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Day Trading vs. Swing Trading: An Overview
Active traders often group themselves into two camps: day traders or swing traders. Both seek to profit from short-term stock movements as opposed to holding securities for long-term growth. The primary difference in the trading strategies is that day traders trade many stocks during a day, while swing traders trade many stocks over a longer time frame, typically two days to a few weeks. Here are the pros and cons of day trading vs. swing trading.
Advantages of Day Trading
Day trading is unlike many other styles of investing. Know for its fast pace and adrenaline-inducing approach, not all investors are suited for this approach to financial markets. However, day trading is arguable more than the pursue of profits: it is a lifestyle of pitting your wits against the market and living in a thrilling, high-risk environment.
Day traders have the opportunity to work independently. Instead of reporting to a firm or following trading direction from a company, any investor with enough personal capital can trade when they want, working as flexible as a schedule as global markets will allow.
Community ideas
Classic breakout failure of triangle patternBank nifty hourly time frame.
A good triangle pattern formed but broke down like brittle glass just after giving an hourly close above the breakout level. This is a classic study opportunity to understand how breakouts fail. Even a positive close doesn't mean anything unless price action supports it.
PS: One can always go short from the low of hourly candle with a very tight SL as major trend is up.
EXPANDED / IRREGULAR FLAT CORRECTIONHello Friends,
Here we had shared some major points and characteristics of Expanded Flat Correction also known as Irregular Flat Correction in Elliott waves.
Principles of Irregular / Expanded Flat correction pattern
1) 3 waves corrective pattern which is labelled as A-B-C
2) Subdivision of wave A and B are in 3-3 waves
3) Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves
4) Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern completes beyond the starting level of wave A
5) Wave C completes beyond the ending level of wave A
Fibonacci measurements
Wave B is always 123.6% to 138.2% of measurement of wave A
Wave C completes at least 123.6% to 161.8% of wave A which starts from end of wave B
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Mastering Risk-to-Reward Ratio: A Crucial Element in TradingTrading in financial markets involves risks, and managing them effectively is essential for success. One crucial aspect of trading is mastering the risk-to-reward ratio. By understanding this concept, traders can enhance their profitability, minimize losses, and achieve consistency in their trading results. In this article, we will explore the significance of the risk-to-reward ratio, strategies to achieve it, factors to consider, case studies, common mistakes to avoid, and tips for developing a risk management plan.
📊 Understanding Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
Definition and Calculation:
The risk-to-reward ratio is the ratio of the potential loss to the potential profit in a trade. It is calculated by dividing the distance between the entry price and stop-loss level by the distance between the entry price and take-profit level. For example, a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 means risking $100 to potentially make $300.
📊 Importance of Risk Management 📊
Risk management is crucial in trading, and the risk-to-reward ratio is a vital component of a trader's risk management strategy. By defining this ratio before entering a trade, traders can evaluate the viability of the trade and align it with their overall trading strategy.
📊 Benefits of Mastering Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Maximizing Profit Potential
By selecting trades with higher potential rewards relative to the risk taken, traders can maximize their profit potential. This approach allows for consistent profitability even if some trades result in losses.
2. Minimizing Losses
A favourable risk-to-reward ratio helps traders limit potential losses by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and adhering to them. This disciplined approach protects trading capital and enables traders to withstand market volatility.
3. Enhancing Consistency
Mastering the risk-to-reward ratio plays a vital role in achieving consistent trading results. By sticking to trades with a favourable ratio, traders can reduce the impact of emotional decision-making and foster consistency.
📊 Strategies for Achieving a Favourable Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Setting Realistic Targets
Identify potential price levels where the risk-to-reward ratio is favourable and focus on trades with higher probability of success. Ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk taken.
2. Proper Position Sizing
Determine the appropriate position size based on risk tolerance and the risk-to-reward ratio of the trade. Allocating a reasonable portion of trading capital to each trade helps manage risk exposure.
3. Implementing Stop-Loss Orders
Place stop-loss orders at predetermined levels to limit potential losses if the trade moves against expectations. Adhering to the predetermined stop-loss level minimizes emotional decision-making.
4. Utilizing Trailing Stops
Trailing stops allow traders to protect profits while still allowing for potential upside. Adjust the stop-loss level as the trade moves in your favour to capture larger gains while protecting against reversals.
📊 Factors to Consider in Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Market Volatility
Consider current market volatility levels and adjust risk-to-reward expectations accordingly. Higher volatility may require wider profit targets and adjusted stop-loss levels.
2. Timeframes and Trading Styles
Different timeframes and trading styles impact the risk-to-reward ratio. Day traders may target smaller profit targets relative to their stop-loss levels, while swing traders may have larger profit targets and wider stop-loss levels.
📊 Case Studies on Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
Example 1: Swing Trading
Consider a swing trading example where a trader identifies a stock with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. The trade has a stop-loss level set at 5% below the entry price and a profit target set at 15% above the entry price.
Example 2: Day Trading
In day trading, where trades are held for a short duration, a trader may aim for a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1 or higher. By targeting favourable ratios, day traders can achieve profitability even if a significant number of trades result in losses.
📊 Common Mistakes to Avoid 📊
1. Ignoring Risk Management
Proper risk management is crucial for long-term success. Always consider the risk-to-reward ratio before entering a trade and prioritize risk management techniques.
2. Chasing High Rewards
Avoid chasing trades with unrealistic risk-to-reward ratios. Focus on identifying trades with a balanced risk-to-reward profile rather than solely pursuing high rewards.
3. Failing to Adapt
Adapt risk parameters based on changing market conditions. Regularly evaluate the risk-to-reward ratio and make necessary adjustments to align with the prevailing market environment.
📊 Developing a Risk Management Plan 📊
1. Assessing Risk Tolerance
Understand personal risk tolerance and align it with the risk-to-reward ratio of potential trades. Avoid taking excessive risks that make you uncomfortable and may lead to emotional decision-making.
2. Setting Risk Limits
Establish predefined limits for the maximum amount you are willing to risk per trade or per day. Setting risk limits protects your capital and maintains control over your trading activities.
📈 Conclusion 📈
Mastering the risk-to-reward ratio is crucial for successful trading. By understanding the concept, implementing effective risk management strategies, and consistently evaluating trades based on their risk-to-reward profiles, traders can improve their profitability and achieve consistent trading results. Remember to prioritize risk management, set realistic targets, and adapt to changing market conditions.
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Investors' Holy Grail - The Business/Economic CycleThe business cycle describes how the economy expands and contracts over time. It is an upward and downward movement of the gross domestic product along with its long-term growth rate.
The business cycle consists of 6 phases/stages :
1. Expansion
2. Peak
3. Recession
4. Depression
5. Trough
6. Recovery
1) Expansion :
Sectors Affected: Technology, Consumer discretion
Expansion is the first stage of the business cycle. The economy moves slowly upward, and the cycle begins.
The government strengthens the economy:
Lowering taxes
Boost in spending.
- When the growth slows, the central bank reduces rates to encourage businesses to borrow.
- As the economy expands, economic indicators are likely to show positive signals, such as employment, income, wages, profits, demand, and supply.
