CRYPTO: How it works and how it is explained for beginners.CRYPTO: How it works and how it is explained for beginners.
Here is a detailed explanation of the key concepts related to cryptocurrencies:
Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrencies are decentralized digital currencies that use cryptography to secure transactions. Unlike traditional currencies, they are not issued by a central authority such as a bank.
The main characteristics of cryptocurrencies are:
-They exist only in electronic form
-Transactions are made directly between users (peer-to-peer)
-They use blockchain technology to record transactions
-Their value fluctuates according to supply and demand
Blockchain
Blockchain is the underlying technology that allows cryptocurrencies to work.
Its main features are:
-It is a distributed and decentralized ledger that records all transactions
-Each transaction forms a "block" that is added to the existing chain
-The data is encrypted and impossible to modify once recorded
-It works without a central authority thanks to a network of computers
The halving
The halving is a scheduled event that concerns certain cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Its main characteristics are:
- It halves the reward given to miners for creating new blocks
- It usually occurs approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks for Bitcoin)
- Its purpose is to control inflation by gradually reducing the issuance of new units
- It can have an impact on the price of the cryptocurrency by reducing the supply
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The different types of coins
There are several categories of cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin: The first and best known cryptocurrency
Altcoins: All cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (e.g. Ethereum, Litecoin)
Tokens: Tokens created on existing blockchains, often linked to specific projects
Stablecoins: Cryptocurrencies whose value is indexed to a fiat currency or a stable asset
Memecoins: a cryptocurrency that comes from an Internet meme or that has a humorous, ironic characteristic, a joke as its origin.
Each type of coin has its own characteristics and uses, but all rely on blockchain technology to operate in a decentralized manner. 10 minutes ago
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Here is a list of the top altcoins, memecoins, and stablecoins to know in 2024:
Major Altcoins:
-Ethereum (ETH)
-Cardano (ADA)
-Solana (SOL)
-Polkadot (DOT)
-Ripple (XRP)
-Litecoin (LTC)
-Chainlink (LINK)
-Polygon (MATIC)
-Avalanche (AVAX)
-Tron (TRX)
Popular Memecoins:
-Dogecoin (DOGE)
-Shiba Inu (SHIB)
-Pepe (PEPE)
-Bonk (BONK)
-Book of Meme (BOME)
Top Stablecoins:
-Tether (USDT)
-USD Coin (USDC)
-Frax (FRAX)
-Dai (DAI)
-TrueUSD (TUSD)
-First Digital USD (FDUSD)
-Decentralized USD (USDD)
Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, often offering specific features or use cases.
Memecoins are cryptocurrencies that were initially created as jokes but have sometimes gained popularity.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged to a fiat currency like the US dollar.
Each category has its own characteristics:
-Major altcoins often aim to solve specific problems or provide platforms for the development of decentralized applications.
-Memecoins are generally driven by their community and can experience high volatility.
-Stablecoins seek to offer the stability of traditional currencies while retaining the benefits of cryptocurrencies.
It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is very dynamic and the popularity and value of these tokens can fluctuate rapidly
Community ideas
Part 1: Option Selling: A Simple Way to Earn Consistent PremiumsWe’ll explore the top 7 option-selling strategies on the NSE (National Stock Exchange) that could help traders target up to 10% monthly returns per Month on their capital. Option selling is an advanced strategy that can generate consistent income, but it’s important to balance high rewards with the right risk management. Whether you are new to options or an experienced trader, this guide will provide an overview of each strategy, rated based on its risk, reward, and suitability for achieving your financial goals.
Option Selling on NSE: A Simple Way to Earn Consistent Premiums
Introduction
Option selling is a great way to make steady income on the NSE. Instead of waiting for big market moves, you can sell options and collect premium upfront. It’s a strategy that benefits from time decay, meaning the longer the option sits without action, the more money you can make. Let’s break down why it works and why traders love it on the NSE.
What is Option Selling?
When you sell an option, you’re giving someone the right to buy or sell an asset at a specific price. In return, you get paid a premium upfront. As long as the market stays within a certain range, you keep that money.
Selling a Call: You profit if the price stays below a certain level.
Selling a Put: You profit if the price stays above a certain level.
It’s simple – the less the market moves, the more you earn.
Why Traders Choose Option Selling
1. Immediate Income
You get paid right away when you sell an option. No waiting for market moves, just steady income.
