[Basket] Comparing NIFTY and set of 10 stocksAfter the previous idea, I thought to make another index with 10 stocks of which I chose for basket.
ESCORTS
RELIANCE
APOLLOHOSP
BIOCON
CONCOR
DABUR
JUBLFOOD
TORNTPOWER
AMARAJABAT
SHREECEM
Each has equal allocation.
This is an interesting way of making projection.
X-indicator
How to publish a script/indicator on TradingView?Hey everyone!👋
We have prepared this visual guide to help you out in publishing your very first script/indicator on TradingView. Just type in your code, provide a decent heading, write a meaningful description explaining how your script is original, and just publish. Easy, right? Let’s delve into this process!
A step-by-step guide on how to publish a script on TradingView.
1. When you open TradingView, you will find an option called "Chart". As soon as you click it, it will redirect you to a blank chart template.
2. The blank chart will look something similar to the chart below. At the bottom of the screen, you will see a toolbar with various options. Click on “Pine Editor”. It will open a blank notepad type of page, on which you are supposed to write the code using the Pine script.
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HOW TO AVOID FAKEOUTS AND PROTECT YOUR CAPITALTaking A Right Breakout Trade Can Be Really Benifical, But What If It Is A Fake Breakout , Than It Will Be A Real Pain ....
There Is No Way One Can Completely Avoid All The False Breakout , But It Is Possible To Avoid Most Of Them With Certain Strategies ,Which We Are Going To Talk About In This Post .
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So, Lets See How To Not Trade A Breakout And Avoid Fake Breakouts...
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Types Of Breakout :-
Trendline Breakouts
Pattern Breakouts (Parallel Channel ,Triangle.....)
All Time High Breakouts
Support And Resistance Breakout
These Are The Basic Types Of Breakouts That Are Majorily Traded Around The World .So We Will Countine Our Discussion Taking Above Types Into Consideration .
Breakout :- When The Price Of A Particular Stocks Closes Above A Price Zone (Support & Resistance ) Which Is Previously Tested By The Stocks Many Times .
Fake-Breakout :-When The Price Of A Particular Stocks Fails To Sustain Its Position Above The Support Or Resistance Level And A End Up With A Reversal .A False Breakout Happens When There Are Not Enough Buyers To Continue The Trend In Breakout Direction.
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Look For These Things To Make Your Breakout Successful
Candlestick Pattern
Volume
RSI
Indices
Support And Resistance
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Candle Stick
Assuming that you already know about the bacis of candle , look if there is bullish or bearish candles at the time of breakout .
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Rsi
check the levels of rsi , check wheather if it is in the overbought(>80) region or oversold(<20) region . RSI below 40 a good for breakout , and above 70 is unhealthy for a breakout . Also check for the divergence RSI indicating .
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Volume
Look for volume buildup at the time of breakout
Indices
You Can Also Look For Nifty Or Bank Nifty Index Or Particular Sectoral Index
Like If You Are Planning To Take A Breakout Trade In Hdfc Than Look At The Charts Of Banknifty Also , Like If It Bullish Or Not , If It Bearish Than Dont Take Trade With Your Full Capital Instead Trade With 50% And Add Another 50% At The Of Retest Or Look For Pullback At Lower Timeframe , Assuming All Above Factors Candlestick, Rsi, Volume Are Favouring The Breakout .
Support And Resistance
Instead of drawing a suppport and resistance a single flat line always draw a price zone indicating support and resistance zone covering the shadows of the candle
You Can Also Use Ema And Couple It With The Above Factor To Add A Extra Confidence To Your Analysis
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Some Other Key Factors ...
1)Market Will Give You Infinte Oppourtunities So Dont Take Trade Based On Emotions .
2)Dont Enter A Trade If Your Price Is Already Went High .
3)If Price Is Moving Rapidly In One Direction And Then Breakout Happens Than Wait For A Reversal And If The Price Consolidate On Lower Time Frame Berfore The Breakout And Then Gives A Breakout There Are Less Chances That It Will Retest The Breakout Levels So Enter As Soon As You Got The Opppourtunity
4) Last but not least never stop learning and keep grinding
HOPE YOU HAVE ENJOYED THE POST , WISH YOU A HAPPY TRADING JOURNEY AHEAD
What does the Volatility Index (VIX) indicate you?The volatility index (VIX) is a measure of market volatility, which is why it is called the volatility index. Since a high level of VIX represents a high level of fear in the market and a low level of VIX indicates a high level of confidence in the markets, it is referred to as the Fear Index in common parlance.
