Traders Queries - October 2022Query 1 I have bought nifty 17750 CE 27th October @ 158 and when market fall, I again bought it @ 48. Can I hold till the month end?
Query 2 : I shorted nifty @ 17200, but market is moving up. Can I carry forward my position as I expect market to fall from 18,000.
Answer for query 1 : Option value erode each and every day. Even though the market went up, the predicted direction is right, because of decay it didn’t give profit as 17750 CE 27th October is trading at 40 now.
Lesson : Option buying gives profit when the movement has momentum in it. During sideways market, option value wont gain, so we have to trade accordingly. We have to think about time decay when we trade in options.
Answer for query 2 : Every trade should have stop and the amount of risk you can take. When we did not respect stop and get out of the trade when
the market is moving in opposite direction of the trade, the loss increases and the capital has the risk of getting wiped out. This happens when we have a biased view about the market. Here the bias is market will fall and we look for the things which support it, which makes us unable to accept
the real facts like 18000 is so far away from 17200 and its not worth taking the risk.
Lesson : Bias formation affects our trade. These are different types of bias, but when we are concentrating on the facts, then it will become visible that our views are biased and we can rectify it.
Community ideas
Rounding Bottom patternHey everyone! 👋
Today we are going to share a quick write-up about the “Rounding bottom” formation, along with a few examples that may help you solidify your understanding of this chart pattern.
Please remember this is an educational post to help all of our members better understand concepts used in trading or investing. This in no way promotes a particular style of trading!
The post will shed some light on the following topics:
➡ Basics and identification of the pattern
➡ Components
➡ Important aspects
What is a Rounding bottom pattern?
• A rounding bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that resembles the shape of the "U".
• Rounding bottom pattern occur at the end of long downtrends and indicate a potential reversal.
• The pattern is also referred to as a saucer bottom due to its resemblance to a saucer.
• Although, the volume and price move in sync but in practice, this can vary widely.
• When the price moves above the neckline, it indicates strength and suggests that the stock may begin a new uptrend.
Components of a Cup and Handle pattern:
A rounding bottom pattern can be divided into three main parts.
• Decline
• Formation of the base
• Advance
Important aspects:
1. Prior Trend: Since it is a bullish reversal pattern, the prior trend must be a downtrend. The low of a rounding bottom should ideally mark a new low or reaction low. The stock may trade sideways or flat for a long duration before the formation of the pattern.
2. Decline: The sell-off or decline that leads to the formation of the low, can take a variety of forms. Sometimes, the down move has many whipsaws while other times, the stock may just trade flat.
3. Low: In general, the pattern resembles a "U" shaped bottom. However, it can also resemble a "V" or a "W," but the low should not be too sharp. In addition to this, there is always a possibility of a new low due to a selling climax.
4. Advance: In general, the formation of the right half of the pattern should take about the same amount of time as the left half. This means that the up move off the lows should take about the same time as the down move. Moreover, the advance shouldn't be too sharp, or else there is a possibility of breakout failure.
5. Breakout: The pattern is confirmed once the price breaks and sustains above the neckline. The price may return to the neckline to test for the demand before continuing upwards.
6. Volume: In general, the volume levels should be
➡ High during the down move
➡ Low during the formation of the base
➡ Rising during the up move
However, these are only guidelines and should not necessarily be taken at face value.
7. Target: Using the measurement objective, the target comes out to be equal to the depth of the base. It can be measured by calculating the distance between the bottom of the base and the neckline.
8. Stop-loss: Ideally, the stop loss is placed at the lowest point of the base. But if the price oscillated up and down a number of times near the neckline, the stop-loss can also be placed below the most recent swing low.
Exhibit: Rounding bottom pattern with a failed breakout
Thanks for reading! As we mentioned before, this isn't trading advice, but rather information about a tool that many traders use. Hope this was helpful!
See you all next week. 🙂
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CHOOSING OPTIONS STRIKEChoosing wrong strike prices can lead to big losses even when our analysis is right. It's due to Theta decay.
So Lets understand some basics of options strike price.