- A rise in employment increases consumer confidence increasing activity in the housing markets, and growth turns positive. A high level of demand and insufficient supply lead to an increase in the price of production. Investors take a loan with high rates to fill the demand pressure. This process continues until the economy becomes favorable for expansion.
2) Peak :
Sector Affected : Financial, energy, materials
- The second stage of the business cycle is the peak which shows the maximum growth of the economy. Identifying the end point of an expansion is the most complex task because it can last for serval years.
- This phase shows a reduction in unemployment rates. The market continues its positive outlook. During expansion, the central bank looks for signs of building price pressures, and increased rates can contribute to this peak. The central bank also tries to protect the economy against inflation in this stage.
- Since employment rates, income, wages, profits, demand & supply are already high, there is no further increase.
- The investor will produce more and more to fill the demand pressure. Thus, the investment and product will become expensive. At this time point, the investor will not get a return due to inflation. Prices are way higher for buyers to buy. From this situation, a recession takes place. The economy reverses from this stage.
3) Recession :
Sector Affected : Utilities, healthcare, consumer staples
- Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession.
- The recession is followed by a peak phase. In this phase economic indicators start melting down. The demand for the goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices.
4) Depression :
- In more prolonged downturns, the economy enters into a depression phase. The period of malaise is called depression. Depression doesn't happen often, but when they do, there seems to be no amount of policy stimulus that can lift consumers and businesses out of their slumps. When The economy is declining and falling below steady growth, this stage is called depression.
- Consumers don't borrow or spend because they are pessimistic about the economic outlook. As the central bank cuts interest rates, loans become cheap, but businesses fail to take advantage of loans because they can't see a clear picture of when demand will start picking up. There will be less demand for loans. The business ends up sitting on inventories & pare back production, which they already produced.
- Companies lay off more and more employees, and the unemployment rate soars and confidence flatters.
5) Trough :
- When economic growth becomes negative, the outlook looks hopeless. Further decline in demand and supply of goods and services will lead to more fall in prices.
- It shows the maximum negative situation as the economy reached its lowest point. All economic indicators will be worse. Ex. The highest rate of unemployment, and No demand for goods and services(lowest), etc. After the completion, good time starts with the recovery phase.
6) Recovery :
Affected sectors: Industrials, materials, real estate
- As a result of low prices, the economy begins to rebound from a negative growth rate, and demand and production are both starting to increase.
- Companies stop shedding employees and start finding to meet the current level of demand. As a result, they are compelled to hire. As the months pass, the economy is once in expansion.
- The business cycle is important because investors attempt to concentrate their investments on those that are expected to do well at a certain time of the cycle.
- Government and the central bank also take action to establish a healthy economy. The government will increase expenditure and also take steps to increase production.
After the recovery phases, the economy again enters the expansion phase.
Safe heaven/Defensive Stocks - It maintains or anticipates its values over the crisis, then does well. We can even expect good returns in these asset classes. Ex. utilities, health care, consumer staples, etc. ("WE WILL DISCUSS MORE IN OUR UPCOMING ARTICLE DUE TO ARTICLE LENGTH.")
It's a depression condition for me that I couldn't complete my discussion after spending many days in writing this article. However, I will upload the second part of this article that will help investors and traders in real life. This article took me a long time to write. I'm not expecting likes or followers, but I hope you will read it.
Have a great day :)
@Money_Dictators
Algorithmic vs. Manual Trading - Which Strategy Reigns Supreme?Intro:
In the dynamic world of financial markets, trading strategies have evolved significantly over the years. With advancements in technology and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), algorithmic trading, also known as algo trading, has gained immense popularity. Algo trading utilizes complex algorithms and automated systems to execute trades swiftly and efficiently, offering numerous advantages over traditional manual trading approaches.
In this article, we will explore the advantages and disadvantages of algo trading compared to manual trading, providing a comprehensive overview of both approaches. We will delve into the speed, efficiency, emotion-free decision making, consistency, scalability, accuracy, backtesting capabilities, risk management, and diversification offered by algo trading. Additionally, we will discuss the flexibility, adaptability, intuition, experience, emotional intelligence, and creative thinking that manual trading brings to the table.
Advantages of Algo trading:
Speed and Efficiency:
One of the primary advantages of algo trading is its remarkable speed and efficiency. With algorithms executing trades in milliseconds, algo trading eliminates the delays associated with manual trading. This speed advantage enables traders to capitalize on fleeting market opportunities and capture price discrepancies that would otherwise be missed. By swiftly responding to market changes, algo trading ensures that traders can enter and exit positions at optimal prices.
Emotion-Free Decision Making: Humans are prone to emotional biases, which can cloud judgment and lead to irrational investment decisions. Algo trading removes these emotional biases by relying on pre-programmed rules and algorithms. The algorithms make decisions based on logical parameters, objective analysis, and historical data, eliminating the influence of fear, greed, or other human emotions. As a result, algo trading enables more disciplined and objective decision-making, ultimately leading to better trading outcomes.
Consistency: Consistency is a crucial factor in trading success. Algo trading provides the advantage of maintaining a consistent trading approach over time. The algorithms follow a set of predefined rules consistently, ensuring that trades are executed in a standardized manner. This consistency helps traders avoid impulsive decisions or deviations from the original trading strategy, leading to a more disciplined approach to investing.
Enhanced Scalability: Traditional manual trading has limitations when it comes to scalability. As trade volumes increase, it becomes challenging for traders to execute orders efficiently. Algo trading overcomes this hurdle by automating the entire process. Algorithms can handle a high volume of trades across multiple markets simultaneously, ensuring scalability without compromising on execution speed or accuracy. This scalability empowers traders to take advantage of diverse market opportunities without any operational constraints.
Increased Accuracy: Algo trading leverages the power of technology to enhance trading accuracy. The algorithms can analyze vast amounts of market data, identify patterns, and execute trades based on precise parameters. By eliminating human error and subjectivity, algo trading increases the accuracy of trade execution. This improved accuracy can lead to better trade outcomes, maximizing profits and minimizing losses.
Backtesting Capabilities and Optimization: Another significant advantage of algo trading is its ability to backtest trading strategies. Algorithms can analyze historical market data to simulate trading scenarios and evaluate the performance of different strategies. This backtesting process helps traders optimize their strategies by identifying patterns or variables that generate the best results. By fine-tuning strategies before implementing them in live markets, algo traders can increase their chances of success.
Automated Risk Management: Automated Risk Management: Managing risk is a critical aspect of trading. Algo trading offers automated risk management capabilities that can be built into the algorithms. Traders can program specific risk parameters, such as stop-loss orders or position sizing rules, to ensure that losses are limited and positions are appropriately managed. By automating risk management, algo trading reduces the reliance on manual monitoring and helps protect against potential market downturns.
Diversification: Diversification: Algo trading enables traders to diversify their portfolios effectively. With algorithms capable of simultaneously executing trades across multiple markets, asset classes, or strategies, traders can spread their investments and reduce overall risk. Diversification helps mitigate the impact of individual market fluctuations and can potentially enhance long-term returns.
Removal of Emotional Biases: Finally, algo trading eliminates the influence of emotional biases that often hinder trading decisions. Fear, greed, and other emotions can cloud judgment and lead to poor investment choices. Byrelying on algorithms, algo trading removes these emotional biases from the decision-making process. This objective approach helps traders make more rational and data-driven decisions, leading to better overall trading performance.
