NIFTY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (17/7/21)Trendline still not broken (price near trendline and in consolidation mode around 15600 to 15900
This week the nifty closed at ATH and managed to close at upper levels.
Making small momentum candles (can break either side, p.s. Major trend is up)
Strong support at 15300 levels
A decisive close above 16000 with a catalyst is needed to enter new territory.
This weak midcap/ Smallcap and many other stocks blasted (realty/ pharma / broking) stocks did well.
Chart Patterns
All you need to know about DLF in 15 mins👑 Terms used if you don't know :
✣ An inverse head and shoulders also called a "head and shoulders bottom", is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of security meets the following characteristics: the price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs
✣ Contraction pattern: A pattern starting with a broadening high candlestick and low candlestick and converging to a fixed point, these highs and lows created in between them are bulls vs bears fight going on inside the pattern and if it comes to the lower part of it, surely bulls will take it to the topmost point and vice-versa until one of them wins
✣ Structure and trend: Two types of trends that exist in the market today are uptrends and downtrends. Each type of trend tells a different story and has its own impact on a trader's success in the market. While uptrends show a series of higher highs and higher lows, downtrends show lower highs and lower lows
✣Breakout: Breakouts are commonly associated with ranges or other chart patterns, including triangles( HERE WE WILL SEE THIS ONE ), flags, wedges, and head-and-shoulders. These patterns are formed when the price moves in a specific way which results in well-defined support and/or resistance levels. Traders then watch these levels for breakouts
✣ RSI DIVERGENCE: A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
✣ Supply/ Demand: In the supply zone, the prices are higher than the bid price, and in the demand zone, they are lower. The bid price is what a trader is willing to pay for a stock
👑 Important levels - explained well
👑 Comment your thoughts and queries regarding anything on this analysis of mine, feel free buddy :)
⌛ Motivational and psychological area ⌛
✣Trade only if you are in the right mindset, if you have been emotionally weak for some time, take your time and don't trade, trade with a happy and + mindset only.
✣If you want to make money, firstly be prepared to lose it, only that much which you can afford and that much by which you can make a mistake again, learn from them and grow
✣Don't lose hope and keep grinding
✣I have seen my friends on youtube streaming games with watching 10, constantly they streamed for a year or two and now they are buzzing with 1k to 2k watching daily.
✣Focus on the process, you are here to make money not stupid decisions and lose it all
✣No one will help you climb the mountain, few will tell the path, so follow good people, make good mentors and make good decisions and choices in the stock market.
✣Believe in yourself :)
🎓🎓 Some info about me :)
➼My name is Apoorv and I am a 2nd year Engineering student, I want to pursue trading as my career, and thus whatsoever setups or trades I potentially see on my charting platform, I post it here and share them with you all.
➼I hope you will love my simple analysis style.
➼Feel free to suggest your view on this as learning is earning here :)
➼I take my trades on my Zerodha account :)
➼I don't take all the trades I post
➼These charts are my and only my work, my thought process, just from an educational point of view and no calls.
Ascending Triangle BreakoutOBEROIRLTY: Swing trade
Ascending Triangle Breakout
In Ascending triangle pattern the upper trendline is flat, while the lower line is rising.
This pattern indicates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers. It is considered a bullish pattern and is usually resolved with a breakout to the upside. The pattern is completed on a decisive close above the upper line.
This breakout should see a sharp increase in volume .
The upper resistance line should act as support on subsequent dips after the breakout.
Ascending Triangle Measuring Technique
For the ascending triangle, traders can measure the distance from the start of the pattern, at the lowest point of the rising trendline to the flat support line. That same distance can be transposed, later on starting from the breakout point and ending at the potential take profit level.
The illustration above shows the distance from A to B can be transferred higher up, from C to D, in order to project a possible take profit level.
How to trade Ascending Triangle Pattern
After viewing a strong break above resistance, traders can enter a long position, setting a stop at the recent swing low and take profit target in line with the measuring technique.
Note- False breakouts are possible (traders need to manage risk accordingly )
My advice is to risk only 2% of your trading capital. Buy 30% of your position at CMP & if price respect levels of 676 then execute your 70% position.