2. Time is Your Friend
As time passes, options lose value due to time decay. This works in your favor as a seller, since the option becomes less likely to be exercised.
3. High Win Rate
You don’t need big price moves. As long as the market stays within a range, you win.
4. Control Risk with Spreads
You can limit your risk by using spreads, where you buy another option to protect yourself if the market moves too much.
Why the NSE is Ideal for Option Selling:
High Liquidity: Options like Nifty and Bank Nifty have a lot of buyers and sellers, so trades are easy to make.Low Capital Requirement: You need less money to sell options on the NSE compared to other strategies.Risk Control: With the wide variety of options, you can set up trades that limit your risk.
Banknifty , Crude oil and Copper Divergence Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and a technical indicator move in opposite directions. It's a sign that the price of an asset may be reversing, and it can help traders recognize and react to price changes.
Here are some things to know about divergence:
#Types of divergence
There are two types of divergence: negative and positive. Negative divergence happens when the price of a security is rising, but an indicator is falling. Positive divergence happens when the price of a security is falling, but an indicator is rising.
#When to use divergence
Divergence can help traders make decisions like tightening stop-loss or taking a profit.
#How to confirm reversals
Divergence can occur over a long period of time, so traders can use other tools like trendlines and support and resistance levels to confirm reversals.
#When to use convergence
Convergence is when the price of an asset, indicator, or index moves in the same direction as a related asset, indicator, or index
Life of a Trader / Option's // StocksEmotional reactions
Overcoming your emotions is another hurdle you may encounter as a new trader. You may make impulsive decisions out of greed, fear, anger, frustration, or excessive optimism. This can lead to losses, which in turn can reduce your confidence.
To ensure you don't fall into the trap of your emotions, chalk out a detailed and rule-based strategy and try to follow it strictly. Review your trades regularly to learn from your mistakes and build stable trading behaviour. You can keep a trading journal and implement stop-loss orders to reduce emotional influence on your trading decisions.
Overtrading
Another common challenge that can come your way is the temptation to overtrade. You may feel tempted to overtrade to earn higher earnings or overcome losses quickly. However, more trades don’t necessarily translate into more money. Overtrading can increase your risk exposure and increase transaction costs.
To overcome the temptation to overtrading, you can set predefined limits on daily or weekly trades and take a break when you reach the limit. You must also ensure that you engage in trades that align with your strategy and do not prioritise quantity over quality.
Impatience
As a new trader, you may lack the patience to stick to your trading strategy, especially during market fluctuations. You may opt for premature exits if gains don't materialise as quickly as expected. However, success in trading does not come overnight. You must wait for the right opportunities and patiently endure losses and phases of stagnation.
A solution to this problem is to have a solid trading strategy with clear entry and exit criteria. Have faith in your plan and give it the time to work. Avoid changing your strategy too often. Once you have a solid strategy, be patient, wait for the right time and grab your opportunity.
Poor risk management
The stock market is highly volatile and unpredictable. One day, a stock can rise by 20% and plummet suddenly the following day. Such frequent changes in the price of an asset can overwhelm you. It also makes it challenging to plan your strategy and manage risks. You may feel tempted to chase high returns and take excessive risks. However, this can wipe out your capital in no time. This is why risk management is important in trading.
Make sure your trades align not only with your strategy but also your risk profile. Before placing a trade, analyse your risk-per-trade and reward-to-risk ratio. Diversify investments to spread risks across different sectors and assets to protect your capital. Include clear entry and exit points and an emergency way in your strategy. Using stop-loss orders can also help tackle risks and minimise losses.
Conclusion
The stock market is both alluring and daunting. Without proper knowledge and skills, you may incur losses and even quit prematurely if things don't go as expected. However, understanding the challenges beginners often face and learning to overcome them can illuminate your path to success.
Understanding Intrinsic Value and Its Impact on Options Trading
What is Intrinsic Value?
Intrinsic value is a key concept in options trading that reflects the real, inherent worth of an option. It is the difference between the underlying asset's current price and the option's strike price. For options, intrinsic value can be classified as follows:
Call Options: Intrinsic value = Current Price of Underlying Asset - Strike Price. A call option has intrinsic value when the underlying asset's price is above the strike price.
Put Options: Intrinsic value = Strike Price - Current Price of Underlying Asset. A put option has intrinsic value when the underlying asset's price is below the strike price.
