Support and Resistance
U-TURN Resistance converts into Support (EDUCATIONAL -AARTIIND) Aarti Ind. ltd. This stock has taken Resistance twice at same level, then it consolidated as a parallel channel at that same zone,
and then it given good breakout from parallel channel along with good intensity of volume,
Now it has retraced almost 78.6%, co-incidentally (1) same resistance zone, (2) Parallel channel's top, (3) Support trend line and (4) 200 DEMA, all are there at similar point location, All these 5 conditions met at same level that can provide good support. This scenario makes probabilities very strong each time. where stop loss is too low and Reward is too Good.
Overall scenario
Perfectly U-turn from valid fibonaccy level 0.786%
Daily macd line uptick and also converging towards positive
Good support zone
Support providing 100DEMA also at same responding zone
Parallel channel scenario
Support Trend line
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are for educational purpose only
Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing
I am not responsible for your profits and losses
MARKET REVERSAL-IDENTIFYING BULL STRENGTH WITH CONFLUNECE1] 15 min candle taken support on PREVIOUS DAY Trendline and stronger rejection for
consecutive 3 candle (no 15 min candle close below trendline) and respecting
PREVIOUS DAY trendline indicating that bull are strong enough and trying hard -
during running market -(IS STRONG SIGNAL WITH CONFLUENCE)
2] forming strong hammer candle at day low, SO ENTRY IS PERFECT
AFTER BREAKING HIGHER HIGH OF HAMMER CANDLE
Pure Price Action TradeIn this Idea I'm going to share the simple price action trade which I have taken the May month in the stock D-MART.
Before taking any trade a trader must have find at least 3 confluences which align in the same direction so that we have a clear vision of the particular trade either it's a short trade or buy. By doing you are following a number of certain rules that will help you to make your trading emotionless and more disciplined.
For me I'm fan of price action trading which undergoes through Trends, S&R levels, Candlestick pattern, Chart pattern and sometimes EMA also.
In this trade of D-MART the price was facing resistance continuously from Area-1 and taking support from Area-2 at the moment when it broke the support level it made a proper morning star pattern at a very crucial S&R level which I had represented by the purple horizontal line.
Human nature and psychology could never change so this pattern can come again.
At this point we can easily see the confluences-
1)Trend- Reversed
2)S&R LEVEL
3)Candlestick pattern
Entry- 2809
Stops-2668
Targets-3090
R:R = 1:2
-NITIN
Think & Trade Like Banks / Institutions / HNIYes it is possible.
We have been taught many things but not the basics so that the 5% of the whole trading community remains profitable.
The key to producing trading income in the stock markets is having a strategy that anticipates market turns and market moves with a very high degree of accuracy. To do this, you must be able to identify where banks and institutions are buying and selling in the market by looking at a price chart. This means training your eye to identify institution and bank demand and supply by looking at a price chart.
Bank Nifty !! Elliot WavesThe analysis base on Elliott Wave Theory in weekly and daily time frame.
Elliott wave has three parts :
a) Impulse wave (Point 0-1, 2-3, 4-5), which net travels in the same direction (higher high) as the larger trend, always shows five waves in its pattern.
b) Corrective wave (Point 1-2, 3-4), on the other hand, net travels in the opposite direction (higher low) of the main trend.
c) Followed by three waves in a correction (A,B,C) - Lower High and Lower Low.
The Elliot waves combined with fib retrenchment give a broader idea to identify trend and reversal.
Disclaimer : Consult financial advisor before trading.
Thanks
BANKNIFTY Levels for Expiry Day !🛑in Yesterday market analysis i told that there's indecision between buyers and sellers at high level , and today also market is rejected from 38800 - 38900 levels and if you see the BANKNIFTY in Day frame chart we can clearly observe that it forming bearish candles at higher levels
-in today market we can observe that there's is indecision between sellers and buyers at higher levels and Caution it is bull market (Showing that no more buying interest for Institutional traders and that can be confirmed by FIIs ,DIIs data these two were pulling out their money)
-Bank nifty trading above all the moving averages those were 21 day, 50 day , and 100 day
- Bank Nifty WEEKLY Pivot is at 38800
🛑 keys Levels to watch out for day traders
- resistance is at 39450 - 39850
-with the stop loss of 39700
- we can see target of 40000
- Support Levels is at 39400-39300
- with SL of 39500
- we can see Target of 39000
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have a nice day
NIFTY 50 crucial levels for Expiry Day! - i was keep telling that market is opening in huge gap up it is not a encouraging move for market , now filling those gaps
- another thing to remember while investing in stocks , Smart money is moving away from market
- Day Volatility is increased by Nearly 5% , if anyone taken trade without knowing crucial S&R they will hitted by SL
-Currently NIFTY is trading above 21Day ,50 Day, 100 Day moving averages
- - WEEKLY pivot point is at 18180
🛑 Key levels to watch out for intraday traders :-
- resistance is at 18470 - 18500 (here we can see ( option chain) more short positions were holding at 18500 CE)
-with SL of 18400
- 18570 we can see as the target after breakout
- support level is at 18200 - 18180
-with the SL of 18250
- 18100 we can see as target after breakdown
if you like it do follow for more , Have a nice day ...