There are three types of strike prices based on their moneyness.
1)ATM (At the Money)
2)OTM (Out of the Money)
3)ITM (In the Money)
FOR CALL OPTIONS :
Lets assume Stock ABC is trading at 150 (spot price). Then,
Spot price = 150
ATM Strike = 150
Any strike above spot price is OTM for call option.
Ex : 160 ,170,180 etc.,
Any strike below spot price is ITM for call option.
Ex : 140, 130, 120 etc.,
FOR PUT OPTIONS :
Stock ABC is trading at 150 (spot price).
Spot price = 150
ATM Strike = 150
Any strike above spot price is ITM for put option.
Ex : 160 ,170,180 etc.,
Any strike below spot price is OTM for put option.
Ex : 140, 130, 120 etc.,
HOW TO CHOOSE THE STRIKE AMONG THE ABOVE THREE MONEYNESS
1)Follow a simple rule, Buy a strike price which is closer to the spot price. "OTM STRIKES ARE BIG NO" .
2) Remember! when we are buying an option, the stock / index needs to move up / down with a good momentum. So that our option will gain some value & we will be in profit.
So it doesn't make sense to buy a OTM call / put. Because if a strike price is far away from spot price, it won't give us much movement due to time decay.
I have even shared my option strike rules as follow.
Friday, Monday & Tuesday = ATM strikes
Wednesday & Thursday = ITM strikes
This is how I used to pick strikes for intraday. The reason is simple because, if we are closer to the expiry (Thursday) the effect of theta decay is very high. Due to which our premiums will not move much even if the stock / index has moved pretty well. By following these rules, our chances of losing money will drop drastically.
Happy Learning & Earning :)
- DivyaaPugal
Bullish and Bearish Harami candles concept Educational Post
Bullish Harami
Bullish Harami is candle stick pattern which shows counter attack by bull on bear entering the support zone.
Significance of candle stick pattern is at support level of charts.
Bullish(Green) candle should gap up from close of bearish(Red) candle and close should be above the median of bearish(red) candle with volume.
Bearish Harami
Bearish Harami is candle stick pattern which shows counter attack by Bear on bulls entering the resistance zone.
Significance of candle stick pattern is at resistance level of charts.
Bearish(red) candle should gap down from close of bullish(green) candle and close should be below the median of bull(green) candle with volume.
If you like the post,Please follow,like and share it.
Happy Trading!!!
Different Methods to Identify Perfect Entries with ConfluenceBasics of Trading and the areas of interest of every trader to have minimum knowledge to understand the market and its movement.
Volume Based Entries
Basics of Volume When the price is trending volume will be above volume moving average that will be considered as trend, when volume is too high in a session thats higher than 3x to volume moving average that will be considered as climax which means maximum orders are filled in the exsisting trend. Apart from stocks if such Climax pattern in volume in any format is seen then consider there might be a reversal soon. If one is trading in the stocks you get to see this ultra high volumes in gap ups and gap downs, now you will have to know what sort of gap it is to take entries which we will discuss in the Gaps later.
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Gaps
Gaps theory needs to be understood properly, over 4 kinds of Gaps are found in charts. Simple understanding follows :
Common Gaps : Normal gaps that happen every day with in a ranging market
Break Away Gaps : If a range/pattern/Support or Resistance is broken with a gap that is called break away gap. This sort of gap happens in the early stages of trend.
Running Gaps : After breakaway gaps rest of the gaps if happened towards the trend is called running gaps. as long as there is an exhaustion gap.
Exhaustion Gaps : This Exhaustion Gap happens either up or down after an up trend or the same in a down trend. These gaps gets filled giving an idea that the trend has ended.
Consolidation Areas
Consolidation areas or the trading ranges are to be considered as Support & Resistance areas to identify for patterns like Triangle, wedge, flag, pennant, or rectangle patterns. good areas to look for gap up or down and volume to identify breakout for the next move or plan for the next session.