Effects on Option Buying and Selling
Intrinsic Value and Option Premium:
The intrinsic value contributes to the option’s premium (price). An option with intrinsic value will typically trade at a higher premium than an out-of-the-money option (which has no intrinsic value).
When buying options, higher intrinsic value indicates that the option is more likely to be profitable.
Decision Making:
Buyers: When considering purchasing options, traders often look for options with significant intrinsic value, especially if they believe the underlying asset will continue moving in a favorable direction.
Sellers (Writers): Option sellers may prefer to sell options with little or no intrinsic value, aiming to profit from time decay (the reduction in the option's premium as it approaches expiration).
Risk Assessment:
Options with high intrinsic value are typically less risky for buyers because they already have built-in profit potential. However, they also come at a higher cost.
Sellers of high intrinsic value options face a greater risk if the underlying asset continues to move in their unfavorable direction.
Market Sentiment:
Intrinsic value can also reflect market sentiment. A significant intrinsic value in a call option may suggest bullish sentiment, while high intrinsic value in a put option may indicate bearish sentiment.
Traders can gauge market psychology and make informed trading decisions based on how intrinsic values shift.
Expiration Considerations:
As options near expiration, intrinsic value becomes increasingly important. An option that is in-the-money (ITM) will have intrinsic value, while an out-of-the-money (OTM) option will not. Understanding this can help traders decide whether to exercise, sell, or let an option expire worthless.
Conclusion:-
Intrinsic value is a fundamental component of options trading that directly influences buying and selling strategies. By understanding how intrinsic value works and its implications on option premiums, traders can make more informed decisions. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a beginner, grasping this concept will enhance your ability to navigate the options market effectively.
07 Insightful approaches to learning cup & handle pattern ⭕ Price Action chart pattern similarity !!!⭕
Ranges candles shows the phase of accumulation or distribution It helps trader to track bearishness and bullishness of the chart, in this phase accumulation can be seen because of bull Bo.
There is so many ways to approach chart patterns, everyone has different approaches and different insights.
Some Examples of Cup & Handle pattern we have seen:-
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
POST Your Findings in comment section any other stocks with some pattern you observed we can discuss as a community there !!! Happy To Learn here in TRADINGVIEW with charts
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WAAREERTL VCP - The Concept and its formation This is educational article to show how VCP , Volatility Contraction pattern development and its breakout .
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) is a technical chart pattern often used in share trading to identify stocks that are preparing for a breakout.
Here i used the stock WAAREE renewable Technologies as an example- This is not a buy sell recommendation - only for study purpose .
This stock corrected for almost 50 % from All-time high .
Phase reversal started from 07 August 2024.
I split the screen into two sections to explain the concept .
Left side screen
1. VCP-1 20% , VCP-2 11 % and VCP -3 6% - a clear Contraction in Volatility.
Right side screen
2. Steep reduction in volume - see yellow triangle
3. Lower High formation - see violet trendline
4. Volume profile 2.33 M /2.06M (buy/sell)from 7Aug to 12 Sep
5. See RSI bottom level lower high formation
And the result is 25% profit within 5 trading days
This is a classical example for VCP breakout .
I hope this concept will help us in identifying similar breakouts in other stocks -
Note : Both sections , i used the same candles from 7Aug to 12 Sep . Left side screen made little elongated to visualize VCP formation more clearly
disclaimer :This is not a buy sell recommendation - only for study purpose .
Unlocking Success: Your Guide to Profitable Trading### Market Analysis Report
#### Market Structure Overview
The current market structure shows a **bullish trend** characterized by higher highs and higher lows over the past few weeks. Price action has been supported by positive economic indicators, and we see robust buying interest at key support levels. However, it's essential to remain vigilant for potential turning points, as the market can shift rapidly.
#### Support and Resistance Levels
- **Support Levels**: Key support is identified around , where the price has previously bounced back. This indicates a strong buying interest at these levels.
- **Resistance Levels**: The market faces resistance around . A breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a failure to break through could lead to a pullback.
#### Turning Points
Turning points are critical in identifying potential reversals. Watch for:
- **Candlestick Patterns**: Look for reversal patterns (e.g., doji, engulfing) near support or resistance levels.
- **Volume Confirmation**: A significant increase in volume at these levels can signal strong buying or selling pressure.