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INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN... NIFTY PHARMA!Inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a bullish reversal pattern.
A breakout of the neckline after completion of the right shoulder triggers the rally in the underlying script.
In individual scripts, the breakout can be confirmed with good volumes traded.
The share price can retrace and take support at the trendline (the resistance line now acts as support). This is the next confirmation of the bullish trend.
The distance between the head and the neckline if projected above the neckline can be considered as the target ahead.
In nifty pharma, the index has been consolidating for almost 4 months now. A clear breakout of this neckline can be seen. The index also shows a retest of the trendline and looks like the rally has started. The target should be 15550 (calculated from the height of the head to the neckline).
Happy trading!
USD breakoutThis analysis is done for educational purpose only. As we can see USD has given breakout on weekly charts. USD and nifty are very well connected to each other and rise in USD can lead to profit booking in Nifty. This is a temporary phase in the market, therefore, next couple of weeks we can see profit booking in Nifty. One can long USD and short Nifty to hedge.
What are Falling and Rising Wedge Patterns?What Is the Wedge Pattern and Its Common Characteristics?
1. Wedge patterns have converging trend lines that come to an apex with a distinguishable upside or downside slant.
a. Wedge with an upside slant is called a rising wedge
b. Wedge with downside slant is called falling wedge
2. It has declining volumes as the pattern progresses
3. It breaks out from one of the trend lines
Why We Should Pay Attention to Wedge Patterns?
Some studies suggest that a wedge pattern will breakout towards a reversal rather than a continuation more often than two-thirds of the time. Therefore as the rule of thumb, people generally treat a falling wedge as a bullish pattern and a rising wedge as a bearish pattern , especially a falling wedge would be a more reliable reversal indicator than a rising wedge
Since we know a wedge pattern has a higher probability to reverse and due to the fact that the price of wedge pattern converges to a smaller area, we can trade the reversal set up with a relatively close stop loss to its entry price, which provides us with a good trading opportunity with a decent Risk:Reward ratio.
Examples of a Bullish Rising Wedge and Bearish Falling Wedge
Sadly, there is nothing that works 100% in trading. Not every rising or falling wedge will reverse as one might expect. Every trader must properly manage their risk by setting stop losses and not just trading based on price patterns. Below are two examples.
Bullish Rising Wedge ( ETHUSDT during 15/NOV/20 - 28/DEC/20)
In the early stages of the epic 20-21 bull market, if traders blindly treat the rising wedge as a bearish signal and trade accordingly, they would pay a heavy price.
Bearish Falling Wedge ( LTCUSD during 14/AUG/18 - 14/NOV/18)
On the contrary, in the late stage of the 2018 bear market, any trader who blindly trades the falling wedge to bet on a reversal would also learn a hard lesson.
Comment down your thoughts on Wedge Patterns in the comment section.
Disclaimer:
This is just an educational post. Never trade just any pattern. And please do your research before making any trades.
Happy Trading!
What is Ascending Triangle?What is an Ascending Triangle Pattern?
Ascending Triangle Pattern is a continuation pattern that means when it plays out it will continue the preceding trend. It is created by price moves that allow for an upper horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs, and a lower rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. These two lines form an ascending triangle . Traders here usually watch for breakouts from upper resistance in ascending triangle patterns.
How does the Ascending Triangle Pattern work?
After the prior uptrend when investors try to book profits it creates a resistance that leads to a high supply zone . But due to the prior uptrend investors are still interested in the asset which leads to picking up in demand slowly, resulting in a rising trendline. Time in this phase is also a crucial element. The longer this pattern consolidates, the more chances it has to give a possible breakout to continue the uptrend.
Why is the Ascending Triangle Pattern Unique?
Ascending triangle patterns usually have a higher breakout success rate than symmetrical triangle patterns. In an ascending triangle , higher lows are constantly being built, which shows there is a strong demand for the asset.
Role of Volume:
Volume plays a major role in the completion of all major patterns. The horizontal trendline which acts as resistance can give spikes in volume . We will call it a breakout when a candle closes above horizontal resistance level with a great volume spike or rise in average volume .