Fib Extension & Retracements
Fibonacci extention and retracements is the basic knowledge that any trader who is willing to learn about technical analysis should be considering learning in depth, its a basic tool that gives you a lot of info, Basic knowledge to know is Fibbonacci Retracement is used to identify the entry and Extension is used to identify the exit. levels of interest are called the golden ratio i;e: 38%, 50%, 62% this is where majority of the reversals happen, these can be considered as Support & Resistance zones to look for breakout entries
Support & Resistance
Every traders nightmare is to understand or identify S&R in the initial days of your trading is not because you cannot ... it is because you are too curious, anxious, exited to enter into a trade, once you calm down and try to understand the market its not that hard to identify them ... S&R areas are the reversal zones or breakout zones it is going to be a big topic if tried to explain the whole concept so lets just stick to basics and use pivot high and low and FIB levels as your support and resistance zones for now.
Trendline Breakout
These are first thing that any trader learns try to master them, a perfect trendline is considered a strong support in uptrend or resistance in downtrend when it has respected this line for least 2 times from its start point. A breakout gives you and opportunity to enter in to a trade.
Elliott Wave
This is not considered as entry point in the initial stages of learning but one should know the basics of elliott wave to identify the trend we are in by looking at the leg we are in and you can calculate the trend by given wave length through fibonacci ratios. Only thing that you need to know is that market doesnt move in a straight line like you see in elliott wave picture above there will be waves with in waves.
Try to bring all these together as confluence to understand the market move and take entries.
Note : Train the eye to identify the structure, then comes the logic and explanation.
Correlation between Nasdaq and Indian IT stocksThere is an interdependency between them but not to the extent, that people considered it to be.
Indian IT stocks have shown much resilience and hold their position better despite the sharp fall in the US market.
There are a few challenges to this sector
1. Attrition
2. Usd/INR
3. Fear of recession
In case of recession, it will be beneficial for western countries, they will outsource the workforce, which could ease the pressure on their margins.
Looking at the price structure and valuation of IT stocks,
It seems to receive support at 8-10% below the current value.
Gap up / gap down intraday strategy with simple entry / exitI get queries from a lot of people who don't want to study technical analysis much.
They're just focused on getting a predefined trading strategy, which they can use effectively in the market without looking much at the charts .
So, in this video, I share a strategy which has been given really good results and it works a lot of times and I believe the probability of this particular strategy is close to around 65 to 70%.
It has simple entry and exit rules, and you can only apply this particular strategy when the market opens gap up or gap down.
See, whenever the market opens gap up or gap down, there is high volatile period of the market during the beginning half an hour or an hour.
And in that period of time,if you place a trade, then you have a good probability if market moves as per expectation.
As you can see these days, nifty and back nifty have been creating gap up and gap down opening almost on a daily basis.
In this case, the first rule is that if the market opens gap up by more than half a percent.
So for example, if bank nifty opens gap up by more then 200 points. , then only you can apply this strategy.
And on the other hand, if nifty opens gap up or gap down by more than 50 or 60 points, then only you should think of applying this particular strategy.
Small gaps do not count in this strategy.
So if bank nifty gaps down or gaps up by only 50- 60 points, then avoid this strategy altogether.
See, whenever the market is opening gap up or gap down, there are two possibilities.
The market might continue the current trend.
For example, if the market opens gap up, the chances are that the market might move higher, or the other possibility is that the market might go sideways the whole day.
So ,in this case, whenever you see the market opening gap up or gap down by more than half a percent, just have to follow this simple procedure.
Just plot the 15 minute chart with a 20 exponential moving average.
Why 20 exponential moving average because the market usually gets good support and resistance around the 20 moving average.
You can expect the market to stall around the moving average for a lot of times if you take a trade.
So ,you just have to plot the 15 minute chart, and if the market gaps up or gaps down, you just have to watch the first 15 minute candle.
So if the market opens gap up and it forms a bullish candle.
Then , what you can do is you can sell puts if price breaks the first 15M candle high. You can sell puts with the stop loss at the low of the candle.
If the market comes below the low of the candlestick the first 15 minute bar, then you exit your position and book the loss.
