trading is a journey that requires discipline, patience, and continuous learning. I hope you find these insights helpful. Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences in the comments. Let's continue to support each other and grow as a community! Happy trading! RK💕 I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Editors' picks
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by RK_Chaarts
13
How to identify a multibagger stock?Ways to identifty a multibagger and a good stock for positional trade: The stock should fulfill the following criteria 1.It should be from a booming sector and the broader index should be uptrending 2.The relative strength of the stock to Nifty 50 should be in uptrend 3.RSI should be above 40 4.The stock should be in a stage 2 uptrend structure (breakout with good volumes + consolidation --> breakout with good volumes as shown in the structure of sun pharma) 5.The stock should have low volume consolidation. Many more examples are there from the realty sector and few from the financial sector and I will be uploading them very soon FOLLOW me to get notified when i upload a new idea Till then, Happy Trading :)
Editors' picks
NSE:SUNPHARMAEducation
by keshevdugar
106
The Jan to Dec of Technical Analysis - 1 strategy per month1. January - The Value at Play Before we start discussing the different technical chart patterns, we need to have some clarity on how buying and selling happens on stocks and options. Every trade has a buyer or seller. That means at a specific point in time, for a specific price there are 2 conflicting thoughts Someone who thinks the price is too cheap Someone who thinks the price is damn expensive The guy who thinks the stock/option is cheap is ready to buy and the guy who thinks it is expensive and it is a good time to sell. Just think, how is it that two people can have conflicting mindsets about the same instrument at the same time? I am 100% sure that both of them cannot be right, one of them is making a wrong decision. Over time - 5 minutes, 50 minutes, 5 hours, 50 hours, 5 days, 50 days, or 500 days - whatever the period be, that particular instrument will tick away from the quoted price - either move up or move down. This leads to the important question - what is the fair value? If you have an internal price gauging mechanism - you can quickly calculate if the price quoted is below or above the fair value. Wow, that looks exciting - can you give me the shortcut to calculate the fair price? Unfortunately, there is no holy grail that does it for you, over time you need to develop that tool or spreadsheet. Have you heard the saying, “Veterans are good stock pickers” - It is mainly because of their experience in the markets. They have developed the intuition to guess the fair value when they see the ticker tape without relying on a spreadsheet or calculator. The first rule is “Never buy anything at a premium and never sell anything at a discount”. This rule does not guarantee that you will not lose money - but it is a filter that weeds out poor decision-making. The question arises - how do I calculate the fair price of a stock or options strike? A good place to start would be to start reading “The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit (Little Books. Big Profits) by Aswath Damodaran” - you can even finish the book in 2 straight hours. It gives some insights into valuation techniques. Most valuation methods available in the markets are part of “Fundamental Analysis”, you might ask me - “What does that have to do with Technical Analysis?”. My answer is everything. Technical Analysis is the process of guessing the future price by looking at the historical data. But what the stock/option has to do with the price today is mostly due to fundamental reasons. A mix of fundamental + technical study is much better than pure fundamental or pure technical analysis. These days lot of people have turned to options trading as a side gig to make some extra money. Someone would have told them, that it is easy to make money in options trading. The biggest mistake they make would be to short-sell a strike too cheap and buy a strike too pricey. Option premiums do not move in a linear pattern and are totally different from the valuation techniques used to gauge the underlying. If you are able to calculate the fair value of a particular strike with some level of accuracy - then you can avoid selling it cheap and buying it pricey. More often than not, not taking a trade would be the best trade there is. If something is way above