Gold strategy next week January 13 - 20
Reasons Behind GOLD's Strong Rebound Despite Positive NFP and Unemployment Rate Data
After the release of the NFP and UR data, which showed solid job creation last month, Gold initially dropped sharply following the news.
However, investors soon reassessed the data and took a closer look at the revisions to previous months' figures. The job creation figure for the prior month (November) was revised downward significantly from the initially reported numbers. Combined with October’s revisions, the total downward adjustment for October and November amounted to approximately 800K jobs—a substantial revision!
This led investors to speculate that December’s job creation numbers, despite appearing strong now, might also be subject to downward revisions at the beginning of next month. Should this happen, the actual job creation for December might turn out to be less impressive than currently reported, or possibly even weaker. This “history repeating itself” factor influenced the market sentiment.
As a result, Gold staged a strong rebound after its initial sharp decline following the release of the data.
Outlook for Gold in the Coming Week
Gold is likely to revisit its recent high in the 2718–2721 range, given last week’s upward momentum. This level seems easily achievable. However, Gold has seen substantial gains in recent weeks, and a correction might be on the horizon. Such a pullback could fill liquidity gaps below, building stronger upward momentum to either retest or break through the all-time high resistance zone.
Key Events to Watch in January
Trump's Return to the White House: The inauguration could bring significant market volatility as we approach the end of the month.
Asian New Year Holidays: The late-January holidays could cause a period of reduced liquidity.
Given these factors, Gold may not yet have enough momentum to break through its all-time high. A correction is likely in the next 1–2 weeks, presenting opportunities for sell positions.
Trading Strategy
The key levels have already been marked on the chart. Specific entries will depend on daily price movements, and further updates will be provided accordingly. For now, focus on the resistance levels where price might react and drop back.
Take note!
After the release of the NFP and UR data, which showed solid job creation last month, Gold initially dropped sharply following the news.
However, investors soon reassessed the data and took a closer look at the revisions to previous months' figures. The job creation figure for the prior month (November) was revised downward significantly from the initially reported numbers. Combined with October’s revisions, the total downward adjustment for October and November amounted to approximately 800K jobs—a substantial revision!
This led investors to speculate that December’s job creation numbers, despite appearing strong now, might also be subject to downward revisions at the beginning of next month. Should this happen, the actual job creation for December might turn out to be less impressive than currently reported, or possibly even weaker. This “history repeating itself” factor influenced the market sentiment.
As a result, Gold staged a strong rebound after its initial sharp decline following the release of the data.
Outlook for Gold in the Coming Week
Gold is likely to revisit its recent high in the 2718–2721 range, given last week’s upward momentum. This level seems easily achievable. However, Gold has seen substantial gains in recent weeks, and a correction might be on the horizon. Such a pullback could fill liquidity gaps below, building stronger upward momentum to either retest or break through the all-time high resistance zone.
Key Events to Watch in January
Trump's Return to the White House: The inauguration could bring significant market volatility as we approach the end of the month.
Asian New Year Holidays: The late-January holidays could cause a period of reduced liquidity.
Given these factors, Gold may not yet have enough momentum to break through its all-time high. A correction is likely in the next 1–2 weeks, presenting opportunities for sell positions.
Trading Strategy
The key levels have already been marked on the chart. Specific entries will depend on daily price movements, and further updates will be provided accordingly. For now, focus on the resistance levels where price might react and drop back.
Take note!
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