Why sell puts?
The idea behind selling puts is that during the first 15-30 minutes, the volatility is on a very higher side during that period.
And if at that point of time you start to sell options, then with the passage of time, as the market starts to move sideways, the volatility reduces.
And, what occurs is a concept called IV Crush.
The volatility starts to reduce very quickly and that will give you a benefit if you sell a put, even if the market goes sideways.
So for example, the market formed a very big bullish candle, and the criteria is if it crosses the high of the candle ,sell puts .
So, the whole day, if the market is moving sideways/upwards , the volatility crush will start to happen.
And with the passage of time, you'll start to see the benefit of the IV Crush and the time decay.
So this is a very handy strategy which you can apply.
Always remember, keep the stop loss below of the first 15M candle.
It's a very effective technique, and it's based upon gap openings.
And ,the first 15 minutes usually tell us who is on the stronger side, who's winning , buyers or sellers.
So make sure the gap is big and whatever bar is being formed in the first 15 minutes.
If the bar is bullish, you sell a put If the price crosses the high of that candle stick, and stop plus below the low of that candlestick.
It's an effective rule based strategy and you can back test it on nifty and bank nifty.
And you can also check its reliability, its effectiveness, you can also add this particular strategy in your tool kit.
So I hope this strategy will provide some sort of value to you in your trading.
And if you find the video helpful, don't forget to like this and share it and also comment your thoughts.
Thank you very much and take care.
BEGINNERS RULE :1. Before starting any new venture, we must learn the basics of that subject.
So, learn the basic ABCD of trading.
2. Beginners should avoid the Futures and Option (f&o) trading.
First, one needs to get a good grip over the cash equity segment.
3. Learn technical analysis and try to master any one strategy and stick to it.
4. Avoid dependence on anyone for too long,
"Trust your own setup always”
5. Don't be impressed so quickly and start dreaming after seeing other trader's earning or profits screenshot.
6. 'Simplicity is the best policy.' Keep your analysis simple and stick to basics.
7. Backtest your new setup for at least 3 months to find out the Return on Investment (ROI) percentage.
8. Price Action is above all. Don't complicate your study with too many indicators/tools.
We have come here to earn money, not to complete a Ph.D.
9. Avoid business/finance TV channel recommendations.
Don't follow it blindly.
10. Mistakes are fine but try to avoid committing again and again.
11. Use proper and safe trailing stop-loss.
Keep learning and earning.
Happy profit making :)
How the hammer candle stick pattern is formed ??Educational Post
Hammer candle stick pattern is important pattern shows counter attack of bulls.
This pattern has significance when price is near crucial support or near long term moving average.
Hammer shows that bears are unable to beat the bulls and not able to make close in bulls territory.
Bulls also shows their presence when price enters in their territory.
Please like, share and folloew for more such educational posts.
Have a Happy Trading :) !!!
Few Most Profitable Chart Patterns1) Double Top, a Bearish reversal chart pattern
It is a trend reversal chart pattern formed after good bullish price movement (a continuous upward price movement for a good duration) where the upward price movement loses its steam (formed a first top) and it retraces a bit (to neck line or mid point).
Then again it moves in direction of original trend and reaches the first top level there by forming second top . It again cannot move above first top and start moving to neckline (NL).
Once the neck line is broken its fall in price is steep. There starts a downtrend.
Target
The Height of the tops will be taken as a target.
Stoploss
It is recommended to keep a stop loss of 1.5% above the neck line.
2)Double Bottom, a Bullish Reversal Chart pattern
It is a trend reversal chart pattern formed after good bearish price movement (a continuous downward price movement for a good duration) where the downward price movement loses its steam (formed a first bottom) and it retraces a bit (to neck line or mid point).
Then again it moves in direction of original trend and reaches the first bottom level there by forming second bottom . It again cannot move below first bottom and start moving to neckline (NL).
Once the neck line is broken its rise in price is steep. There starts an uptrend.
Target
The Height of the bottoms will be taken as a target.