#### Sitting on Hands
Sometimes, not trading is the best strategy. On days without clear setups:
- **Assess Market Conditions**: If there are no strong signals, it’s prudent to refrain from trading.
- **Avoid Emotional Decisions**: Staying disciplined helps prevent impulsive trades that can lead to losses.
#### Risk Management
Effective risk management is crucial:
- **Position Sizing**: Limit exposure to 1-2% of your trading capital per trade to mitigate risk.
- **Stop-Loss Orders**: Implement stop-loss orders just below support levels to protect against adverse movements.
#### Money Management
A solid money management strategy includes:
- **Diversification**: Spread risk across different assets to reduce exposure to any single position.
- **Regular Review**: Continuously review and adjust your strategy based on market performance and changes in risk tolerance.
### Conclusion
The current market exhibits a bullish structure, with identifiable support and resistance levels. While opportunities may arise, remember that sitting on your hands can be a wise choice on days lacking clear setups. Focus on risk and money management to protect your capital, ensuring you’re prepared for any market conditions. Stay disciplined, and trade smart!
Happy Trading Follow the process profits will take care of you.
Histogram(MACD) Divergence Trading Let us discuss the MACD indicator strategy and histogram. I know being a chartist you are familiar with this tool.
Hence I hope this will be a revision for you. Assuming you already know this topic, you should know that MACD Histogram is derived from MACD.
To me, it is the effect of MACD (cause), without which MACD Histogram would not have been born. I hope you can relate it to the previous paragraph. If not, no problem. Carry on reading.
But before proceeding further I would request you to recapitulate MACD (moving average convergence divergence). Thanks for converging your thoughts with that of mine. I am glad. It will help me to explain this article without taking the additional burden.
MACD Histogram Peak-Trough Divergence
By now you must have understood how the histogram dances to the tunes of prices. If one looks at it closely then one can easily identify the divergences.
You will notice that a peak and trough divergence is formed with two peaks or two troughs in the MACD Histogram.
Usually, it can be segregated into two parts, i.e. bullish peak and trough divergence and bearish peak and trough divergence.
Alright, I will explain you in short.
Bullish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a lower low and on the contrary, MACD-Histogram makes a higher low. One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined troughs define the health of a bullish peak-trough divergence.
bullish peak trough divergence
Bearish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a higher high and on the contrary MACD Histogram makes a lower high.
One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined peaks define the health of a bearish peak-trough divergence.
"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash.
"Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash.
Here are the main things to remember about this indicator:
Definition and origin
Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s.
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster.
How it works
- Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market:
- A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks).
- The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows.
- The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average).
-The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative.
Interpretation
-When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline.
-The signal remains active for 30 trading days.
Reliability
-The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987.
-However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals.
Usage
-Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals.
Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring.
It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools.
In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
Finding Trade Setup using MTF with example of NIFTY 19-09-2024Here we will lean how to find trade setups, with help of Market structure and MTF.
Follow your direction, be patient and don't fall far retracements. Pick any 3TF and stick to that.
Let's see:
NIFTY 19-09-2024
TIME FRAMES IN PLAY : D1 (Direction) /H2 (Control) / M30 (Entry)
1) We see Daily Break out. Confirm with Line chart closing price and then switch to candle stick.
TradingView didn't allow me to add as I am a free member but you find the markings in the chart.
How do we know it is Daily level, we drop time frame H2 (for Stocks).we see multiple H2 structures nested which gives us an idea that it is a Daily level. You can do same to identify you HTF level.
TradingView didn't allow me to add as I am a free member but you find the markings in the
chart.
2) Wee need to wait for Retracement/ Pull back. A valid pullback is from same TF small breakout of 1TF lower proper structure break. We drop to H2. And what do we see
TradingView didn't allow me to add as I am a free member but you find the markings in the chart.
We see H2 Direction or Structure is still in tact.
Break and close below in H2 external, will tell us retracement to Daily has started.
3) So what can we do? We follow H2 as our direction. M30 as Control and M5 as Entry (same 3 TF) (H2/M30/M5). Until H2 Breaks.
Take a look at M30.
TradingView didn't allow me to add as I am a free member but you find the markings in the chart.
4) What is the use of Control time frame. It helps us giving confidence that price will continue to it’s direction now.