Disadvantage of Algo Trading
System Vulnerabilities and Risks: One of the primary concerns with algo trading is system vulnerabilities and risks. Since algo trading relies heavily on technology and computer systems, any technical malfunction or system failure can have severe consequences. Power outages, network disruptions, or software glitches can disrupt trading operations and potentially lead to financial losses. It is crucial for traders to have robust risk management measures in place to mitigate these risks effectively.
Technical Challenges and Complexity: Technical Challenges and Complexity: Algo trading involves complex technological infrastructure and sophisticated algorithms. Implementing and maintaining such systems require a high level of technical expertise and resources. Traders must have a thorough understanding of programming languages and algorithms to develop and modify trading strategies. Additionally, monitoring and maintaining the infrastructure can be challenging and time-consuming, requiring continuous updates and adjustments to keep up with evolving market conditions.
Over-Optimization: Another disadvantage of algo trading is the risk of over-optimization. Traders may be tempted to fine-tune their algorithms excessively based on historical data to achieve exceptional past performance. However, over-optimization can lead to a phenomenon called "curve fitting," where the algorithms become too specific to historical data and fail to perform well in real-time market conditions. It is essential to strike a balance between optimizing strategies and ensuring adaptability to changing market dynamic
Over Reliance on Historical Data: Algo trading heavily relies on historical data to generate trading signals and make decisions. While historical data can provide valuable insights, it may not always accurately reflect future market conditions. Market dynamics, trends, and relationships can change over time, rendering historical data less relevant. Traders must be cautious about not relying solely on past performance and continuously monitor and adapt their strategies to current market conditions.
Lack of Adaptability: Another drawback of algo trading is its potential lack of adaptability to unexpected market events or sudden changes in market conditions. Algo trading strategies are typically based on predefined rules and algorithms, which may not account for unforeseen events or extreme market volatility. Traders must be vigilant and ready to intervene or modify their strategies manually when market conditions deviate significantly from the programmed rules.
Advantages of Manual Trading
Flexibility and Adaptability: Manual trading offers the advantage of flexibility and adaptability. Traders can quickly adjust their strategies and react to changing market conditions in real-time. Unlike algorithms, human traders can adapt their decision-making process based on new information, unexpected events, or emerging market trends. This flexibility allows for agile decision-making and the ability to capitalize on evolving market opportunities.
Intuition and Experience: Human traders possess intuition and experience, which can be valuable assets in the trading process. Through years of experience, traders develop a deep understanding of the market dynamics, patterns, and interrelationships between assets. Intuition allows them to make informed judgments based on their accumulated knowledge and instincts. This human element adds a qualitative aspect to trading decisions that algorithms may lack.
Complex Decision-making: Manual trading involves complex decision-making that goes beyond predefined rules. Traders analyze various factors, such as fundamental and technical indicators, economic news, and geopolitical events, to make well-informed decisions. This ability to consider multiple variables and weigh their impact on the market enables traders to make nuanced decisions that algorithms may overlook.
Emotional Intelligence and Market Sentiment: Humans possess emotional intelligence, which can be advantageous in trading. Emotions can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and investor psychology. Human traders can gauge market sentiment by interpreting price movements, news sentiment, and market chatter. Understanding and incorporating market sentiment into decision-making can help traders identify potential market shifts and take advantage of sentiment-driven opportunities.
Contextual Understanding: Manual trading allows traders to have a deep contextual understanding of the markets they operate in. They can analyze broader economic factors, political developments, and industry-specific dynamics to assess the market environment accurately. This contextual understanding provides traders with a comprehensive view of the factors that can influence market movements, allowing for more informed decision-making.
Creative and Opportunistic Thinking: Human traders bring creative and opportunistic thinking to the trading process. They can spot unique opportunities that algorithms may not consider. By employing analytical skills, critical thinking, and out-of-the-box approaches, traders can identify unconventional trading strategies or undervalued assets that algorithms may overlook. This creative thinking allows traders to capitalize on market inefficiencies and generate returns.
Complex Market Conditions: Manual trading thrives in complex market conditions that algorithms may struggle to navigate. In situations where market dynamics are rapidly changing, volatile, or influenced by unpredictable events, human traders can adapt quickly and make decisions based on their judgment and expertise. The ability to think on their feet and adjust strategies accordingly enables traders to navigate challenging market conditions effectively.
Disadvantage of Algo Trading
Emotional Bias: Algo trading lacks human emotions, which can sometimes be a disadvantage. Human traders can analyze market conditions based on intuition and experience, while algorithms solely rely on historical data and predefined rules. Emotional biases, such as fear or greed, may play a role in decision-making, but algorithms cannot factor in these nuanced human aspects.
Time and Effort: Implementing and maintaining algo trading systems require time and effort. Developing effective algorithms and strategies demands significant technical expertise and resources. Traders need to continuously monitor and update their algorithms to ensure they remain relevant in changing market conditions. This ongoing commitment can be time-consuming and may require additional personnel or technical support.
Execution Speed: While algo trading is known for its speed, there can be challenges with execution. In fast-moving markets, delays in order execution can lead to missed opportunities or less favorable trade outcomes. Algo trading systems need to be equipped with high-performance infrastructure and reliable connectivity to execute trades swiftly and efficiently.
Information Overload: In today's digital age, vast amounts of data are available to traders. Algo trading systems can quickly process large volumes of information, but there is a risk of information overload. Filtering through excessive data and identifying relevant signals can be challenging. Traders must carefully design algorithms to focus on essential information and avoid being overwhelmed by irrelevant or noisy data.
The Power of AI in Enhancing Algorithmic Trading:
Data Analysis and Pattern Recognition: AI algorithms excel at processing vast amounts of data and recognizing patterns that may be difficult for human traders to identify. By analyzing historical market data, news, social media sentiment, and other relevant information, AI-powered algorithms can uncover hidden correlations and trends. This enables traders to develop more robust trading strategies based on data-driven insights.
Predictive Analytics and Forecasting: AI algorithms can leverage machine learning techniques to generate predictive models and forecasts. By training on historical market data, these algorithms can identify patterns and relationships that can help predict future price movements. This predictive capability empowers traders to anticipate market trends, identify potential opportunities, and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Real-time Market Monitoring: AI-based systems can continuously monitor real-time market data, news feeds, and social media platforms. This enables traders to stay updated on market developments, breaking news, and sentiment shifts. By incorporating real-time data into their algorithms, traders can make faster and more accurate trading decisions, especially in volatile and rapidly changing market conditions.
Adaptive and Self-Learning Systems: AI algorithms have the ability to adapt and self-learn from market data and trading outcomes. Through reinforcement learning techniques, these algorithms can continuously optimize trading strategies based on real-time performance feedback. This adaptability allows the algorithms to evolve and improve over time, enhancing their ability to generate consistent returns and adapt to changing market dynamics.
Enhanced Decision Support:
AI algorithms can provide decision support tools for traders, presenting them with data-driven insights, risk analysis, and recommended actions. By combining the power of AI with human expertise, traders can make more informed and well-rounded decisions. These decision support tools can assist in portfolio allocation, trade execution, and risk management, enhancing overall trading performance.