your price level, choose not to buy. If way below, choose not to sell. Have faith that a better opportunity will come and gather the courage to skip the trade. There are 2 option types - CALLS and PUTS. The option strikes above the current trading price are called CALLS and the strikes below the price are called PUTS. The premiums of these far-away strikes are not that easy to calculate or guess, mainly because the prices are derived by a few factors like price movements, time, level of uncertainty & the interest rates in the markets. This makes options trading like a double-edged sword. You get it right - it will reward you more than you can imagine. You get it wrong - it will take away what you have and more. I think hard guessing the fair value of a particular strike of a stock or index is 10 times more complicated than assessing the intrinsic value of that index/stock. This means if you took 15mts to find out the fair value of say “PQR” stock, you might take 150+ minutes to assess the price of a strike say 2600 CE when PQR is trading at 2500. The challenge here is that, once you calculate the fair price - the goal post would have shifted. A change in time will affect the strike prices as “time” is a variable that contributes to its value - so it is a moving target. Now tell me, what would you call someone when they say “Options trading is easy”, “You can make 100000 in 1 month with just Rs1000 capital”, “100% guaranteed success in options trading…” etc. The next thing to know is the difference between trading and investing. Both are tools intended to make money but the main difference is the “time” component. Investing is usually done with no particular “time” value in mind whereas trading is done for a specific “time period”. That is why you hear people say, I have bought “XYZ” stock for the long term - Even if it appreciates in price say 10% in 10 days, the investor may not sell it. Partly because they do not want to miss out on further gains after selling. On the other hand, trading is done with a specific time frame in mind. The trader is only worried about the prices during that window. What happens after that is none of this botheration. The fear of missing out seldom affects the trader because they know their next opportunity will come if they keep looking. Time has more relevance & weightage than you can possibly imagine. In fact, price is relative to time and it is not the other way around. You can physically measure this concept in options trading wherein strikes go to zero value on the expiry date. The major index options have weekly expiry and the stock options have monthly expiry. So a particular strike will go from “X” value to “0” value in a week. Also important to note that during this lifecycle the strike could swing between X to 4X to 100X to 0.5X to 0.2X and end at 0 after the expiry. The prices of a strike are much more volatile than their underlying - this is the main reason options trading is a double-edged sword. Generally, people do not respect time. Most of them respect money more than time. The decisions they make are usually to save money even if it means to waste time. If you are into stock markets - that should change. Even though your purpose is to make money - you should give the due credit to the “time factor”. Let me explain with an example. A trader buys 100 qty of ABC at 1500 intending to sell it at 1600 once the results are out. If on the results day the prices drop to 1400 - that trader will say “Let me not book the loss, I will hold it for some more time for the prices to recover”. In this particular instance, the trader is not ready to book the loss but hoping that his money will recover. Most long-term investors are traders who forget to close their trades. A trader has to have a 180-degree opposite mindset of an investor because we are playing with limited resources. If your money is blocked on a particular trade for a period longer than your calculation - then it is 100% true that you will not be able to take another trade when there is an opportunity. No trader in the world has unlimited resources and unlimited leverage but all of them have got the exact same amount of time per day. If you know how to manage the time - the money will find a way. This comes to the final segment of this chapter - “Value at Play”. It means the amount of money adjusted for the time factor to the reward it brings in. You might be familiar with the word “Value at Risk” (VaR). Value at Play is something similar but not measured in the same way. .... to be continued...