Where price is at HTF key level (see my Market structure link to know key level. Where the market structure shift happened.), we switch 1 TF low and wait for structure break and then we look for entry . Some time later I will explain you the entries. Right now just focus on How it happens in MTF Market is Fractal, this is the true meaning.
5) Now price is a M30 Key level , because H2 is our direction as of now. Let drop to M5 to see.
TradingView didn't allow me to add as I am a free member but you find the markings in the chart.
M5 retraced back to after making structure and M30. Here we found entry setup.
Now SL is your invalidation point. Where you entry timeframe breaks structure. Measure you Entry to SL point having some buffer and plan you position sizing.
You will get many entries in one structure. Middle TF.
If doing intraday need to be very strict with SL. For swing once you master this you can ride the trend.
TP (take profit). Need to know that we have taken tade on middle TF (M30 in this case) so first we target the HTF high (H2 in this case), wait for it to break by H2 TF. If not that is our TP. Close.
How do we know if it breaks or not. Same thing we follow middle TF (M30) , if it breaks low of M30 at H2 High, then it is indicating, it can not go further.
Hope you will make this a practice. We will win to gather.
Happy trading.!!
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.
Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!!
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading:
- The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal.
- According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with approximately 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit.
- More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken.
- A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases.
- However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%.
-The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the break of the neckline, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary.
-It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses.
__________________________________________________________________
Head and Shoulders:
Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading:
-The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways:
- Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading.
- In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern.
- It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal.
- The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary.
- Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly.
In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses.
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NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
real Market structure 1-0-1MARKET STRUCTURE 1-0-1
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1. I dentify recent Brekout (BO)
2. pick High or low
3. Anything in between ignore
4. wait for new (BO),
5. Next, if high breaks, the lowest point is new low
6. If low breaks the highest point befor BO is the new high
These highest and lowest point are external.
7. How do we know if pull back started? if opposite break in the same TF or 1 TF below happens
we follow same for internal structure and for market flow internals are alway priority to trade.
but externals gives direction.
for retracement trade we follow internal stucture
and for trade in direction we follow external structure
These areas are your real Support and Resistance Key levels to look for action or take trade. wait for price to come here and you will see a lot difference in trade.
Then you can follow MTF (3 time frame)
1. HTF for direction.
2. 2TF for control of direction
3. LTF for entry confirmation
marking EG zonesI have just published an indicator for marking trend and inside candle.
this chart will help in understanding marking EG zones.
- EG system
- Follow any 3 TF set (High (Direction), Middle (Confirm Direction), Low (Entry))
Forex
MN1/W1/D1
W1/D1/H4
D1/H4/H1
H4/H1/M15
H1/M15/M5
M15/M5/M5
Stock
MN1/W1/D1
W1/D1/H2
D1/H2/M30
M30/M5/M1
- Need to see same type EG in all Time Frame to place a trade. (EG BUY,EG BUY,EG BUY) For buy entry same is for sell Entry
- Follow only new EG, created recently, CMP (current market price)
-Price moves from EG to EG, zone to zone.
Advanced Divergence Trading"Welcome to SkyTradingZone "
Hello Everyone 👋
Video Information -
Hello , Everyone lets start the Journey of Advanced Divergence Trading
In this video, we are going to look at divergence.
What is divergence?
Divergence is basically
when the market is creating
higher highs and higher lows, and
the RSI is creating the opposite.
(Divergence can happen in
both downtrends and uptrends.)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Q What divergence does, it's basically
telling you that the trend is weakening.
This is in a downtrend, and the RSI,
the divergence, is basically telling you
that this downtrend is weakening and
there could be a possible reversal soon.
So normally when divergence
is happening, you normally see
The market creates basically a curve.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Structure is always key
It doesn't matter the strategy
you use, structure is always key.
So what you want to see is that
breaker structure to say that the trend
is changing because structure changed.
Note- Normal Tip From our side try to learn Liquidity and order block
Understanding the Round Bottom PatternThe Round Bottom Pattern, also known as a saucer bottom, is a bullish reversal pattern that typically occurs after a prolonged downtrend. It signals a gradual shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Let's break it down:
Key Features of the Round Bottom Pattern:
Shape & Duration:
The pattern resembles a "U" shape, indicating a smooth transition from a bearish phase to a bullish phase.