The VIX is typically used to measure the near term, and as a result, the VIX is calculated using options expiring in the current month and the following month. The VIX index is based on the assumption that the option premium on key Nifty strikes reflects the implied volatility in the broader market environment.
1. To traders in the equity markets, the VIX is a very valid and realistic indicator of market volatility. The stock traders who engage in intraday trading as well as short-term traders benefit from this information because it allows them to determine whether market volatility is increasing or decreasing. They will be able to adjust their strategy as a result. For example, when the volatility is expected to spike sharply, intraday traders run the risk of their stop losses being triggered quickly, which can be disastrous. As a result, they can either reduce their leverage or increase the size of their stop losses as necessary.
2. The VIX is also a very good indicator for long-term investors, as previously stated. Generally speaking, long-term investors aren't overly concerned with short-term fluctuations in the market. Institutional investors and proprietary desks, on the other hand, are restricted in their ability to take risks and incur MTM losses. When the VIX indicates that volatility is increasing, they can increase their hedges in the form of puts, allowing them to participate in both directions of the market.
3. The VIX index is also a useful indicator for traders who trade options. Typically, the decision to buy or sell an option is based on the volatility of the underlying asset. In situations where volatility is expected to increase, options are likely to become more valuable, and buyers are likely to benefit more from their purchases. When the VIX falls, there will be more wasting of time value, and option sellers are more likely to benefit from the decrease in the VIX.
4. It is also beneficial in the trading of volatility. If you believe that the markets will become more volatile in the near future, one strategy is to purchase straddles or strangles. However, when volatility is expected to increase, these become prohibitively expensive. A better strategy would be to purchase futures contracts on the VIX index itself, which would allow you to benefit from volatility while not having to worry about the direction of the market's movement.
5. The VIX index is a very good and reliable indicator of the movement of the stock market. If you plot the VIX against the movement of the Nifty for the last nine years, since the inception of the VIX, you will notice a clear negative correlation in the charts themselves. As a rule of thumb, markets tend to peak out when the VIX is at its lowest point, and markets tend to bottom out when the VIX is at its highest point. For index traders, this is a useful piece of information.
Now what exactly does the VIX value signify?
Assume the India VIX is 20. This means that traders anticipate 20% volatility over the next 30 days. In other words, traders anticipate that the Nifty will be worth between +20% and -20% more than it is now in the next year over the next 30 days. When market participants are fearful or complacent about the future of the market, the VIX index can be used to determine their level of confidence. The VIX index gives a more precise picture of the market's choppiness.
The Types of Market Days - Handbook for a laymanHi all, today we are going to see one of the most important concepts for day trading. This is an updated version with better illustrations and more exhibits. I have taken all the content from the book “Secrets of a Pivot Boss” and added illustrations and charts so that you don’t have to read the complete book. I am merely a presenter of the concepts written by Franklin Ochoa. The charts and illustrations are all done by me. So, without further ado, let’s delve right into the topic.
There are six types of market days that we will cover. Remember, these days are crucial for a day trader. These types of days are repeatedly seen in the market, but no two days are ever identical. As such, these categories should be used more as guidelines, rather than seeing them as etched in stone. Again, your ability to recognize the pattern of the day accurately will be a huge step toward successfully engaging the market
1. Trend Day
Illustration:
Trend Day is the most aggressive type of market day.
On a bullish Trend Day, the open usually mark the day's low, while the close usually mark the day's high, with a few ticks of tolerance in either direction.
On a bearish Trend Day, the open will usually mark the day's high, while the market will usually close near the session's low.
The market will typically start fast on this type of day and the farther price moves away from value, the more participants will enter the market, creating sustained price movement on increased volume.
Initiative buying or selling is the culprit on this type of market day, as these participants are confident they can move price to a new area of established value.
Price conviction is strongest during a Trend Day. The market will start strong right out of the gate and will usually maintain a unidirectional stance throughout the day, never calling into question the day's direction or conviction.
This type of day has the highest price range (high price minus low price), meaning it can be quite costly if you are positioned against the market or if you fail to recognize the pattern early enough to enter alongside the market.
These types of days only occur a few times a month, but catching these moves can certainly make your month, in terms of profits.
Trend Day is usually preceded by a quiet day of market activity, which is usually a day with a small range of movement. Coincidentally, this type of market behavior will usually follow a Trend Day as well.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
2. Double-Distribution Trend Day
Illustration:
While this day is a trending day, it in no way has the confidence or conviction of a Trend Day.