Stoploss
It is recommended to keep a stop loss of 1.5% below the neck line.
3)Cup & Handle, A Bullish Continuation pattern
It is a pattern where the Price movement of a chart resembles a teacup .
It consist of two parts:
1) A cup:
A cup formation happens when the price moving in a uptrend shows a pull back followed by a consolidation period which makes the bottom of the cup and finally the reverse back to upside continuing the uptrend.
Usually the pattern looks like a 'U' to round bottom. The deeper the 'U' or round shape the reliable the pattern is.
2) A Handle :
After the formation of right highs of a round cup, there is a pull back before continuation of the trend which forms the handle of this pattern. It is formed in the right hand side of the cup.
Entry:
A Neckline breakout supported by huge volumes is the confirmation of this pattern that the previous trend has resumed. Trade should be taken only after the neckline Breakout
Target :
The height of the cup will be taken as a target.
Stoploss:
Stop loss should be placed under the handle low
How to get a 4:1 Risk reward ratio trade in Doller index (DXY)Previously, DXY encountered a fail downside attempt.
Upon reversing, I entered the trade when RMO indicator (RMO by Lazybear) turned green
Stop loss : - Low of the Bar - (Range of the bar)
The index was initially supported by Kijun Sen but later it gave in. Lower Time frame DMI was also choppy. But, I stayed in trade as it didnot hit the SL
I took out the profit at levels mentioned in the chart.
The trade trade was carried with SL below EMA 20 and H2 DMI support.
The trade closed when price broke EMA20 .
Profits were taken at 1.2, 2.4 and 4.4 RR.
My initial target was 2:1 RR. But went very good
📚Learn More💰Earn More - Inverse Head and Shoulders in UNIUSD📚 LEARN MORE
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Inverse Head and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a Valley (left shoulder), followed by a Lower Valley (head), and then another Higher Valley (right shoulder).
A “Neckline” is drawn by connecting the highest points of the two Peaks. Neckline resistance does not need to be strictly horizontal.
This illustrates that the downward trend is coming to an end.
When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in a downtrend, it signifies a major reversal.
The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline resistance.
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
ENTRY:
we put an entry order above the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the lowest point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
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A beginner's guide to trading - Chapter 6On this day let us take an oath to fight and conquer our bad trading habits. Let us take a look about the most important bad trading habits.
Un prepared for the market : Never start a trading day without having a plan or doing analysis on the stocks/index you are trading.
Stop loss : Always place stop order once you entered a trade.
Over thinking : When your strategy gives entry, take entry. Dont hesitate. Your stop order will save you if anything went wrong.
Uncertainty : Accept the fact that market don’t give any strategy 100 % success. Dont look for the wholly grail methods which will give you certainty. It don’t exist.
Patience : Market gives reward to the people who wait for their trade set up to form and who trade with patience.
Ego : Share market is an entirely different domain where you face the strongest opponent “You”. Make yourself to understand your inner demons, so that you wont have too much ego which can affect your trading unknowingly.
Addiction : Once in a while check whether you are passionate about trading or addicted to it.
Fear of missing out : Market always gives opportunities to all. The opportunities which you missed in life will be trying to come out during market hours to take trade when there is no trade set up.
Journaling : Keep track of your trades and improvement . The things which can not be measured can not be analysed.
Less capital : Dont try to get big profits from small capital as it will make you to take huge risks.
Note : Fear & greed is not in the top ten list as they are out dated :)
Our brain makes us to repeat same mistakes. You should be conscious about your actions to avoid it.
Good luck !
BACKTESTED PIVOT INTRADAY STARTEGY [INDIA MARKET TIMING]A Back-tested Profitable Strategy for Free!!
A PIVOT INTRADAY STRATEGY for 5 minute Time-Frame , that also explains the time condition for Indian Markets
The Timing can be changed to fit other markets, scroll down to "TIME CONDITION" to know more.
The commission is also included in the strategy .
The basic idea is when ,
1) Price crosses above ema1 ,indicated by pivot high line in green color .
2) Price crosses below ema1 ,indicated by pivot low line in red color .