How Algorithmic Trading Handles News and Events?
In the fast-paced world of financial markets, news and events play a pivotal role in driving price movements and creating trading opportunities. Algorithmic trading has emerged as a powerful tool to capitalize on these dynamics.
Automated News Monitoring:
Algorithmic trading systems are equipped with the capability to automatically monitor news sources, including financial news websites, press releases, and social media platforms. By utilizing natural language processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis techniques, algorithms can filter through vast amounts of news data, identifying relevant information that may impact the market.
Real-time Data Processing:
Algorithms excel in processing real-time data and swiftly analyzing its potential impact on the market. By integrating news feeds and other event-based data into their models, algorithms can quickly evaluate the relevance and potential market significance of specific news or events. This enables traders to react promptly to emerging opportunities or risks.
Event-driven Trading Strategies:
Algorithmic trading systems can be programmed to execute event-driven trading strategies. These strategies are designed to capitalize on the market movements triggered by specific events, such as economic releases, corporate earnings announcements, or geopolitical developments. Algorithms can automatically scan for relevant events and execute trades based on predefined criteria, such as price thresholds or sentiment analysis outcomes.
Sentiment Analysis:
Sentiment analysis is a crucial component of news and event-based trading. Algorithms can analyze news articles, social media sentiment, and other textual data to assess market sentiment surrounding a specific event or news item. By gauging positive or negative sentiment, algorithms can make informed trading decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Algorithmic trading allows for backtesting and optimization of news and event-driven trading strategies. Historical data can be used to test the performance of trading models under various news scenarios. By analyzing the past market reactions to similar events, algorithms can be fine-tuned to improve their accuracy and profitability.
Algorithmic News Trading:
Algorithmic news trading involves the automatic execution of trades based on predefined news triggers. For example, algorithms can be programmed to automatically buy or sell certain assets when specific news is released or when certain conditions are met. This automated approach eliminates the need for manual monitoring and ensures swift execution in response to news events.
Risk Management:
Algorithmic trading systems incorporate risk management measures to mitigate the potential downside of news and event-driven trading. Stop-loss orders, position sizing algorithms, and risk management rules can be integrated to protect against adverse market movements or unexpected news outcomes. This helps to minimize losses and ensure controlled risk exposure.
Flash Crash 2010: A Historic Market Event
On May 6, 2010, the financial markets experienced an unprecedented event known as the "Flash Crash." Within a matter of minutes, stock prices plummeted dramatically, only to recover shortly thereafter. This sudden and extreme market turbulence sent shockwaves through the financial world and highlighted the vulnerabilities of an increasingly interconnected and technology-driven trading landscape.
The Flash Crash Unfolds:
On that fateful day, between 2:32 p.m. and 2:45 p.m. EDT, the U.S. stock market experienced an abrupt and severe decline in prices. Within minutes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged nearly 1,000 points, erasing approximately $1 trillion in market value. Blue-chip stocks, such as Procter & Gamble and Accenture, saw their prices briefly crash to a mere fraction of their pre-crash values. This sudden and dramatic collapse was followed by a swift rebound, with prices largely recovering by the end of the trading session.
The Contributing Factors:
Several factors converged to create the perfect storm for the Flash Crash. One key element was the increasing prevalence of high-frequency trading (HFT), where computer algorithms execute trades at lightning-fast speeds. This automated trading, combined with the interconnectedness of markets, exacerbated the speed and intensity of the crash. Additionally, the widespread use of stop-loss orders, which are triggered when a stock reaches a specified price, amplified the selling pressure as prices rapidly declined. A lack of adequate market safeguards and regulatory mechanisms further exacerbated the situation.
Role of Algorithmic Trading:
Algorithmic trading played a significant role in the Flash Crash. As the markets rapidly declined, certain algorithmic trading strategies failed to function as intended, exacerbating the sell-off. These algorithms, designed to capture small price discrepancies, ended up engaging in a "feedback loop" of selling, pushing prices even lower. The speed and automation of algorithmic trading made it difficult for human intervention to effectively mitigate the situation in real-time.
Market Reforms and Lessons Learned:
The Flash Crash of 2010 prompted significant regulatory and technological reforms aimed at preventing similar events in the future. Measures included the implementation of circuit breakers, which temporarily halt trading during extreme price movements, and revisions to market-wide circuit breaker rules. Market surveillance and coordination between exchanges and regulators were also enhanced to better monitor and respond to unusual trading activity. Additionally, the incident highlighted the need for greater transparency and scrutiny of algorithmic trading practices.
Implications for Market Stability:
The Flash Crash served as a wake-up call to market participants and regulators, underscoring the potential risks associated with high-frequency and algorithmic trading. It highlighted the importance of ensuring that market infrastructure and regulations keep pace with technological advancements. The incident also emphasized the need for market participants to understand the intricacies of the trading systems they employ, and for regulators to continually evaluate and adapt regulatory frameworks to address emerging risks.
The Flash Crash of 2010 stands as a pivotal moment in financial market history, exposing vulnerabilities in the increasingly complex and interconnected world of electronic trading. The event triggered significant reforms and led to a greater focus on market stability, transparency, and risk management. While strides have been made to enhance market safeguards and regulatory oversight, ongoing vigilance and continuous adaptation to technological advancements are necessary to maintain the integrity and stability of modern financial markets.
How Algorithmic Trading Thrives in Changing Markets?
Algorithmic trading (ALGO) can tackle changing market conditions through various techniques and strategies that allow algorithms to adapt and respond effectively. Here are some ways ALGO can address changing market conditions:
Real-Time Data Analysis: Algo systems continuously monitor market data, including price movements, volume, news feeds, and economic indicators, in real-time. By analyzing this data promptly, algorithms can identify changing market conditions and adjust trading strategies accordingly. This enables Algo to capture opportunities and react to market shifts more rapidly than human traders.
Dynamic Order Routing: Algo systems can dynamically route orders to different exchanges or liquidity pools based on prevailing market conditions. By assessing factors such as liquidity, order book depth, and execution costs, algorithms can adapt their order routing strategies to optimize trade execution. This flexibility ensures that algo takes advantage of the most favorable market conditions available at any given moment.
Adaptive Trading Strategies: Algo can utilize adaptive trading strategies that are designed to adjust their parameters or rules based on changing market conditions. These strategies often incorporate machine learning algorithms to continuously learn from historical data and adapt to evolving market dynamics. By dynamically modifying their rules and parameters, algo systems can optimize trading decisions and capture opportunities across different market environments.
Volatility Management: Changing market conditions often come with increased volatility. Algo systems can incorporate volatility management techniques to adjust risk exposure accordingly. For example, algorithms may dynamically adjust position sizes, set tighter stop-loss levels, or modify risk management parameters based on current market volatility. These measures help to control risk and protect capital during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Pattern Recognition and Statistical Analysis: Algo systems can employ advanced pattern recognition and statistical analysis techniques to identify recurring market patterns or anomalies. By recognizing these patterns, algorithms can make informed trading decisions and adjust strategies accordingly. This ability to identify and adapt to patterns helps algocapitalize on recurring market conditions while also remaining adaptable to changes in market behavior.