It generally forms over an extended period, which can range from weeks to months, allowing the price to consolidate and reverse gradually
Volume:
In the early stages, volume is usually low as sellers dominate the market.
As the price reaches the bottom and begins to rise, trading volume increases, confirming the reversal and the entry of buyers.
Resistance Breakout:
A critical point in the pattern is the breakout above the resistance neckline, marking the end of the pattern.
After this breakout, the stock is expected to continue its upward momentum, leading to a price rally.
Confirmation:
The breakout should be confirmed by an increase in volume, validating that the buyers are in control.
A strong breakout typically indicates the start of a new uptrend.
How to Trade the Round Bottom Pattern:
Entry Point:
Once the price breaks above the resistance neckline, traders can consider entering long positions.
Stop Loss:
A stop loss can be placed just below the neckline or near the lowest point of the bottom curve to minimize risk.
Price Target:
The target price can be projected by measuring the depth of the pattern (from the neckline to the lowest point) and adding that to the breakout level.
Conclusion:
The Round Bottom Pattern is a powerful tool for traders looking to capitalize on market reversals. By understanding its structure and key indicators such as volume and breakout, traders can identify high-probability setups for successful trades.
This pattern is currently observed in Kalyan Jewellers NSE:KALYANKJIL , as shown in the chart, where a breakout above the neckline suggests bullish potential ahead.
For further analysis and updates, stay connected!
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Mastering Investment Decisions: Mahindra ltdHello,
To better understand how we can use Tradingview to make our investment decisions, today we shall be using an example of Mahidra & Mahindra. I shall follow the below steps and finally make an investment recommendation.
Understanding the Business
Before investing in any company, it’s essential to understand its business model, revenue streams, and market position. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (M&M) is one of India’s most diversified conglomerates, operating across several sectors. Its core business revolves around two major areas:
Automotive: M&M is a leading manufacturer of SUVs, commercial vehicles, and electric vehicles. Its stronghold in the automotive industry, especially in the SUV segment, has positioned it as a dominant player in the market.
Farm Equipment: The company is a global leader in tractor manufacturing, making significant contributions to the agriculture sector both in India and abroad.
Additionally, Mahindra has interests in other sectors such as:
IT Services through Tech Mahindra, which provides technology solutions globally.
Financial Services via Mahindra Finance, offering loans and leasing services.
Real Estate development through its housing and infrastructure divisions.
This diversification not only stabilizes M&M’s revenue base but also allows it to remain resilient in volatile markets.
Revenue and Expenses
When analyzing the company’s financials, it’s clear that M&M has maintained steady growth in revenue. This can be clearly seen on the charts right top. The Total revenue has increased since 2010.
The Net income is also very key to watch as well as the diluted EPS. Below is a chart showing how all this metrics have perfored over the years.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis provides valuable insights into stock price movements by studying historical data. Over the past 500 days, Mahindra & Mahindra’s stock has shown a consistent upward trend, supported by investor confidence and solid company fundamentals.
Currently, the stock appears to be consolidating around its support level, and forming a flag pattern which is a continuation patten. Below the flag pattern is clearly identified and indicated.
Target setting
Once you have identified the pattern forming, next is to set the targets. I expect the target of this stock to be at IRN 3638 areas with a stop loss being around IRN 2426.80.
Recommendation
Based on the technical analysis and the company’s strong business fundamentals, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. presents a compelling investment opportunity at current areas.
Buy: IRN 2656
Target 1: IRN 3021
Target 2: IRN 3638.75
Good luck!
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in tradingThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements.
Highlights
📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis.
📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points.
🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern.
📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique.
💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%.
🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments.
🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding.
Key Insights
📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective.
📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success.
🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis.
📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis.
💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness.
🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements.
🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills.
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The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach:
How it works
The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions.
These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals.
The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market.
Advantages
Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry.
Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement.
Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open.
Complementary Tools
The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness:
Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions.
Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points.
Important Considerations
This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions.
It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range.
Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
Breakout Book The Needed Things fot itHello friends, today we will talk about those important things which can be essential for a good breakout, so today I am sharing some information on this topic with all of you, I hope you all will like reading it and it will also help all of you breakout traders.