3) Candle high crosses above pivot high , is the Long condition .
4) Candle low crosses below pivot low , is the Short condition .
5) Maximum Risk per trade for the intraday trade can be changed .
6) Default_qty_size is set to 60 contracts , which can be changed under settings → properties → order size .
7) ATR is used for trailing after entry, as mentioned in the inputs below.
// ═════════════════════════//
// ————————> INPUTS <————————— //
// ═════════════════════════//
Leftbars ——————————> Length of pivot highs and lows
Rightbars —————————> Length of pivot highs and lows
Price Cross Ema —————> Added condition
ATR LONG —————————> ATR stoploss trail for Long positions
ATR SHORT ————————> ATR stoploss trail for Short positions
RISK ————————————> Maximum Risk per trade for the day
The strategy was back-tested on RELIANCE ,the input values and the results are mentioned under "BACKTEST RESULTS" below .
// ═════════════════════════ //
// ————————> PROPERTIES<——————— //
// ═════════════════════════ //
Default_qty_size ————> 60 contracts , which can be changed under
Settings
↓
Properties
↓
Order size
// ═══════════════════════════════//
// ————————> TIME CONDITION <————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════//
The time can be changed in the script , Add it → click on ' { } ' → Pine editor→ making it a copy [right top corner} → Edit the line 25 .
The Indian Markets open at 9:15am and closes at 3:30pm .
The 'time_cond' specifies the time at which Entries should happen .
"Close All" function closes all the trades at 3pm , at the open of the next candle.
To change the time to close all trades , Go to Pine Editor → Edit the line 103 .
All open trades get closed at 3pm , because some brokers don't allow you to place fresh intraday orders after 3pm .
NSE:RELIANCE
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
// ————————> BACKTEST RESULTS ( 128 CLOSED TRADES )<————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
INPUTS can be changed for better back-test results.
The strategy applied to NSE:RELIANCE ( 5 min Time-Frame and contract size 60) gives us 61% profitability , as shown below
It was tested for a period a 6 months with a Profit Factor of 1.45 , Net Profit of 21,500Rs .
Sharpe Ratio : 0.311
Sortino Ratio : 0.727
The graph has a Linear Curve with consistent profits.
The INPUTS are as follows,
1) Leftbars ————————> 3
2) Rightbars ——————— > 5
3) Price Cross Ema ———> 150
4) ATR LONG ——————> 2.7
5) ATR SHORT —————> 2.9
6) RISK —————————> 2500
7) Default qty size ——> 60
NSE:RELIANCE
Save it to favorites.
Apply it to your charts Now !!
FOLLOW US FOR MORE !
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'SWING' your losses into profits with 'SWING' trading strategiesIn prior posts, we have covered some great teachings about the market and,
in this post, we will elaborately cover the swing trading strategies. Let's start !!
->Definition of swing trading -: Swing trading is generally referred to as a trade carried out for a short time. Swing traders do not wait
till the price action opposes their direction, they are known for their prior moves.
They are good at identifying the shifts in market trends with the help of various techniques which are explained throughout this idea.
Swing trading strategies include the use of Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, Channel Trading, Moving Average, MACD crossover, and better
understanding of chart patterns like Head & Shoulder, Flag, and Triangle Patterns.
We will discuss chart patterns, later on, now let's focus on the indicator strategies.
- >Swing trading strategies -:
->Fibonacci Retracement: The stock price tends to retrace, and swing traders use this retracement as an opportunity to enter a trend.
The retracement levels could be identified using Fibonacci Retracement, all you need is to identify the prior trend and if the price retraces to the 0.618 level and
again resumes the trend jump on it and ride the position till it reaches 0.236 level.
->Bollinger Bands : Most probably, the stock price tries to move in the Bollinger band, which is used by swing traders to initiate and terminate their position.
Firstly you need to identify the major trend, let's suppose it's bearish than when the price reaches the upper bound and there is a formation of a bearish candle
you could initiate a short position also when a bearish candle is formed at the median, there also you can initiate a short position.