Backtesting and Simulation: Algo systems can be extensively backtested and simulated using historical market data. By subjecting algorithms to various market scenarios and historical data sets, traders can evaluate their performance and robustness under different market conditions. This process allows for fine-tuning and optimization of algo strategies to better handle changing market dynamics.
In summary, algo tackles changing market conditions through real-time data analysis, dynamic order routing, adaptive trading strategies, volatility management, pattern recognition, statistical analysis, and rigorous backtesting. By leveraging these capabilities, algo can effectively adapt to evolving market conditions and capitalize on opportunities while managing risks more efficiently than traditional trading approaches
The Rise of Algo Traders: Is Technical Analysis Losing Ground?
Although algorithmic trading (algo trading) can automate and optimize certain elements
of technical analysis, it is improbable that it will fully substitute it. Technical analysis is a financial discipline that encompasses the examination of historical price and volume data, chart patterns, indicators, and other market variables to inform trading strategies. There are several reasons why algo traders cannot entirely supplant technical analysis:
Interpretation of Market Psychology: Technical analysis incorporates the understanding of market psychology, which is based on the belief that historical price patterns repeat themselves due to human behavior. It involves analyzing investor sentiment, trends, support and resistance levels, and other factors that can influence market movements. Algo traders may use technical indicators to identify these patterns, but they may not fully capture the nuances of market sentiment and psychological factors.
Subjectivity in Analysis: Technical analysis often involves subjective interpretation by traders, as different individuals may analyze the same chart or indicator differently. Algo traders rely on predefined rules and algorithms that may not encompass all the subjective elements of technical analysis. Human traders can incorporate their experience, intuition, and judgment to make nuanced decisions that may not be easily captured by algorithms.
Market Adaptability: Technical analysis requires the ability to adapt to changing market conditions and adjust strategies accordingly. While algorithms can be programmed to adjust certain parameters based on market data, they may not possess the same adaptability as human traders who can dynamically interpret and respond to evolving market conditions in real-time.
Unpredictable Events: Technical analysis is often challenged by unexpected events, such as geopolitical developments, economic announcements, or corporate news, which can cause significant market disruptions. Human traders may have the ability to interpret and react to these events based on their knowledge and understanding, while algo traders may struggle to respond effectively to unforeseen circumstances.
Fundamental Analysis: Technical analysis primarily focuses on price and volume data, while fundamental analysis considers broader factors such as company financials, macroeconomic indicators, industry trends, and news events. Algo traders may not have the capacity to analyze fundamental factors and incorporate them into their decision-making process, which can limit their ability to fully replace technical analysis.
In conclusion, while algo trading can automate certain elements of technical analysis, it is unlikely to replace it entirely. Technical analysis incorporates subjective interpretation, market psychology, adaptability, and fundamental factors that may be challenging for algorithms to fully replicate. Human traders with expertise in technical analysis and the ability to interpret market dynamics will continue to play a significant role in making informed trading decisions.
The Ultimate Winner - Algo Trading or Manual Trading?
Determining whether algo trading or manual trading is best depends on various factors, including individual preferences, trading goals, and skill sets. Both approaches have their advantages and limitations, and what works best for one person may not be the same for another. Let's compare the two:
Speed and Efficiency: Algo trading excels in speed and efficiency, as computer algorithms can analyze data and execute trades within milliseconds. Manual trading involves human decision-making, which may be subject to cognitive biases and emotional factors, potentially leading to slower execution or missed opportunities.
Emotion and Discipline: Algo trading eliminates emotional biases from trading decisions, as algorithms follow predefined rules without being influenced by fear or greed. Manual trading requires discipline and emotional control to make objective decisions, which can be challenging for some traders.
Adaptability: Algo trading can quickly adapt to changing market conditions and execute trades based on pre-programmed rules. Manual traders can adapt their strategies as well, but it may require more time and effort to monitor and adjust to rapidly evolving market dynamics.
Complexity and Technical Knowledge: Algo trading requires programming skills or the use of algorithmic platforms, which can be challenging for traders without a technical background. Manual trading, on the other hand, relies on an understanding of fundamental and technical analysis, which requires continuous learning and analysis of market trends.
Strategy Development: Algo trading allows for systematic and precise strategy development based on historical data analysis and backtesting. Manual traders can develop their strategies as well, but it may involve more subjective interpretations of charts, patterns, and indicators.
Risk Management: Both algo trading and manual trading require effective risk management. Algo trading can incorporate predetermined risk management parameters into algorithms, whereas manual traders need to actively monitor and manage risk based on their judgment.
Ultimately, the best approach depends on individual circumstances. Some traders may prefer algo trading for its speed, efficiency, and objective decision-making, while others may enjoy the flexibility and adaptability of manual trading. It is worth noting that many traders use a combination of both approaches, utilizing algo trading for certain strategies and manual trading for others.
In conclusion, algorithmic trading offers benefits such as speed, efficiency, and risk management, while manual trading provides adaptability and human intuition. AI enhances algorithmic trading by processing data, recognizing patterns, and providing decision support. Algos excel in automated news monitoring and event-driven strategies. However, the Flash Crash of 2010 exposed vulnerabilities in the interconnected trading landscape, with algorithmic trading exacerbating the market decline. It serves as a reminder to implement appropriate safeguards and risk management measures. Overall, a balanced approach that combines the strengths of both algorithmic and manual trading can lead to more effective and resilient trading strategies.
Stock Market AnimalsThe stock market animals roam the financial landscape, representing optimism or pessimism. These animal metaphors capture the sentiment and beliefs behind the market participants who often try to outsmart each other through their edge in the market.
Here is a list of 7 most popular animal metaphors in the stock market. Maybe it can help some traders to look at themselves in the mirror.
🐮Bulls🐮
Its true that at some point everybody would have been a bull in the stock market but here we are talking about the hardcore bulls who are quintessential symbol of rising market. They never go short on the market and make money from the escalating prices of the stocks. This is because they are always overtly positive about the economy and the companies in which they invest. Undoubtedly, bulls are responsible for the buying pressure in the market.
🐻Bears🐻
Needless to say, bears are exactly the opposite of bulls. They never go long and make money from falling stock prices. Their pessimistic and cautionary view about the markets glue them to their short positions. Thus, bears keep on creating selling pressure in the markets.
🐕Wolf🐕
Wolves are neither bulls nor bears but at the same time they are the both. Wolves are shrewd animals who always seek profit making opportunities on both sides of the market. Due to their aggressive trading they quickly adapt to the changing market conditions. They are able to take advantage of momentum, volatility and short-term price discrepancies. They tend to quietly wait for opportunities rather than hopping on to them.
🐢Turtle🐢
Turtles by their very nature believe in slow money-making ideology. They are the most patient ones among all the other categories. Generally, they marry their investments with a longer-term perspective. They take stock splits, bonuses and pocket dividends to make money. Turtles are steady buyers as well as steady sellers.