TVC:SPXEducation
by viswaram
How TradingView is redefining the chart-analytics spaceIf you are a stock or options trader, you might not have taken the trade without analyzing the charts. Gone are those days when traders punch orders just by looking at the prices. All professional traders prefer to take the shot after viewing the chart and that too after analyzing multiple timeframes. There is one player who has made a heck of a difference in this space, it's TradingView (TV). When I started trading in 2010, I used the broker’s chart platform - it was okay, but I did not know what was missing. Later I switched to a new gen broker and for a while, I was stuck with the ChartIQ platform which the broker provided free of cost. I had heard TradingView’s name then, and also visited their website and compared the plans. I thought, who in their senses would opt for a paid plan of TV when the broker is providing it free of cost? I said to myself - I would never pay for it. Back then I had 5 to 7 indicators on my chart - MACD, Bollinger bands, RSI, EMAs, ADX-DMI, SuperTrend to name a few and my chart was pretty complicated. Just like a handwritten prescription by the doctor, I could not even read what came out from my chart. And predictably the streak of loss-making trades continued. Time passed and maybe I got mature enough to realize that the indicators were not the issue, my interpretation was. The first thing I did was to switch to the free plan of TV. Since it had a limitation of 3 indicators per plan - I had to narrow down my selection of indicators. I was left with 2 EMAs and 1 ADX-DMI that I could use with the free plan. And that restriction became a blessing, my charts were not crowded anymore & the price stood out loud and clear. My loss-making days ended there and I possibly matured as a trader. I did not switch to TV’s paid plan then - because I had no special need for it. That restriction of 3 indicators was what worked for me, a blessing in disguise. Early this year, I switched to one of their platinum brokers - Dhan . This was to get my webhooks experimentation going and it required me to upgrade to a paid plan of TV. Even though I was hesitant, I took that leap of faith and upgraded. Seems like that was the 2nd best decision that I took this year, after switching the broker. Few additional things come to you when you take a paid plan. I got access to add more watchlists and segregate them by themes. One of my recently added watchlists contains more than 249 stocks which I analyze over the weekends. These companies are with Mcap less than 3000 crores and I secretly believe 10 of them could become multibaggers over the next decade. Weeding them out is a pain though. There are 2 features TV provides even on their free plan. Publish Idea Minds Publish Idea - This is where you share your chart, analysis, or idea with the public. You need not be a professional chartist to do it - you can start at an amateur level. As your work inspires others and helps them in their trading, you start gaining their respect. Few of them may even follow you and subscribe to your ideas. You get to choose the directional bias too. If you are long on a scrip, you can mark the “long” green colored button on the last page. If you are bearish, you could select the “short” red button. Minds - TV Minds is a new feature that they introduced, it is like a room where you post commentary while trading. Other traders who are watching the same chart as yours can view, and comment on your mind and it can get pretty interactive. Once posted, it will appear on your public page under the “minds” navigation. I love both these features as they immediately notify your followers via email too. TV minds give the exact feeling of entering a trading room. You get to interact with the experts, take their opinions, and debate a bit. I am not quite sure if these can be done via their mobile app, I use it on their desktop version. And it may take a while for real deep penetration as the majority of traders in India are on a mobile device. What is the feature you liked about TradingView the most?
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by viswaram
TIME CYCLE AND FIBONACCI SPIRAL" GOD MUST BE A MATHEMATICIAN " If we look at the construction of universe and movements of the planets & other celestial objects movements, flowering & fruiting cycles in trees etc. everything has a pattern and they are cyclical in nature. That very same assumption is applied and works well in stock market, commodities and forex as well. Identifying the time zones of a stocks is a pure trial and error method where one needs to find the high and low making cycle of a particular stock manually. Here NLC INDIA LTD has been taken as an example and a Price and Time analysis has been done on monthly chart using Time Zones & Fibonacci Spiral for future support and hypothetical path identification. The lows of the trend labelled as W, X,Y in rectangular spots. Point "X" has been formed 79 Months after the point "W". But magically Point "Y" has been formed after 79 months after Point "X" The highs of the trend are labelled as A & B in circular spot. Point "B" has been formed 79 Months after Point "A". Looking at the cycle of 79 Months in the Lows and Highs Formation we can make an assumption that the next high ( Point "C" ) would be after 79 Months from Point "B" ie. Dec 