The whole idea is to lose less money when you are wrong and to win more money when you are right.
Confluence of Support or ResistanceA confluence of support or resistance is simply an intersection of two or more important levels. Market participants prefer to trade around a zone that involves two or more factors rather than a zone with just one. The probability of winning is higher around confluence zones.
Trading concept- Absorption of DemandMyth: If the price approaches a level repeatedly, and gets rejected from it, this means that the level is very strong.
Reality: After each touch, the level becomes weaker and weaker due to the absorption of the residual orders.
Underlying logic:
1. Whenever the price keeps approaching a certain level, there are pending buy orders which are waiting to be filled.
2. Every time the price comes back to this level, a certain amount of orders gets absorbed.
3. More the price approaches that level, the lesser unfilled order remains.
4. Hence, ultimately all the orders get absorbed and we see a breakout/breakdown of that level.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick
How to trade breakouts ( Pt.2)I am a semi-systematic trader and my pattern scanners will more often than not look for the same patterns. After my MHRIL trade, this one is slightly different although the underlying principles remain the same. So every trade posted here will have nuances that must look out for in a breakout trade and I will try my best to explain them.
Cup n handle pattern. General information regarding cup n handle pattern. LT used as an example only. This chart pattern was first popularized by William J. O’Neil. The cup part of the formation is created when profit taking sets in or the market itself is in a correction and the stock sells off and forms the left side of the cup to the downside. The cup bottom is formed when the stock finally runs out of sellers at new low prices and buyers start moving in and bidding the stock back up again as sellers demand higher prices to sell the stock.
The pattern has better odds if it is a stock in a strong sector that has increasing earnings growth expectations. LT is strong stock ...clean company .
What is Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?Inverse Head and shoulders Pattern is the mirror image of head and shoulders pattern.
Read about Head and Shoulder Pattern here:
Inverse H&S Pattern is bullish reversal pattern. Signals the traders to enter into long position above the neckline.
Volume play a major role in both H&S and Inverse H&S Patterns. Usually the spike in volume on breakout is considered as a great signal for bullish entry.
Again a suitable target can be obtained by measuring the distance between head and neckline of the pattern and using same distance to project the target .
After the neckline breakout there is also a probability that prices can be retrace again to neckline due to lack of demand . Prices can only rise if again there is more demand which will lead to bullish uptrend.
Also if the neckline slopes slightly upward that is the sign of greater market strength thus gives further conformation to go bullish on Inverse H&S Patter .
Let us know what do you think about Inverse H&S Pattern? Please comment your views/doubts!
As always nothing works every time in
markets. Please do your research before taking any position. This is only for Educational Purpose.
We are covering all Major Reversal and continuation patterns in this series.
Follow to get updated with all the informative and educational trading ideas.
Next Pattern we will cover: Round Bottom Pattern
Nifty chart learning from backtest.Why we have seen 646 (13777-13131=646) points down move in Nifty in a single day. The reason was, from 12730 market moved to 13777 which was 61.8% in fib level for 3rd wave. Since 2nd wave was flat, the 4th wave was impulsive. So we have touched 61.8% and bounced back for 5th wave move.
what happens to 3rd wave, if 1st wave gets extended. You have to learn this.
What happens to 4th wave, if 2nd wave gets impulsive move. Do the backtest and learn.
What happens to 4th wave, if 2nd wave gets flat move. Do the backtest and learn.
Happy learning.
Fibonacci Masterclass - Fibonacci Retracement and ExtensionHi guys, I have finally completed the thread on Fibonacci (Though it took longer than usual). I have tried with the best of my little knowledge to create this thread. This has everything you need to know about Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension. Also, if the thread is free that doesn't mean I have compromised with the quality. All you have to do is just read this thread again and again until you get a good grasp of it. everything.
Table of Contents:
1. What Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?
2. Significance of Fibonacci Retracement levels
3. Finding Fibonacci Retracement Levels
4. How to use the Fibonacci retracement levels?
5. What are Fibonacci Extensions?
6. Significance of Fibonacci Extension levels
7. Finding Fibonacci Extension levels
8. Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Fibonacci Extensions
What are Fibonacci Retracement levels?
• Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate areas where the price could stall or reverse.
• These horizontal levels can act as a potential support or resistance levels
• They are based on Fibonacci numbers. Each level is associated with a percentage which means how much of a prior move the price has retraced.
• The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
• While 50% is not a pure Fibonacci ratio, but it is still used as a support and resistance indicator. This is because people worldwide regard it as an important level.
• The price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest. Hence, please use the Fibonacci retracement as a confirmation tool.
Significance of Fibonacci Retracement levels
Fibonacci retracements can be used to:
• Place entry orders
• Determine stop-loss levels
• Set price targets
For example, A stock may be in an uptrend. After a move up, it retraces to the 61.8% level. Then, it starts to go up again. Since the bounce occurred at a Fibonacci level during an uptrend, you can enter long positions with a stop loss just below the Fibonacci level or at the candlestick low.
Finding Fibonacci Retracement levels
In order to find the Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing High and Swing Low.
• For uptrends, select the Swing Low and then the Swing High.
• For downtrends, select the Swing High and then the Swing Low.
Example: Fibonacci retracement in an uptrend
Example: Fibonacci retracement in a downtrend
How to use the Fibonacci retracement levels?
If the price is approaching a Fibonacci level, you should look out for the following things at the point of interaction or in the vicinity of the level.
• Some reversal candlestick pattern
• Volume is above average.
• Moving average
• RSI divergence
• Previous S/R level or pivot level
The trade will be a high probability trade if some of these factors create a confluence zone.
What are Fibonacci Extensions?
• Fibonacci extension is a tool that can be used to find price targets or estimate how far a price may move after the retracement/pullback is over.
• Extension levels are also possible areas of interest where the price may stall or reverse.
• It can be used to find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident.
• If in a stock, a new high/low occurs, the trader can use the Fibonacci extension levels to get an idea of where the price can go.
• Fibonacci extension levels can be calculated to give the trader ideas on profit target placement.
Significance of Fibonacci Extension levels:
• Fibonacci extensions can be used for any timeframe and in any market- stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc.
• Fibonacci extension levels indicate a price area that will be significant for the stock after the pullback/correction is over.
• Extension levels can be drawn on different price waves over time. When levels from these different waves converge at one price, that could be a very important area.
Finding Fibonacci Extension levels
In order to find the Fibonacci extension levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing High and Swing Low.
• For uptrends, click on the Swing Low and then on the Swing High. Then go to the Fibonacci setting and click on reverse. Or if your software directly has the extension tool then it’s even easier.
• For downtrends, click on the Swing High and then on the Swing Low. Then go to the Fibonacci setting and click on reverse.
Example: Fibonacci extension in an uptrend
Example: Fibonacci extension in a downtrend
Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Fibonacci Extensions
• Fibonacci retracements provide levels for a pullback whereas Fibonacci extensions provide levels to move in the direction of the existing trend.
• For instance, a stock goes from 50 to 100, and then back to 75. The move from 100 to 75 is a retracement. If the price starts rallying again and goes to 150, that is an extension because the price moved past the previous swing high which is 100 in this case.
This is everything you need to know about Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. This thread is more than enough to make you profitable. Keep reading and revising until you learn everything written in this post. I hope you find this post useful. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a consolidated PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick
Symmetrical Triangle in NTPC.A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern characterized by two converging trend lines connecting a series of sequential peaks and troughs. These trend lines should be converging at a roughly equal slope.
1. Symmetrical triangles occur when a security's price is consolidating in a way that generates two converging trend lines with similar slopes.
2. The breakout or breakdown targets for a symmetrical triangle is equal to the distance between the initial high and low applied to the breakout or breakdown point.
3. Many traders use symmetrical triangles in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as a confirmation.
The price target for a breakout or breakdown from a symmetrical triangle is equal to the distance from the high and low of the earliest part of the pattern applied to the breakout price point. The stop-loss for the symmetrical triangle pattern is often just below the breakout point.