The Key Components of a Successful Breakout on a Chart-::
A Breakout occurs when the price of a stock or other asset moves above a resistance level or below a support level with increased volume, signaling potential for a new trend. Identifying a successful breakout can be a lucrative trading opportunity, but it requires analyzing key components to ensure the breakout is genuine and sustainable. Let’s explore the critical components of a successful breakout on a chart.
1- Identifying Key Levels: Resistance and Support
Breakouts are all about surpassing significant price levels.
✅Resistance-: A price level where the asset struggles to move above, due to selling pressure.
✅Support-: A price level where the asset tends to find buying interest, preventing it from moving lower.
A breakout occurs when the price breaks through these key levels, often signaling a change in market sentiment.
2- Volume Surge
One of the most important components to verify the strength of a breakout is volume. If a breakout occurs on low volume, it could be a false breakout or short-lived. Increased volume shows the conviction of traders behind the move, confirming it is likely to sustain.
✅High Volume-:Confirms market interest in the new price movement.
✅Low Volume-: Raises suspicion that the breakout might be weak or temporary.
3- Pre-Breakout Trend
The trend preceding a breakout provides valuable context
✅Uptrend before a resistance breakout-: If the asset has been in an uptrend and breaks resistance, it suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.
✅Downtrend before a support breakout-: A bearish breakout may confirm a continuation of the downtrend if the price breaks a key support level.
A sideways or consolidating market can also lead to a breakout, signaling the beginning of a new trend, which can be particularly strong.
4- Retesting the Breakout Level (Throwback/Pullback)
✅A breakout doesn’t always mean immediate momentum. Often, after breaking out, the price will return to test the old resistance or support level. This is called a throwback (when testing resistance) or pullback (when testing support).
If the price holds above the previous resistance (or below the previous support), it confirms the breakout's strength.
Failure to hold the breakout level may indicate a false breakout.
5-Breakout Candlestick Pattern
The type of candlestick at the breakout level can provide insight into whether the breakout is strong or weak
✅Strong bullish candlesticks-: (like large green candles) show strong buying momentum.
✅Weak candles-: (small or indecisive candles) at the breakout point may indicate the move lacks strength, and traders should be cautious.
6-Market Conditions and Broader Trends
Successful breakouts often align with broader market conditions
✅Bullish Breakouts-: Have higher success rates in a bull market or when the overall market is in a positive trend.
✅Bearish Breakouts-: Have more validity during bear markets or corrections.
Analyzing the broader market trend gives context to the breakout and helps assess whether the move is likely to be sustained.
7- Relative Strength and Momentum Indicators
Technical indicators can help confirm the likelihood of a successful breakout. Some popular ones include
✅Relative Strength Index (RSI)-: Helps gauge overbought or oversold conditions. A breakout occurring when the RSI is moving into the overbought range may suggest further upward momentum.
✅Moving Averages-: A breakout accompanied by a crossover of shorter-term moving averages above longer-term ones (e.g., 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day) can provide confirmation.
✅MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)-: A positive divergence between price and MACD can also confirm the strength of a breakout.
8- Timeframe Considerations
Breakouts can occur across different timeframes, from intraday charts to longer-term weekly or monthly charts
✅Short-Term Breakouts-: May be more volatile and prone to false signals, especially during high-frequency trading periods.
✅Longer-Term Breakouts-: Tend to have more reliability, as they involve larger time frames and more data, reducing noise.
9- External Factors and News
✅Sudden breakouts are often triggered by news events, earnings reports, or macroeconomic developments. These external factors can fuel significant price movements and confirm a breakout’s success, especially if the breakout aligns with positive news or earnings surprises.
Conclusion-:
A successful breakout is characterized by a price movement above a key level, confirmed by high volume, solid market sentiment, and technical indicators. Traders should consider all the components together to avoid false breakouts and identify genuine trading opportunities. Moreover, it's important to understand the broader market context and ensure that the breakout aligns with the overall trend to increase the chances of success.
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Best regards- Amit
UPL | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases👈
Price Action Analysis
And this is the accumulation stage -
1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC.
5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume.
All the phases of accumulation stage-
Phase A:
Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend.
-- Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
-- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC).
-- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC.
-- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation.
-- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Phase B:
-- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend
-- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup.
--There are usually multiple STs during Phase B'
-- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
--Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume.
Phase C:
-- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply.
-- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears).
-- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
-- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis.
Phase D:
--During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top
--LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E:
--large operators can occur at any point in Phase E.
--These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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Regards,
Revive Traders
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