🐰Rabbit🐰
Rabbits are the most popular trading creatures. They are Intraday hoppers who trade in both the directions. They may be bullish at 10am and bearish at 10:05am. They believe in small but quick money-making ideology. Characterized as least patient among all the other types of market participants, they are just the opposite of turtles. Generally, they are pushed by the market sentiment to take a large number of trades during the day. However, they square off all profit/loss making positions before market close. They don’t restraint themselves from using a whole lot of indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions. Unfortunately, most rabbits lose money in the market.
🐔Chicken🐔
They are risk-averse creatures who believe in preserving their capital. Market volatility and momentum are not their cup of tea. They invariably take small risk and make smaller money. A small price fluctuation, on either side, may throw them out of the trade.
🦈Shark🦈
Sharks are the market manipulators. With their exceptional potential to drive or hold the prices to certain levels, they look for opportunities to trap weak traders on the wrong side of the market and exploit their fear or greed. Trading pools, large traders and prop firms etc. fall into this category. What makes them different from the rest of the market participants is their access to more accurate market data and mammoth sized Gigabucks at their disposal.
I would not ask your (not so unpredictable) type but would say that there is always room for improvement.
It just needs :
⚡Realization on your part to recognize yourself.
⚡Commitment to follow the discipline needed to transform yourself.
Thanks for reading.
Do like for more educational stuff in future.
Disclaimer: These metaphors are not created by me but views are personal.
supply demand tradingsometimes its not about the supply - demand. If we short at supply zone for the target demand zone. We have seen from the past price has bounced back three times from demand zone now there are few chances to go back to the demand zone unless there is big selling pressure or some bad news. In this case price find the previous support level. Here i have market that with violet line. Price get bounce back from that level. always trade with trend. Price action is the king.
Setup - Hight tight flag | Part - IThis is the first part of the video series where I will explain how a high tight flag setup should look like. This will help you shortlist your focus stocks from the stocks that your scanner throws out.
A high tight flag setup should have the following characteristics. Here I am using daily timeframe:
- The pole is steep. Means high percentage move in a few days.
- Pole consists of big and high volume candles which close at top of the range
- The flag (pullback) should be shallow - retracement less than 50%, preferably less than 30%
- The pullback length should be less than 10 candles. More than 10 indicates lack of buying urgency from institutions, hence dying momentum
- From left to right the flag should get tight (small range candles) and volume should start drying indicating lack of sellers
We go through these three examples to explain the point above:
- IRCTC
- CHOLAFIN
ABCAPITAL
Ratio Charts - NiftyIT vs Nifty500What is a ratio Chart:
Ratio charts play a significant role in technical analysis, offering valuable insights to traders and investors. These charts display the relative performance between two assets or indices by comparing their price movements. By dividing the price of one security by another, ratio charts provide a visual representation of their relationship and help identify trends, patterns, and divergences. This analysis is particularly useful for comparing stocks within the same sector, evaluating the strength of one asset against another, or assessing market breadth. Ratio charts allow for a deeper understanding of market dynamics, aiding in the formulation of informed investment decisions and the identification of potential trading opportunities.
Importance of Ratio Chart Analysis:
Firstly, they help identify relative strength and weakness between assets or indices. By comparing the performance of two securities, traders can assess which one is outperforming or underperforming the other. This analysis is valuable for making informed investment decisions and allocating resources effectively.
Secondly, ratio charts provide insights into market trends and patterns. They can reveal correlations and divergences between assets, which can indicate potential trading opportunities. Traders can identify trends and reversals, spot support and resistance levels, and analyze chart patterns more effectively by using ratio charts.
Furthermore, ratio charts assist in analyzing market breadth. By comparing the performance of multiple stocks or indices within a sector or market, traders can gauge the overall strength or weakness of that particular market segment. This information is crucial for understanding market dynamics and making sector-specific investment decisions.
Overall, ratio charts are a powerful tool in technical analysis, offering a visual representation of relative performance and aiding traders in identifying trends, patterns, and opportunities for profitable trading strategies.
7 Important Tips for Risk Management Hey everyone!
While trading and investing offer the opportunity for profit, there is always the potential for loss.
Here are a couple of time-tested tips to help you in understanding and managing your risk better.
📝 Develop a Trading Plan
─ Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful.
─ You should have a detailed trading plan in place prior to engaging in any trades.
─ Your plan should include essential components such as the entry point, a strategically defined stop-loss level to mitigate potential losses, and target levels to define your anticipated profit points.
─ Having a well-structured plan equips you with a roadmap during stressful trading situations and ensures that your trades are consistently aligned with your risk tolerance threshold.
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🧘♂️ Understand your Risk Tolerance
─ Risk is subjective. Different traders have different personalities and systems, hence a different risk tolerance.
─ Start with self-reflection: Begin by reflecting on your own attitudes, beliefs, and emotions towards risk. Consider how comfortable you are with the possibility of losing money, how patient you are with market fluctuations, and how much stress or anxiety you can handle when investments don't go as planned. Understanding your own psychological and emotional response to risk is crucial in determining your risk tolerance.
─ Consider your financial situation: Take into account your current financial situation, including your income, savings, debts, and expenses. A thorough understanding of your financial resources and obligations will help you gauge the amount of risk you can afford to take.
─ There is no “One-size-fits-all” approach . Find out what suits your needs based on your account size, age, long-term plan, and other key variables that are specifically unique to your circumstances. Then, implement it accordingly.
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📚 Follow your Trading System
─ Develop a clear and comprehensive trading system that outlines your approach, rules, and criteria for entering and exiting trades.
─ A well-designed system provides structure and discipline, helping you avoid impulsive decisions driven by emotions or short-term market fluctuations.
─ A trading system is essential because it requires you to think deeply about your approach to markets before you begin risking real money.
─ Backtest and research your system: Validate the effectiveness of your trading system by backtesting it against historical market data. This allows you to assess its performance and identify any potential flaws or areas for improvement. Additionally, research and analyze your system under various market conditions to understand its adaptability and resilience.
─ Evaluate your system's performance in different scenarios: Simulate your system's performance in different market environments, including bear markets or periods of increased volatility. By assessing how your system would fare in adverse conditions, you can gauge its robustness and make necessary adjustments to enhance its overall effectiveness.
─ Some traders keep hopping strategies after a series of losses. This usually leads to more losses and is unproductive in the long term.
─ Stick to your system with a verifiable edge: If your trading system has been thoroughly tested, backtested, and proven to have an edge, have confidence in it and adhere to its rules consistently. Consistently following a system that has demonstrated positive expectancy over time increases your chances of generating consistent profits in the long run.
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🚨 Use a Stop-Loss
─ A stop-loss order is an order that is placed at a predetermined price level and can help in limiting your losses if the trade goes against you.
─ In general, this predetermined price level is the level at which your trade idea gets invalidated.
─ A stop loss helps in protecting against emotional decision-making and allows you to maintain discipline in your trading system. Implementing a stop-loss order ensures that you have predefined risk parameters, allowing you to quantify and control your downside risk.
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✂️ Manage your Position Size
─ Effectively managing your position size is crucial in mitigating risk and maximizing potential returns.
─ By carefully determining the appropriate position size, you can avoid excessive exposure in any single trade.
─ Trading is a game of probabilities. Hence, a trader should never put all his eggs in one basket and if he does, then he should be well aware of it.