->Channel Trading: Sometimes, stock price trades in a channel now this channel is used by swing traders i.e. when the trend is bullish they try to take long
position at the lower range of channel and book partial profits on median and wait for the price to reach the upper end.
->Moving Average: Here traders identify the major trend and take position according to it, with help of crossovers they generally prefer 10DEMA crosses 20DEMA.
->MACD : This is a simple strategy where the trades are initiated when there is MACD crossover but the cross should correlate with the trend.
My Observation-: These strategies could be more accurate if used to trade with the trend, i.e. if the stock is in an uptrend only take positions for a positive signal and just avoid negative signals.
Another basic strategy is to take a position when a script moves above the swing high or below the swing low, here the only thing to ponder is to manage your risk. Don't take over positions understand your risk appetite then take positions.
Intraday Consolidation Breakout ExplainedOK let's get started ,
A Day Trading (Intraday) Consolidation Breakout Indication Strategy that explains time condition for Indian Markets .
The commission is also included in the strategy .
The basic idea is ,
1) Price crosses above upper band , indicated by a color change (green) is the Long condition
2) Price crosses below lower band , indicated by a color change (red) is the Short condition
3) ATR is used for trailing after entry
// ═══════════════════════════════//
// ————————> TIME CONDITION <————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════//
The Indian Markets open at 9:15am and closes at 3:30pm.
The time_condition specifies the time at which Entries should happen .
"Close All" function closes all the trades at 2:57pm.
All open trades get closed at 2:57pm , because some brokers dont allow you to place fresh intraday orders after 3pm .
NSE:NIFTY1!
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
// ————————> BACKTEST RESULTS ( 114 CLOSED TRADES )<————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
LENGTH , MULT (factor) and ATR can be changed for better backtest results .
The strategy applied to NIFTY ( 3 min Time-Frame and contract size 5) gives us 60% profitability , as shown below
It was tested for a period a 8 months with a Profit Factor of 2.2 , avg Trade of 6000Rs profit
Sharpe Ratio : 0.67
The graph has a Linear Curve with consistent profits.
NSE:NIFTY1!
// ═════════════════════════//
// ————————> INPUTS <————————— //
// ═════════════════════════//
For the Back-Tested results :
LENGTH ————————> 30
MULT_STDEV ——————> 3
ATR TRAIL ————————> 2
Save it favorites.
Apply it to your charts Now !!
Thank me later ;)
The Top 3 Elements found in all good trading plansHey everyone! 👋
This month, we have been theming our posts around the concept of building a solid trading plan. Our first post asked you to think about the kinds of factors that can predict long-term success. Our second post looked at why trading plans are so important. Both of these posts you can find linked at the end 👇
Having talked about the *what* and the *why*, it’s time to talk about the *how*.
Today we will be taking a look at the top 3 elements found in all good trading plans!
1️⃣ Element 1: Every good trading plan knows why it wins.
In trading, there are two variables that matter: Bat Rate, and Win / Loss.
► Bat Rate describes what percentage of the time a trade ends up as a win. A trader with a 90% bat rate wins 9 out of every 10 trades.
► Win / Loss describes how big the average win is, relative to the average loss. A trader with a 0.5 Win / Loss takes losses twice the size of his wins.
If you multiply these numbers together, you will get an “Expected Value”.
For example, a trader with a Bat Rate of 50% (wins half of the time) and a Win / Loss of 1 (Losses the same size as wins) is a perfectly “Breakeven” trader.
In order to make money in the long term, all you need to do is make the multiplication of these values be a positive value. The breakeven trader above only needs to win 51% of trades to begin making money, if his W/L remains constant.
☝🏽To get these numbers into positive “expected value” territory, every good trading plan needs to devise a way to systematically find trading opportunities that it thinks have an edge. The inputs of this system are completely up to the trader, but they are typically rooted in repeating price patterns, fundamental observations, macro trends, or other patterns and cycles. Backtesting can be useful here for getting a general idea of whether or not an idea for a trading strategy has borne out to be true over time.