2023. Fibonacci Spiral is a natural pattern that can be seen everywhere in nature including flowers, pinecones, hurricanes and even huge spiral galaxies in space. This is rarely used but useful pattern in charts for finding expected supports and resistance. In this chart we can see that after the formation of low at Point "Y", with the help of Fibonacci Spiral we have a continuous expected support. Till now after 2.5 Years the monthly closing of a single candle has never been below the Fibonacci Spiral(try to adjust the X axis of the chart incase you don't see a perfect fit) .So the fact if Fibonacci Spiral used wisely can be a useful pattern for finding support and resistance levels cannot be denied. Currently NLC INDIA LTD is at resistance of the trendline drawn from the previous 2 highs ie. Point "A" & "B". Hopefully it will breakout because stock increases at a increasing near its high, which hasn't happened yet with this stock. Till now NLC_INDIA is far away from its expected high according to the time cycle and Trend based fibonacci retracement level. The gann level of 1.33 is at 136.55 by Trend based fibonacci retracement and the expected time is Dec 2023 time cycle. Thus this is how a hypothetical conclusion can be drawn that NLC INDIA LTD will attain a price level of 136.55 by DEC 2023. Recently a study was done on NIFTY, predicting perfectly the low making day and the target date for NIFTY proving that time cycles works very well with indices and stocks.Link has been given below. STUDY & ANALYSIS ADARSH KUMAR DEY
NSE:NLCINDIAEducation
by AdarshDey
9
XAUUSD Elliot Wave LabelingLet’s take this labelling as a case study. The red ABC pattern is a 3-wave pattern. It’s a correction. Corrections happen in waves 2 and 4. This entire correction happened in wave 2. After wave 2 comes wave 3. That sharp upward spike on the right is wave 3. Wave 3 will help price to resume its upward trend. Now, inside that ABC correction is another correction. It’s a 5-wave pattern called a triangle. A triangle is a wave that is always before the last impulse in a given cycle. In this case it happened as wave B which was before the last impulse (wave C). It can also happen as wave 4 which is before the last impulse called wave 5.
PYTH:XAUUSDEducation
by SamaaraDas
How To Trade with Neowave Trading IdeaHello Everyone, Welcome to you all, this is an educational post in which you will learn how to trade with our neowave trading chart. For better understanding also watch the video which will be available soon. See the below image ## This is how a Neowave structure looks in which a stock price goes up and down. ##These no 12345, I called them motive waves mean trending direction. As you can see these are in diffrent colors. Each color represent a trend cycle mean for how many days this particular stocks is going up or down. See the below example ## As you can see in below examples , group of smaller cycles made bigger cycles and bigger cycles made more bigger cycles and so on Example 1 Example 2 ## But this hard to understand for ordinary eyes and neowave coding style is always differ between neowave analyst also. For one neowave analyst one trend is short and for other it can be intraday.it just there perspective. For every other person 12345 is create confusion, hard to tell how long this trend will go up. you just dont know this 12345 is short term cycle or longterm cycle. To solve this i am changing coding style ##As name represent itself its cycles s for short cycles, m for medium cycles and l for longterm cycles. see the below chart Now see the below image for another part of neowave which is called correction ## As you know every trending cycles, there comes an consolidation period in which price gives some retracement but never retraced 100 percent of previous trend. This consolidation is represent as correction in neowave. ## This correction comes in same cycles in which the cycles was trend. As you can see short cycles trend in the image, after s5 there comes a flat pattern which is labbeld as SC1, this c stand for correction.same for ther cycles. These are the list of the cycles which will be labbled in my chart. See the below chart for complete list. Now next part is important for you. These are the expected time frame for the repected cycles. If you love the post than give it a boost and keep following us for more trading idea. Thank You
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Neowave-forecast
2
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)The US Dollar Index (also known as DXY or USDX) measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. Therefore, it provides us with an insight into whether the dollar is strengthening or weakening compared to other major currencies. This index has a positive correlation with currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency. Conversely, there is an inverse correlation. The DXY or USDX measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against 6 currencies. The currency with the most weight in its composition is the euro. It is a key indicator in analyzing the value of the dollar to determine its trend. Additionally, it can be used to study the global macroeconomic situation, as well as to gauge the level of economic and financial uncertainty at a particular moment. (🇮🇳)
TVC:DXYEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading