NeerajPandey
Short

profits are likely to change from being huge to being enormous

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold 0.35% , silver 0.21% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.

We are moving the stop-loss orders lower, which implies that we are viably securing more benefits, while all the while giving them a chance to grow them further.we are locking substantial profits in our ongoing silver position while we believe that the decline has just been started in precious metal sector,it's always good to have an opportunity to lock profit and renter the market again,

we truly believe that silver is likely to slide well below the December 2015 bottom, likely to the mid-2009 bottom ($12.44)-our first target in a couple of months and our profit on the current position will be enormous at that time,however we are flexible enough to change,exit or modify our positions if there'll be any need to do so,

Only a couple of months prior silver was exchanging above $17 and numerous financial specialists and investigators were persuaded that the white metal was going to rally by and by following a while of combination. We cautioned you that it wasn't likely. We painted an extremely bearish picture at the silver costs and we were giggled at for saying that the white metal could even decline underneath $10.

Silver is most of the way there and the individuals who suspected that the December 2015 value lows were the last base are probably going to be extremely astounded. Maybe as ahead of schedule as this week.

Prior to moving to THE breakdown, how about we investigate the breakdown. Silver simply moved beneath the mid-August and the July 2017 lows. The breakdown was enormous and plainly obvious as far as both intraday lows and shutting costs. Silver even quickly moved beneath $14.

From the long term perspective, obviously something considerably greater is occurring. Silver is declining after the prior breakdown beneath the rising red help line and its confirmation. This is in all likelihood simply the beginning of the move, since no real help was come to (with the exception of the round $14 level) and mining stocks appear to be in a freefall too – similarly as they were in 2013.

How low can silver move? Since gold is probably going to move to its December 2015 base generally soon and silver is probably going to fail to meet expectations, silver is probably going to move beneath its December 2015 base. In other to check how low silver could slide, how about we utilize a similar procedure that we utilized yesterday while deciding the following significant value focus for gold .

In particular, we will construct the forecast with respect to the manner in which the examples normally work. The moves that take after examples have a tendency to be comparative in size to the moves that go before them. Silver declined by around 17.52% (June top – mid-August base) before the example, so on the off chance that it decreases correspondingly (checking from the late August best), we're probably going to see silver at $14.95 * (1 – 17.52%) = $12.33 generally soon. As such, in light of the ongoing example, silver is probably going to slide well beneath the December 2015 base, prone to the mid-2009 base ($12.44). What's more, – our subscribers – have been set up for this projection for over multi month.

Having said that, how about we investigate gold .

When we expounded on the cost of the yellow valuable metals yesterday, it was exchanging at $1,195, and it's exchanging at $1,194 at the present time. Thusly, it appears that very little changed.

Yet, that is not reality. In all actuality gold decline beneath the flag pattern and it keeps on exchanging underneath it likewise today. Recently, it may have been the situation that the breakdown was coincidental, however it's improbable in light of what we're seeing at the present time. Thus, the viewpoint is currently more bearish than it was around 24 hours prior.

There's likewise something that we might want to include that is obvious from the long-term perspective.


The snapshot of 2013 when the unpredictability expanded to the present level was just before the most unstable piece of the decline. We checked the two circumstances with vertical, red, dashed lines. The ongoing decrease has been very enduring, similarly as what we had seen in late 2012 and mid 2013. On the off chance that history is to rehash itself – and it's probably going to – then we are just before a major dive in the cost of gold and in whatever is left of the valuable metals part.

Additionally, before moving to mining stocks, if it's not too much trouble take note of that we extended the bottoming region so it likewise covers the months after October. Gold is ledge liable to base toward the beginning of October, however in the event that it takes a couple of additional weeks, it won't negate our investigation.

Gold stocks have broken to new 2018 lows and there is no solid help the distance down to the 2016 lows. Also, the move in the vicinity of 100 and higher costs in 2016 was brisk, which makes it likely that the decrease will be quick too.

The drawback target in view of the rehash of the move that went before the example gives us an objective that is much lower than the present cost, yet not yet beneath the 2015 and 2016 lows. Here are the points of interest:

The HUI declined by around 23.88% (July top – mid-August base) before the example, so on the off chance that it decreases also (checking from the late August best), we're probably going to see the HUI at 150.77 * (1 – 23.88%) = 114.77 moderately soon. At the end of the day, in view of the ongoing flag pattern example, the HUI Index is probably going to slide nearly to the 2015/2016 bottoms. Nonetheless, the vicinity of the 100 level and the way that it filled in as the last target influences us to surmise this is the genuine close term target.