Above Chart Explanation:
This is the 4H chart of FTTUSDT with a clear preceding upward trend. After the uptrend, we enter the second phase where the upper horizontal line becomes resistance 4 times in a row and the lower rising trendline becomes support 3 times in a row. As we have observed here FTTUSDT consolidated for nearly 1 month in an ascending triangle pattern, which finally led to a super bullish breakout.
Two Possible Entries:
Entry 1: On rising support, when the price touches the rising support trendline and if there is rising average volume , it makes a good entry with a stop loss placed below the previous higher low point.
Entry 2: On resistance breakout, we should wait for the 4H candle to close above the resistance to confirm the breakout’s validity. Once the breakout is valid, a potential opportunity would be to enter at the close of the 4H candle with a stop loss placed a little below the breakout level. Usually, we should target the height of the triangle after the breakout.
Comment down your thoughts on Ascending Triangle Pattern in the comment section.
Disclaimer:
This is just an educational post. Never trade just any pattern. And please do your research before making any trades.
Happy Trading!
PS we are posting this again for our Indian Audience.
Importance of Multiple Confirmations-Indicator Free AnalysisIndicator Free Analysis with Fibonacci Ratio Integration:
The above is a daily chart of Alkyl Amine, a quality monopoly stock with clear cut competitive edge in its respective industry. We can observe that a previous resistance was present at 4000 levels which was broken with big bullish harami green candles accompanied with volume. A basic rule of chart analysis is whenever a stock breaks out of its resistance, the resistance is transformed into a support. Thus the stock again comes back to the resistance level in order to check if it has turned into support. This is called retest or throwback. Here the stock has tested the 4000 levels 2-3 times and is now trying to head upwards.
In addition, if we draw a fib chart, we can see that the stock is taking support at the 0.618 levels which can be regarded as ultimate support zone.
We can also observe that a bullish Flag and Pole is formed which indicates upmove
How to trade the stock?
The stock can be traded in two ways depending on one's risk appetite and experience.
Entry:
For risky and experienced traders:
They can enter the stock after a bullish candle (such as that of today is formed) is formed with a SL below 3900.
For safe traders:
They can enter the stock as soon as the stock gives a breakout above the flag i.e. formation of a bullish green candle with closing above flag.
Benefits of early trade:
By entering early, the experienced or risky traders decrease their stoploss to a great margin. Thus it is possible for them to re-enter if the stock hits the StopLoss and again moves up.
Benefits of Confirmed Trade:
By entering after the breakout and retest of the Flag pattern, a safe trader increases the probability of success to a great extent.
Where should the target be?
The target should be the tip of the Flag i.e. 4750.
Where should be the Stop Loss?
For the early entree, the Stop Loss should be just below the support trendline of 4000 i.e 3900
For the safe trader, the Stop Loss should be placed just below the upper trendline of the Flag i.e. around 4100-4150
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How to draw in Support and Resistance - Education1. What is support and resistance?
Support - Area on your chart with potential buying pressure
Support - Area on your chart with potential buying pressure
Most of the text books says the more times support and resistance is tested, it become stronger.
But the truth is the more time it tested it becomes weaker. ( Refer the Image).
2. Support and Resistance is not Line in Chart:
Most of think support and resistance is line in the chart, where they face 2 problems,
a. Price undershoot and you miss the trade or
b. Price overshoot and assume Resistance is broken
it's become false breakout.
How to address this problem?
Simple, Treat support and resistance as area on your chart not lines.
Why S&R are area on your chart?
Because of 2 groups of traders
i Traders with fears of missing
ii Traders who want to get possible price
I will explain in detail:
traders with fear of missing out would enter their trades the moment price comes close to support and if there's enough buying pressure the market reverse at the location
on other way, there are traders who want to get best possible price so they place orders at the low of support and if enough traders do it the market will reverse near the lows of support.
But one thing for sure:
We have no idea which group of traders will be in control, whether its FOMO or Cheapo traders.
Hence, S&R are areas on our chart not lines.
3. Dynamic Support and Resistance:
What we have seen before are Horizontal S&R ( Where the areas are fixed).
Now we are going to see Dynamic S&R
There are 2 ways to identify Dynamic S&R
A. Moving Average
B. Trendline
How to use Moving Average as Dynamic S&R
I here use EMA50 and EMA79 to identify my dynamic SR.
But any moving average you can use. (Either SMA, WMA, DMA any number too. Do not blindly follow others)
Trendline:
Trendlines are diagonal lines on chart to identify the dynamic S&R
Notes: Treat S&R as areas on your chart not lines.
