How to make a winning trade using pennants
A pennant is a small symmetrical triangle that begins wide and converges as the pattern matures (like a cone).
Here is an example of IEX.
The company has declared a good set up of numbers on 22nd July.
Profit after tax is up by 48%
Sales are up by 36%
The price is now hovering near the previous Resistance which now acts as a support
Tight price range near the support level. Look at the small candles.
Price goes up with rising volume on 23rd Aug.
Any pattern may falter depending on the overall market condition. So one should always keep a stop loss. :)
Hope you liked the idea. Happy trading.
Support and Resistance
Biocon - A case study for Long Term InvestmentThis is the monthly chart. Recently Biocon broke the support levels of 360-365 and this resulted in a major 10% fall upto 330 levels.
For long term investors, the question that arises here is - Where is the next buying zone? From which price levels the stock will show a bounce back?
Here we will learn the use of EMA or Exponential Moving Average. Every stock respects a different exponential moving average and hence a single EMA cannot be used as a common standard. From the historical monthly chart, we can observe that the stock has been respecting the 50 day EMA (more than 3 times) in the Monthly Timeframe for the past 8 years. Now the stock is coming down to the 50EMA support having broken the 20EMA support zone.
Thus we can initiate a buy around 300 levels, where the 50 day EMA support exists.
When to buy?
We should buy only when we receive multiple confirmations. Those should be:
a. Stock respects the 50 EMA support.
b. Stock forms a bullish hammer or bullish harami candle from the 50 EMA support.
Only when these two conditions are satisfied, we can initiate a BUY on this stock.
L&T FinnanceOnce it crosses the resistance zone and closing above 101- 104 on daily basis following are the targets which can be achieved.
Target 1 - 114
Target 2- 125
If share breaks support zone below 95 then it may come down.
SL-84
Its only for educational purpose. Take your own decision for your trade.
Trend Line Inside the Uptrend Channel NSE:EMAMILTD
Trend lines can be drawn in between the trading channels, that's means a trend line inside the trend lines (channel). Market already break this inside resistance line, so we can easily take a long position using "Buy Stop" or "GTT" order. Because the stock or chart it self break the resistance line, so you can say this is a upside breakout inside that nested uptrend.
Breakout Trading Strategy NSE:HAVELLS
Market break the resistance line but unable to close above the line and make upper shadow, that's means the chart itself respect the resistance point again. So without closing we can't rely on such breakouts. Showing upper shadow in same point on several times means the chart/market already started to ignore this price level.
How to enter a trade after a breakout 1) After breakout price comes near the previous supply zone and now it should act as demand zone which is support obviously
2) We should see the volumes at the time of retracing volumes are always low which is a good indication that means some profile booking is happening
3) If the price is not supported by volumes it kind of reverse that exactly happening now in this stock.
4) For entry we should look for any big green candle supported by volumes that's a indication that buyers are active now.
5)Now go for smaller time frame like 1 hour 30min for good entry
Let us analyze recent fall and rise events in BTCBitcoin had a fantastic rally this year but also had seen the worst of the falls due to China’s crackdown. Let’s analyze the BTC chart and find out the critical signs we have observed during the fall and also analyze what’s the current situation.
In this analysis, we will be using Trendlines, Supply and Demand Zones, and RSI. We shall understand them briefly.
Trendlines can be ascending or descending lines. The trendlines are formed using at least 2 tops or bottoms. Ascending lines are formed by joining at least 2 higher highs or 2 higher lows which act as support. Descending lines are formed by joining at least 2 lower lows or 2 lower highs which act as resistance.
Applications of Trendline s:
1. They indicate the prevailing trend in the particular duration.
2. They act as support and resistance lines.
3. If ascending trendlines are broken to the downside and the immediate low of the rally is broken then the stock may have a new downtrend.
4. Similarly breaking the descending trendlines to the upside and an immediate high of the prevailing fall indicates the new uptrend.
Supply and Demand Zones are the zones where the price is failing to break out multiple times. Supply zones are the areas of interest for the bears and demand zones are the areas of interest for the bulls.
Applications of Zone s:
1. They represent the critical areas in the chart where the traders or investors are interested.
2. Breakouts in either direction will add momentum in that direction.
Interesting Interpretation of Trendlines and Zones :
1. Ascending trendlines are joined by the points where bulls are interested to go long.
2. Descending trendlines are joined by the points where bears are interested to go short.
3. Similarly demand and supply zones are zones where bulls and bears are interested in long and short respectively.
4. Giving up trendlines and prices going below or above immediate level indicate that the bulls or bears have given up on the stock for a while.