We don't feel this is the last focus for this decrease, though.If gold is probably going to move underneath its 2015 base and gold stocks are failing to meet expectations gold to a major degree, at that point they are probably going to decline beneath their 2015/2016 bottoms too.

On the above long term chart we see that there are two record esteems that could stop the decrease once the HUI breaks underneath 100. The upper target is 80 and the lower target is 60. Indeed, we know, they are silly. In any case, on the grounds that an objective is strange, it doesn't mean it's off-base. Who might have imagined that the HUI would drop to 150 of every 2008 when it was exchanging over 500 only a couple of months sooner? The HUI's esteem declined to under 1/3 of the underlying worth. The latest neighborhood top was somewhat over 200. 200/3 is somewhat under 67, so a move to 60 here would be tuned in to something that as of now occurred precisely 10 years prior.

The 80 level depends on the similarity to the 2013 decrease , the 2001 best and the mid 2002 base (it filled in as obstruction in 2000 too). It's likewise affirmed by the Fibonacci augmentation (the measure of the past decrease increased by 1.618) that it is similar to what occurred in 2013. We denoted the above with a great Fibonacci retracement apparatus, however this time it is the "61.8% retracement" that is the information (the mid-2012 and late-2016 bottoms). The objective in 2013 was slightly over 200 and it's presently somewhat over 80.

The 60 level depends on two 2001 bottoms, the 1998, and 1999 bottoms. In addition, this level is shown by the line that is parallel to the line in light of the 2011 and 2016 tops (most imperative highest points of the previous years) and it's likewise more tuned in to the similarity to the 2008 decrease.

Which of these levels is more probable? The jury is still out, however we ought to have the capacity to tell all the more once gold moves lower. For example, if gold is at about $950 and the HUI is indicating quality at around 90 or somewhere in the vicinity, it will be evident that we ought to anticipate that the last base will occur near 80, not a major slide to 60.

In today's analysis, we would also like to remind you about the big picture. The USD Index is likely repeating its past enormous rallies. based on the similarities of the rally up until this point, it's repeating the 2008, 2010, and 2014-2015 rallies. There were a few correction in the way, yet by and large the USD moved higher without greater decreases. That is precisely what's occurring at the present time and if history is to rehash itself, we ought to anticipate that the USD Index will move at any rate to the 2016-2017 highs, yet more inclined to around 108 the level. The 112 – 120 territory isn't not feasible either.

In any case, the standpoint is exceptionally bullish for the following half a month and the suggestions are extremely bearish for the PM part.
The conclusion-our outlook for Gold 0.35% -0.58% -0.86% -0.46% 0.05% , Silver 0.21% -0.07% -1.14% 0.07% -0.53% and mining stocks is very bearish for the medium and long-term, and it seems gold 0.35% -0.58% -0.86% -0.46% 0.05% is likely to plunge more within next 2.5 weeks and it seems $1130 target is very much likely to reach but it may even drop to $1060.We may touch a local bottom later this month, though and we’ll keep you informed regarding the possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround.

we will keep you informed anyway

many regards-Neeraj Pandey
Our existing positions
ASSET--XAGUSD

Sell Limit Price: 14.900

Take Profit: 12.80

Stop Loss: 14.413(modified)

ASSET-GOLD

Sell limit Price: 1185

Take Profit: 1080

Stop Loss: 1231
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver 0.21% -0.07% -1.14% 0.07% -0.53% 0.13% -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).

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Comments

"Profits from being huge to being enormous" = That's what she said lol. Btw great analysis. You are the kings of gold!
+1 Reply
Really interesting analysis, thank you for sharing.
Reply
NeerajPandey Alfonso30
@Alfonso30, we are happy to
+1 Reply
vibhornagpal NeerajPandey
@NeerajPandey, Seems Gold is taking support at 1193 level, is it still possible that it can go down ?
Reply
NeerajPandey vibhornagpal
@vibhornagpal, yes sir our one more short-term trade seems to hit the t.p @1183.86
Reply
vibhornagpal NeerajPandey
@NeerajPandey, Thanks Sir, your prediction is working nicely..
Reply
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