This is how we can draw a support and resistance . From now we can understand how to draw a support and resistance.
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Trade Using Multiple Trend Lines
Important Note:- Very complex and professional techniques I have discussed in the below texts. So my friends read this minimum 3 times, otherwise you will not get the inside what I'm saying about.
See how a professional trader using multiple trend lines in a chart and find out opportunities.
1. Here you can see two old trendlines are there and two new trend lines i.e. support & resistance line.
2. Price has been take support and resistance in different different position of the chart and if we join them then we can see a different trend channel in different angle along with previous one.
3. Trend channel already change few months ago i.e. new support line and new resistance line.
4. Now break in the upside direction.
5. So we can take position on direction of the breakout.
But my friends there is something more in this story,
Actually we can't recognize multiple support and resistance in same direction , that's why we can't draw trend lines there. Reality is there is the difference, between professionals and intermediate or beginners.
We have to look into the chart in different way all the time then you can see the chart differently or in professional way. In this chart the price already break the old resistance line and now it's break the new resistance line with big bullish candle. Also previous support and resistance line nothing but a symmetrical triangle pattern.
By using multiple trend lines you can see the different opportunity in different position of the chart and you have to choose the correct one which have highest provability to move the price in your way.
I know this concept is little bit complex but if you download this in your mind, in near future you will get the taste of success.
Indicator Free Trading of Cup and Handle Pattern - A Case StudyThe above chart is the daily chart of Bharat Electronics . Here we can observe that the stock has formed a Cup and Handle Pattern. Now I shall elaborate in detail on how to trade the Cup and Handle Pattern with appropriate Trading strategy and Psychology.
In the above chart, we can observe a stiff resistance at 160 levels for the stock. Hence it needs to be hit multiple times to make it weak and finally give a breakout. In case of a Cup and Handle Pattern, the resistance is hit a minimum of 3 times, before giving a breakout. In this case, we observe an ideal scenario which may not be the case always.
How to Trade Cup and Handle Pattern?
Trading Strategems:
When to enter?
There can be 2 fundamental ways to trade the stock.
1. Take Entry as as soon as stock breaks out of the pattern (Entry 1) i.e. at 161-163. Generally an experienced trader or a trader with good risk appetite takes entry here.
Trading Tip - Even if you have good risk appetite, do not take trade as soon as the breakout occurs. Wait for a daily green candle to close above the breakout levels and enter the next day when the previous breakout candles's high is taken out.
2. Wait for Retest of previous resistance and then take an entry (Entry 2) i.e. at 173. Generally a beginner or a safe trader takes entry here.
Trading Tip - Wait for a green bullish candle (ideally a bullish green hammer candle with a good tail) to form at the retest levels. Take entry on the next day, only when the previous bullish green hammer's candle's high is taken out.
Where should be the Stop Loss?
In every trade, we should give utmost and primary importance to Stop Loss rather than target. Only after calculating our Stop Loss, we can assess our Risk and accordingly plan the Reward or Profit. In this case, there can be 2 different SL levels for above 2 strategies:
1. For Entry 1, the stop loss should be a little below the handle i.e. 140.
2. For Entry 2, our stop loss becomes a bit less i.e at 160
Trading Tip - Do not give SL at exact levels from where the stock has bounced back. For example - In entry 1, it is better to give SL at 138 rather than 140 so that minor fluctuations do not hit our SL and then move upward. Similarly in entry 2, it is better to give Sl at 160 rather than 162.
What should be the Target?
In general, the target is calculated by calculating the depth of the cup. In this case, the depth of the cup ranges from Rs 120 - 160 i.e. Rs 40. Hence the stock will move up by Rs 40 from breakout ( or retest levels) i.e. from Rs 160 - 200. Hence our ideal target should be Rs 200
Trading Tip - In the present times, all traders use digital charts. Hence the whole world can see that a Cup and Handle Pattern has formed. Every trader knows the ideal target is Rs 200. Thus all FIIs, DIIs, automated trading systems, retail traders, etc. would have put huge sell orders at 200 levels. Hence the stock may fall sharply as soon as it touches Rs 200 due to heavy selling or heavy supply.
Thus it is better to book profits at just below the target i.e. between Rs 195-198 so that you may not lose money.
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Low Risk High Reward Setup with RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCEThe analysis is on how to create a low risk high reward trade with RSI being a key indicator,together with previous broken resistance line now acting as a support.
If the price slope of the stock is negative (bearish) and the RSI slope is positive (bullish) it is an indication (RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE) of the reversal in the price of the stock.With the previous broken resistance line which will be the demand zone of the buyers a long setup can be created with the stoploss just below the confirmation bullish candle at the close of the day.
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