Important Note :
The breakout should be confirmed by checking higher volumes or pull backtest or waiting for the price to take out immediate high or low. This confirmation gives us a confluence between the different schools of thought. Some traders may only follow trendlines for breakouts, some may follow zones, these checks ensure you have more participation towards your position.
Once the trendline or a zone is broken the nature becomes opposite. For example, if a supply zone or a descending line is broken, the price rises and then comes back to test the zone, this time it must act as a demand zone or support line, else it is said to be failed in the pull backtest.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
It is a momentum indicator of the price in a particular duration. For detailed definition and formula, please check in the indicators section in TradingView.
It is generally used to determine whether the stock is oversold or overbought.
Applications of RSI:
1. Oversold if the price reaches 20 or 30.
2. Overbought if the price reaches 80 or 70.
3. Reversal signs based on divergences. If price is making higher highs or higher lows but on contrary RSI is making lower highs or lower lows. Then it is a sign of bulls giving up and a bearish reversal is on its way.
Let us these concepts and apply to our chart.
You can see supply and demand zones and the trendlines on the chart.
FALL
The supply zone had been tested four times and then took a great fall. You can have a doubt that actually once the price had managed to breakout supply zone with good volumes and crossed immediate higher high but even failed. Yes, here it failed the pullback test. It received resistance from the purple trendline 1 and came back for the pullback test and failed. We can see a bearish divergence by checking corresponding highs trendline 1 connected in RSI. RSI was also indicating overbought signs.
After a certain fall, it rose again to test the zone which now turned to supply zone and couldn’t break. This gave confirmation for the participants of different schools of thought, hence with huge volumes price fell.
RISE
The price reached another critical area called the demand zone. Before falling into the demand zone, the purple trendline 2 gave support to the fall. The corresponding trendline 2 in RSI confirms the bullish divergence and showing oversold signs. This reversal was confirmed by huge volumes, taking out the 40k mark and breaking a strong trendline which resisted price to rise during the fall. The price also took a pullback test and succeeded.
CURRENT SITUATION
After a pullback, BTC made a high of 48k and then formed an intermediate demand zone. The blue trendline is supporting the rise. If the BTC breaks 48k, it can go to test the supply zone. If it breaks the blue trendlines and the intermediate trendline, it can test the 37k level. If the 37k level fails it may test the demand zone again.
We have a minor bearish divergence in RSI and RSI is in the overbought zone.
As we analyzed the fall and rise of BTC, we understood before considering any position, confirmation is necessary.
This is just an education post and not investment advice.
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)- Price is converging between lower trendline and upper trendline, will need to give breakout (follow the major trend)
- Price must trade above 35800 and sustain to make upper move to ATH which is 5.38% away)
- Outperformed nifty this week, follow up price action is needed (upside) as price closed exactly at upper trendline shadow
- Anticipating breakout in 1-3 weeks time period (although market is supreme)
- HDFC bank results on Monday, can help decide the direction of BNF.
NIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)Trendline still not broken (price near trendline and in consolidation mode around 15600 to 15900
This week the nifty closed at ATH and managed to close at upper levels.
Making small momentum candles (can break either side, p.s. Major trend is up)
Strong support at 15300 levels
A decisive close above 16000 with a catalyst is needed to enter new territory.
This weak midcap/ Smallcap and many other stocks blasted (realty/ pharma / broking) stocks did well.
What is Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?Inverse Head and shoulders Pattern is the mirror image of head and shoulders pattern.
Read about Head and Shoulder Pattern here:
Inverse H&S Pattern is bullish reversal pattern. Signals the traders to enter into long position above the neckline.
Volume play a major role in both H&S and Inverse H&S Patterns. Usually the spike in volume on breakout is considered as a great signal for bullish entry.
Again a suitable target can be obtained by measuring the distance between head and neckline of the pattern and using same distance to project the target .
After the neckline breakout there is also a probability that prices can be retrace again to neckline due to lack of demand . Prices can only rise if again there is more demand which will lead to bullish uptrend.
Also if the neckline slopes slightly upward that is the sign of greater market strength thus gives further conformation to go bullish on Inverse H&S Patter .
Let us know what do you think about Inverse H&S Pattern? Please comment your views/doubts!
As always nothing works every time in
markets. Please do your research before taking any position. This is only for Educational Purpose.
We are covering all Major Reversal and continuation patterns in this series.
Follow to get updated with all the informative and educational trading ideas.