In short, no matter what it looks like, good trading plans identify their edge before risking capital. Why start a business without a business plan?
2️⃣ Element 2: Every good trading plan takes into account the emotional character of the trader.
This is the hardest element to quantify, but also arguably one of the most important pieces of a good written trading plan - the ability to work around a trader’s individual strengths and weaknesses. This is less important for banks and hedge funds, as decisions are typically made with oversight, but for retail traders, there is no-one around to temper your personal flaws.
You can do whatever you want! - but it’s a double edged sword of responsibility that your trading plan needs to prepare you for.
In short, you can best get an idea of where you are emotionally weakest by looking at your trading history. Nobody can do this for you, so it requires quite a bit of self-awareness. However, the rewards of removing emotional risk from a trading plan make it worth the effort.
😱 All trading is based on fear. You need to understand which fear is stronger - the fear of missing out, or the fear of losing capital. Figure out which is stronger, and plan accordingly.
Just because you understand a certain strategy and other people make money trading it, doesn’t mean that you will be able to. Executing with 100% consistency at 30% efficiency is more important than finding a strategy with 100% efficiency that you can only trade with 10% consistency. Make life easy on yourself!
3️⃣ Element 3: Every good trading plan outlines risk.
Whether you have one thousand dollars or one billion dollars, ignoring risk is a sure way to experience massively increased monetary and emotional volatility , which can have a huge negative impact on long term profitability. Here are a few simple-to-implement mechanisms that Banks, Hedge Funds, and Prop Firms use to reduce risk significantly - good trading plans don’t skip these.
💵 Total Account Stop
Exactly what it sounds like: once you lose a certain percentage of your capital, you stop trading, liquidate your positions, and assess what went wrong. Only once you’re satisfied that you have fixed the issue are you allowed to re-enter the market. In the industry, this number is commonly 10%.
💵 Per Theme Risk
This ensures that you aren’t too concentrated on a single “bet”, even if the bet is spread across multiple instruments. For example, if you own multiple companies in the same sector, their performance will likely be correlated to some degree even if they have different products or services. Adding a hard cap to this type of risk can massively reduce risky or over concentrated allocations.
💵 Per Position Risk
Many successful Professional Traders and Hedge Funds use the concept of “Free Capital” in order to manage risk. “Free Capital” is the amount of money in hard dollars that makes up the buffer between an account’s current equity, and the total account stop number.
For example, If a currency trader at a bank has a 10% total account stop out, and runs a $10,000,000 currency book, then he can really only “lose” $1,000,000 before his bosses pull him aside to have a talk. His “Free Capital” is $1,000,000. He will then size his positions to where he only risks 1-5% of his Free Capital per trade. This way, he has room to be wrong a minimum of 20 times in a row before any negative consequences come his way. Implementing a “free capital” risk limit per position ensures that you have a TON of room for error.
Yes, this typically prevents you from doubling your account overnight, but again, that isn’t the goal. Long term profitability is.
Some people call this per position risk “one R” (one risk unit).
☝🏽Whatever it looks like, including a plan for managing your risk is essential for *actually* managing your risk. If these plans aren’t written out and acted upon, they’re also a lot easier to ignore.
🙏🏽 Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful!
- TradingView Team ❤️❤️
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You Might Have Heard A Lot About This Hey Everyone,
Today we are again with a lot of information and a bunch of topics, so consider following us for regular ideas and market updates
Let's go Strictly into the idea
So What is a Fib Retracement ?
Now You might think it is just making lines and deciding on support or resistance but it's way too far, as shown in the thumbnail " The Major Levels " it means the levels that can be a support or resistance and can be found easily as shown.
So Now we have learned What is Fibonacci Retracement, Now Let's Know How to use It ?
To use fib retracememts we need to first find a low and a high level and then set 1.000 and 0 and then just seek at The Major Levels to Trade.
This was just an overview if you want a more detailed idea in which we will discuss Fibonacci Extensions , Fibonacci Number and Lines tell me in the comments and i will do for sure
Thanks
Bye - Bye