No it's not over yet-last warning

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold 0.28% -0.29% -0.08% -1.31% -1.65% , silver 0.54% -0.81% -0.88% 0.14% -0.53% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.
Following a to a great degree bearish week, we at long last observed a touch of quality in the valuable metals showcase on Friday. Notwithstanding mining stocks – at last – revived. While all the critical subtle elements appear to originate from gold , silver , mining stocks, or one of their proportions, one ought not disregard the business sectors that effect the above seriously. The most essential of these business sectors is the USD Index, and it simply framed a bearish falling star candle as far as the week after week value changes. That is an exceptionally bearish advancement, which – on the off chance that it is trailed by a sizable decrease in the USDX – is probably going to trigger a ground-breaking rally in the valuable metals area.

We may have surely observed an imperative bearish sign in light of the week after week value changes in the USD Index, however it has positively no suggestions for our exchanging positions in the valuable metals division. Indeed, it scarcely changes the viewpoint for the USDX. The plain here and now suggestions are bearish . Yet, the above simply isn't the full truth. The full truth is that while we may see a move lower, it's probably going to be little. Besides, it's something very normal as of now.

The USD Index has as of late broken over the rising wedge design or more the neck level of the turn around head-and-shoulders design. This implies one can anticipate that the USDX will decrease back to the beforehand broken levels and to confirm them as help. What's more, there will be nothing bearish about it.

These two levels make the close term drawback target zone and is near where the USDX shut on Friday – somewhere in the range of 95.4 and 95.7. Since the USDX simply shut at around 96, the potential size of the downswing is somewhere in the range of 0.3 and 0.6. At the end of the day, the USDX is probably going to at most rehash its Friday's decay and maybe it will decrease by just about portion of its Friday's decrease.

Is this a considerable decay? No. Thusly, is it liable to trigger a generous (!) rally in the valuable metals or mining stocks? No.

Gold has not just broken beneath the past lows (counting the late-January 2017 low as far as the day by day shutting costs), however it likewise shut the week underneath them. The breakdowns underneath the past lows give off an impression of being affirmed. With gold in the red territory that incorporates no critical help, and given the solid medium-term downtrend, we can expect another wave down, despite the fact that the RSI is as of now extremely oversold.

The white metal moved underneath the rising red help line and shut the week beneath it. It didn't figure out how to promptly break beneath the July 2017 low, however that was not required for the viewpoint to stay bearish . The decrease was and still is exceptionally bearish (simply look how close silver is to its 2015 low), however no market can climb or down in a straight line. The July 2017 low was one of the levels that could have created an interruption – and it did. It was definitely not a beyond any doubt wager and changing the positions wasn't advocated in our view, particularly that the circumstance in the USD Index indicated significantly higher USDX esteems with just a probability of seeing lower esteems quickly.

The RSI marker in light of the week after week costs is beneath 30, yet it's not yet at the levels that beforehand activated bounce back in 2013. Therefore, we hope to see more shortcoming . Maybe not today, but rather doubtlessly this week.

For a long time we have been underlining that there is nothing extremely bullish about the mid 2018 rally in the valuable metals part and in the gold stocks to gold proportion. On account of the last it was only a check of the past breakdown underneath the critical 2016 base. The breakdown was undoubtedly confirmed by a move back to the beforehand broken level and the enormous medium-term decay proceeded with presently. What we are seeing presently is a characteristic aftereffect of the above.

Much the same as it is the situation with the HUI Index, its proportion is additionally underneath the key close-by help levels and the closest solid help is at the 2015 lows. This makes the suggestions for the short and medium term extremely bearish .

We have quite recently observed a week by week close beneath the most minimal week after week close of 2015, which is a vital breakdown. This move isn't yet affirmed, however it's unquestionably present. Therefore, the ramifications of the proportion and its present position with respect to the 2015 lows are bearish , not bullish .


Summing up, there are various extremely important reasons because of which the valuable metals part is probably going to move bring down in the next many months and a week ago's decays demonstrate that the tremendous slide is unmistakably in progress. At the end of the day, it appears that our sizable benefits on the short positions will turn out to be much greater shortly. We may have a neighborhood base not long from now, however, and we'll keep you educated in regards to the likelihood of seeing a greater turnaround.

Long term positions

ASSET--XAGUSD( Silver )-Inactive

Sell Limit Price: 14.900

Take Profit: 12.80

Stop Loss: 15.560


Sell limit Price: 1185

Take Profit: 1080

Stop Loss: 1221
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.06% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
Trade active: we are opening silver trade-ASSET--XAGUSD(Silver)-Active-(long term)

Sell Limit Price: 14.750

Take Profit: 12.80

Stop Loss: 15.560

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