Next Pattern we will cover: Round Bottom Pattern
Importance of Demand and Supply ZonesI gave you guys these Levels Yesterday To Trade. The First 5 Min CAndle Took a Heavy Support From the Major Support Zone and Made a Very Strong Bullish Candle and I Entered Straight Away In the Trade and Booked Over 180 Points in BankNifty FUT In Just 10-15MIn.Thats The Power of Demand and Supply Zones. Follow Me To Capture these Kind of MOves I Share them EveryDAy.
Tata Motors: Did Charts warn us ahead of the NEWSTata Motors
There was a NEWS today in afternoon with regards to Chip shortage effecting JLR car production and that it might take a toll on profitability for the Company. The NEWS took a heavy toll on Tata Motors instantly.
Now let me go by disclaimer, this is analysis in hindsight which is easier as the outcome is there in front of us now.
Also, I have not traded this set up, nor is this any kind of recommendation now. (although you can check out my other ideas on Tata Motors in the links below).
But the fact is: Technical Analysis gave us warning signals way before the NEWS was out .
If you look at the charts,
- the stock had been trading at the edge of blue line
- 356 -360 as you can see has been a major hurdle for Tata Motors ( marked by red line and red arrow marks)
So, today when the stock came in the zone around 356 levels, the cues were there for those who understand Technical Analysis that the stock is at resistance. The risk was minimum to sell in the zone of 356-360 .
The NEWS came in and once the blue line was taken out, it only helped those who positioned themselves based on this Technical Analysis set up.
If you follow Technical Analysis and if you had an eye on the stock , you would agree that Technical Analysis was again ahead of NEWS in terms of signaling the potential risk above 355 levels
Let me know what you think, in the comment section below
Regards,
Vaibhav Deshpande
200 (DAILY) SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGEThe 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is considered a key indicator by traders and market analysts for determining overall long-term market trends. The indicator appears as a line on a chart and meanders higher and lower along with the longer-term price moves in the stock, commodity, or whatever instrument that is being charted. The 200-day SMA seems, at times, to serve as an uncanny support level when price is above the moving average or a resistance level when price is below it.
As a very long-term moving average, the 200-day SMA is often used in conjunction with other, shorter-term moving averages to show not only the market trend but also to assess the strength of the trend as indicated by the separation between moving average lines. For example, comparing the 50-day SMA and 200-day is relatively common.
When moving average lines converge, this sometimes indicates a lack of definitive market momentum, whereas the increasing separation between shorter-term moving averages and longer-term moving averages typically indicates increasing trend strength and market momentum
It is possible that there is also something of a self-fulfilling prophecy aspect to the 200-day SMA; markets react strongly in relation to it partially just because so many traders and analysts attach so much importance to the indicator.
It is acting as Dynamic Support currently.
ASTRON | WEEKLY ANALYSIS | 40%-100% UPSIDE POTENTIALCLOSELY WATCH THE LEVELS
VOLUMES HAVE STARTED TO POP IN
23/6/21
- Smallcap, Material (paper)--posted negative results FY21---quarterly results mar21 is positive
-W- Stock has bottomed out and started making positive price structure
- Above all major EMA on D, in W, crossing 100EMA with good VOL
- Parameters positive on D & W
- Volume have started to increase
- Breakout and close above 60-62 on closing basis with good volume will validate
- Can initiate buy at lower trendline if makes bullish candle
- 100EMA and Resistance confluence
How to use Anchored VWAPAn Anchored VWAP (Anchored - Volume weighted Average Price) lets you make up an idea on whether the control of the market is on side of bulls or bears. Like the traditional VWAP, it incorporates price and volume in a weighted average and can be used to identify areas of support and resistance on the chart. Just like in intraday setup, a traditional VWAP lets you gauge the control of bulls or bears on the price after the opening of the day, the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) tells you the control of bulls or bears with respect to an important day in the past over daily or weekly chart. In other words, an AVWAP indicator ties VWAP calculations to a specific price bar chosen by the trader.
In a price reversal from the previous swing high or low, an A-VWAP tells us a general idea about the long-term (or short term based on the Anchor date) support or resistance or the price. In the attached TV screen, A-VWAP is applied over BankNifty futures (current contract in front). Here we can see that the price has taken reversals multiple times from the AVWAP.
Indigo Is in the verge of breaking my Quant Box.In daily and 30 min chart, Indigo has shown a consolidation of COI . Which clears, if it breaks either side and stands then it might give a multi-range target.
Please check the chart where I have provided a short-term multi-range target. Another side of the wall of the Quant box will be the Stop Loss.
The traders can plan their trade with derivative products also as per their risk.
Standard Disclaimer: Please consultant your financial advisor before investing. This report is for training purpose