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❌ Don't Overtrade or Revenge Trade
─ Resist the temptation to overtrade or engage in revenge trading, even in the face of losses.
Attempting to recover losses through higher-risk trades is never a good idea and can lead to even bigger losses.
─ It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster.
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📔 Maintain a Trading Journal
─ A trading journal can help you in identifying the shortcomings in your trading.
─ By documenting your trades, you gain valuable insights into your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Regularly reviewing and evaluating your journal allows you to identify patterns, mistakes, and areas for improvement.
─ This self-reflection enables you to fine-tune your strategies, refine your risk management techniques, and enhance your overall trading approach.
─ Moreover, a trading journal helps instil discipline and accountability by keeping a record of your trading actions and outcomes. It serves as a reference point for future analysis and learning, enabling you to continuously evolve as a trader.
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Thanks for reading! I hope you enjoyed this post. Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
Trade safe. Be smart. I’ll see you in the next one. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Power of 25, 75, and 125-Minute Timeframes in the Indian MarketSelecting the right time frame for technical analysis is a crucial decision for any technical analyst. In the Indian market, the trading session lasts for 375 minutes, starting from 9:15 AM and ending at 3:30 PM. While many traders commonly use the 30-minute, 1-hour, and 2-hour time frames, these intervals often result in incomplete candles, which can distort the accuracy of the analysis. Instead, opting for the 25-minute, 75-minute, and 125-minute time frames can provide more complete data, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Drawbacks of traditional time frames:
When using a 30-minute time frame, there are 13 candles formed, with the last candle representing only 15 minutes of trading. This disrupts the technical analysis process. By switching to a 25-minute time frame, traders can overcome this issue and work with 15 complete candles per trading day.
Traditional 1-hour time frames produce 7 candles, including a final 15-minute candle, which interrupts the smooth flow of technical analysis. By adopting a 75-minute time frame, traders can obtain 5 complete candles, offering a more comprehensive perspective on price movements.
Instead of confining analysis to a 2-hour time frame, which results in an incomplete final candle, traders can harness the power of a 125-minute time frame. With 3 complete candles per trading session, each representing a 125-minute interval, a more comprehensive understanding of price dynamics can be achieved.
Benefits:
Enhanced accuracy in analysing price action, as each candle represents a complete interval of 25, 75, or 125 minutes.
Reduced gaps in price action, as each candle becomes a complete unit of time.
Clearer depiction of trends with fewer distractions from incomplete candles.
Improved visibility of trends, as each candle provides a more representative snapshot of the price action.
A more holistic view of the market, aiding in the identification of key support and resistance levels. If you utilize concepts like RBR, RBD, DBR, and DBD, it is recommended to use these time frames, as the presence of an incomplete candle can inadvertently impact your analysis. You may mistakenly consider the last incomplete candle as a base or leg candle, which can affect your overall analysis.
Conclusion:
In the Indian stock market, precision and accuracy are vital for successful trading. By embracing unconventional time frames like 25 minutes, 75 minutes, and 125 minutes, traders can enhance their technical analysis capabilities and gain a competitive edge. Although these specific time frames are available through TradingView's paid plans, traders without access can still utilize traditional time frames. However, it is essential to recognize the limitations and potential disruptions caused by incomplete candles. Embracing the power of these alternative time frames unlocks a clearer and more comprehensive view of the market, empowering traders to make confident trading decisions.
This article is written by Afnan Tajuddin with the aim of encouraging Indian traders to adopt powerful timeframes commonly used by professional traders, to enhance their technical analysis skills.
If you found this article helpful, please consider following me for more analysis and educational articles. Your likes and comments are appreciated, as they motivate me to provide more analysis for you. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comment box below.
Thank you for reading this educational article.
Try to be a Pattern ObserverWe can see the patterns repeat in charts
One has to be an observer when viewing charts, if you focus on patterns and check similar pattern in history, you will be able to judge what next can come with the stock
Pattern Repetition:
Historical patterns tend to repeat themselves in the market due to the influence of human psychology and market dynamics. By observing and studying patterns, traders can gain insights into how the market has behaved in the past, helping them make informed decisions about future price movements.
Pattern Identification by Considering Safety in Analysis!Pattern Identification on any Timeframe!
Importance of the Factor of Safety in Projected Target To avoid the Losses!
How to identify Patterns and Project the Target on the chart!
I have selected NVDA weekly chart for Technical Analysis. Here the Head and Shoulder pattern formed on the Top. We can see the previous trend of NVDA was an Uptrend so the probability of high that trend will get reversed after the neckline breakdown and the price has given breakdown to the neckline and it went down.
I have projected the downside target by projecting the head to neckline length below the neckline. But we all know that, the things which are given in a theory doesn't work 100% all the time. So to avoid the buffer between Theory and Practical I have projected the line parallel to the neckline from the projected taregt so we should exit our position without waiting for the Theoretical projected target. This is my personal view to exit from our existing position without waiting till the end. Most of the time what happens is price reversed before our projected target. That's the reason i am sahring this Educational Idea to achieve maximum profit by considering Factor of Safety or You can exit your trade by achieving 80% - 90% of your projected profit.
If you like this Educational Idea then Comment Below!
Thank you!
Determining trend and consolidation through wave cycles.MCX:GOLD1!
In past, we have discussed how to know the quality of a trend and how to know a chart pattern's extrinsic nature according to the market phase.
If you haven't read that then I want you to read that before to have a better understanding of this idea.
Let's get started!!
How to determine the trend or consolidation through the wave cycles and degrees.
The trend moves in 3 different wave degrees:- For example , think of it like a multi-timeframe analysis.
1. Higher wave cycle (HWC) - This is a 1-month time frame trend.
2. Medium wave cycle (MWC) - This is a 1-day time frame trend.
3. Lower wave cycle (LWC) - This is 30 min time frame trend.
So Without knowing which wave cycle is being traded one can encounter these problems:-
1. Inability to select consistent breakout levels.
2. Inability to select effective stop loss levels.
3. Inability to apply effective stop sizing.
4. Inability to distinguish between trend and consolidation mode.
5. Inability to determine the direction of the predominant trend.
How can we eliminate these complications?
1. Consolidation and Trend Action in Terms of Wave Cycles and Degrees.
A market may be both in trend and consolidation modes at the same time, depending on the wave cycle being observed.
2. We may also define breakouts via the degree of the wave cycles.
Different degrees of waves help in determining whether a breakout will gonna be valid or not as a range formation near the higher wave cycle resistance zone will likely fail.
In the above figure:-
we have breakouts based on waves of lower, medium, and higher degrees. In other words, the breakout level will depend on the wave degree being traded. Being aware of the wave degree being traded will allow the trader to size the stop-loss effectively, according to the average wave amplitude and volatility associated with that particular wave degree.
3. Significance of higher wave degree reversals
When big market trends change direction, it affects smaller trends as well. This is because all the smaller trends are part of the bigger trend. So, when the big trend changes, the smaller trends also change in the same direction. This is important to understand because it means that when you see a change in a big trend, it's a sign that many smaller trends are also changing. However, smaller trends changing doesn't necessarily mean the big trend will change too.
Conclusion:- Always know which wave cycle you are trading and at what point you stand in that wave cycle.
Note: In upcoming Ideas, we will cover how Waves are used in the Elliott Wave concept.
I hope this short idea on trend or consolidation determination has added some knowledge and helped in improving your trading.
please like and comment with your views on this idea.
Keep learning,
Happy trading.
Thank you for reading.
Relation between Gann Angle, Gann Price and Time “ if you stick strictly to the rule, and always watch when price is squared by time, or when time and price come together, you will be able to forecast the important changes in trend with greater accuracy”. - Gann
I was preparing a presentation in Gann Square of 9 and while looking into the details of Gann Angles, I had a severe headache.
Gann's cryptic approach to sharing his methods created a sense of exclusivity and mystique, attracting a cult following of traders who sought to unravel the secrets behind his success. This allure stemmed from the belief that Gann possessed unique insights into the markets that were inaccessible to the average trader.
Then I re-read the line, examining it thoroughly, just as I used to do when solving the challenging problems of Irodov. The concept is straightforward, so I am creating a chart to guide fellow explorers on this journey.
#Intraday trading strategy #BB Band A Bollinger Band is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price, but which can be adjusted to user preferences. Bollinger Bands are a highly popular technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
Key takes
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger for generating oversold or overbought signals
There are three lines that compose Bollinger Bands: A simple moving average (middle band) and an upper and lower band.
The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple moving average (which is the centre line), but they can be modified.
When the price continually touches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate an overbought signal while continually touching the lower band indicates an oversold signal
TRADING RULES YOU NEED TO LIVE BY1.Wait, wait & wait only for best setups or High probability trades.
2.Only take risk on high probablity trade.
3.Risk 1% of your capital in any given trade but also know when to break the rules.
4.Cut-losses short, let winnings trade run.
5.Set alerts and do not watch screen continuously.
6.Take limited trades in a day.
7.After hitting SL do not take random trades(learn to take small losses to protect your past days profit/or getting out of emotional control)
8.Trade the setups and follow the trend.( taking trades with the market trends increases the winning probablity by 25%)
9.Study & do your own chart analysis.
10.Be prepared in mind what & how you will perform after market openings of after getting a loss.
11.Take care of your Body & mind and also follow healthy diet routine.
Thanks
Amit Sharma
4 STEPS FOR A BETTER TRADERHello Guys according to mine experience and knowledge Some things I think are necessary to become a Better trader, so I am sharing all of them with you.
⚡⚡TRADING TOOLS-: (Contains Indicators & Other Soft tools like Screeners Or other software)
So as we all know that a after a good Physical Setup (internet connection, Computers or other gadgets) we also need some other tools like indicators or screeners and alerts in our system for better trading and quick executions. So these all things should be Good and make sure that the indicators which you are using are Backtested properly by paper trading or by virtual trading.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-:Technical traders and chartists have a wide variety of indicators, patterns, and oscillators in their toolkit to generate signals.
-:Some of these consider price history, others look at trading volume, and yet others are momentum indicators. Often, these are used in tandem or combination with one another.
⚡⚡TRADING SYSTEM-:
A trading system is a set of rules that can be based on technical indicators, chart or candlestick pattern where a system tells the trader when and how to trade, likewise a long term trader or investors taking trades or doing investments on fundamentals basis and so it is known for sure that the more familiar a trader is with their trading system, the better their odds at being consistently profitable so always try to learn more than trade for getting a good trading system.
⚡⚡RISK MANGEMENT-:
Risk management includes the Stop loss, portion size of trade and capital allocation in trades from which you can define how much risk you can take in any of trade or investments which are pre-defined according to you trading system and the basis of identified stop losses for entry or exits which helps cut down losses. It can also help protect traders accounts from losing all of its capital.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
-:Trading can be exciting and even profitable if you are able to stay focused, do due diligence, and keep emotions at bay.
-:Still, the best traders need to incorporate risk management practices to prevent losses from getting out of control.
-:Having a strategic and objective approach to cutting losses through stop orders, profit taking, and protective puts is a smart way to stay in the game.
⚡⚡MINDSET-: (LAST BUT NOT THE LEAST, MOST IMPORTANT)
The correct mindset in trading is one that is dedicated, focused, disciplined, confident, has no ego, has no fear of losing, and has detachment to money. For those not into trading, this might sound a little weird. Most traders focus on developing strategies in order to make money.
If you have developed profitable trading edges and trading strategies, it’s time to move on to the next level, which is developing a good mindset for trading. The correct mindset in trading makes you follow your trading edges and strategies!
When you get experience in day trading or other time frames in trading you’ll discover that trading is certainly not as easy as it seems. Quite the opposite. If you can’t follow the rules of the strategies, you simply have no trading strategy. Trading discipline is what most traders need. The correct mindset in trading is what separates good and bad traders!
SOME ADVICES-:
A trader needs to be dedicated.
A trader must know himself/herself.
A trader stays focused all the time.
Disciplined Trading always avoid compulsory or impulsive trading.
Always separates confidence and overconfidence like a good Trader.
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬-: 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐣𝐚𝐧
CASE STUDY -- ZERO TO HERO -- HERO TO ZEROHere I am doing study on the monthly chart of Take Solutions on the basis of chart because I saw it stirred up so much in last 10-15 years delivered multiple returns to investors from both the scales Negative and Positive.
BEFORE TURNING MILTI BAGGER
As you can see on chart stock was listed in the year of 2007 august at the price of 88 and went up to 135 gained more the 50% till December 2007 and took a resistance near about 130 zones and down to 16 rupees which is a cut of near about 90% from that time tops and 80% cut from the listing price and after it did a mega consolidations in parallel channel from the year 2009 to 2014 with taking a channel resistance of 43 levels and the support of 20 levels of channel, and gives a breakout in the year end of 2014 from that channel after gives an other breakout of its first resistance zone too which made after resistance after it did a breakout retest successfully and went up to the all time high of 308 levels with a high parabolic move which is the gains of near about 580% from channel and 150% from retest or first listing resistance.
AFTER THE END OF A PARABOLIC MOVE
As you can see after the massive gains of after two breakouts it meting down sharply because on the second month closing from ATH it closed 227 levels which was a negative return of 26% from tops and clearly indicated that the top is identified from the smart money which due to which price has come here and the supply is going on still I don't know that but was the disaster changes was happened there in company or in fundamentals but as we always says in technical that the charts are self explanatory and explained that it is is clear cut exit whether in profit or loss because the profit that is happening probably will not be more than this and the loss that is happening can turn much more than this so after supply and re-supply stock came to the down trend as it gives a close of it's retest levels of 130 jones tanked 90% from there.
CONCLUSION (KEY TAKEAWAYS)
1- Parabolic moves are not stable such type of moves are always caution able.
2- Always get ready to book your position in loss or profit like a Active trader keep a watch regularly.
3- Do study on the chart patterns or indicators from which you can identify the lump sum tops.
4- Always decide a Trailing stop loss if you are in profit in Long position that how much you can leave.
5- Always associated with chart it can give you early signals it may possible we are wrong but it will save you from making big mistakes.
6- Always do Discipline trading with proper risk management.
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬-: 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐣𝐚𝐧