Instead, this type of day is characterized by its indecisive nature at the outset of the session.
During this type of day, the market will usually open the session in a quiet manner, trading within a fairly tight range for the first hour or two of the session, thereby creating an initial balance that is narrow.
The initial balance is traditionally defined as the price range of the first hour of the day.
If the initial balance is too narrow, the price will break free from the range and auction toward new value, creating range extension, which is any movement outside the initial balance.
After the initial balance of the Double-Distribution Trend Day has been defined, the price will break out from the range and auction toward new value, where it will form a second distribution of price. This is the market's attempt at confirming whether a new value has indeed been established.
Double-Distribution Trend Day opens the session quietly, trading within a tight range that can be viewed as the day's "warm-up" period. Eventually, price breaks free of the range and begins trending toward new value, igniting initiative buying or selling.
Once the market finds new value, it then builds out another range before ending the day.
The ranges formed at both the beginning and end of the day is where the term "double-distribution" comes from, as the bulk of the day's volume resides at one of these extremes, essentially forming a double distribution of trading activity.
The initial balance is the base for any day's trading and is extremely important to the Double-Distribution Trend Day.
A narrow initial balance is easily broken, while a wide initial balance is harder to break. The fact that the initial balance is narrow on this type of day indicates that there is a good possibility of a breakout from the initial range, indicating that you will likely see a move toward a new value.
The narrow initial balance at the beginning of the Double-Distribution Trend Day indicates that either buyers or sellers will eventually overwhelm one side or the other.
Once the direction is decided, the price will freely move toward a new area of value since it is being driven by initiative market participants.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
3. Typical Day
Illustration:
The Typical Day is characterized by a wide initial balance that is established at the outset of the day.
On this type of day, price rallies or drops sharply to begin the session and moves far enough away from value to entice responsive participants to enter the market.
The responsive players push prices back in the opposite direction, essentially establishing the day's trading extremes. The market then trades quietly within the day's extremes for the remainder of the session.
The opening rally or sell-off is usually sparked by reactions to economic news that hits the market early in the day. This opening push creates a wide initial balance, which means the day's "base" is wide and will likely go unbroken.
A wide base during the first hour of the market will likely mean that the day's extremes will also remain intact, or unbroken.
During this type of day, you will usually see price trade back and forth within the boundaries of the opening range, as fair trade is easily being facilitated.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
4. Expanded Typical Day
Illustration:
Similar to the Typical Day in that it usually begins the session with early directional conviction. However, price movement at the open is not as strong as that seen during a Typical Day.
The initial balance is wider than that of a Double-Distribution Trend Day but not as wide as that of the Typical Day. Hence, it is susceptible to a violation later in the session.
Eventually, one of the day's extremes is violated and price movement is seen in the direction of the break, which is usually caused by initiative buying or selling behavior.
During an Expanded Typical Day, both the upper and lower boundaries of the initial balance are susceptible to violations. On any given day, you will see one, or both, of the boundaries, violated, as buyers and sellers attempt to push the price toward their own perceived levels of value.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
5. Trading Range Day
Illustration:
Both the buyers and sellers are actively auctioning prices back and forth within the day's range, which is usually established by the day's initial balance.
On this day, the initial balance is about as wide as that of a Typical Day, but instead of quietly trading within these two extremes throughout the day, buyers and sellers are actively pushing prices back and forth.
This type of day is basically like a game of tennis. The players stand on opposite sides of the court and take turns volleying the ball to one another throughout the match.
Likewise, buyers and sellers will stand at the extremes of the day and will enter the market in a responsive manner when the price reaches the outer limits of the day's range.
Responsive sellers will enter shorts at the top of the range, which essentially pushes price back toward the day's lows, while responsive buyers will enter longs at the bottom of the range, which pushes price back toward the day's highs.
This type of market day offers easy facilitation of trade and gives traders amazing opportunities to time their entries.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
6. Sideways Day
Illustration:
On this type of day, price is stagnant, as both buyers and sellers refrain from trading. This type of session usually occurs ahead of the release of a major economic report or news event, or in advance of a trading holiday.
There is no trade facilitation and no directional conviction.
The initial balance is rather narrow, which at first indicates the potential for a Double-Distribution Trend Day. However, the initiative buying or selling required for a Double-Distribution Trend Day never enters the fray, which leaves the market terribly quiet the rest of the session.
The Trading Range Day and the Sideways Day sound similar, but the difference lies within the participation levels of both buyers and sellers.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
So, with this, we are done with all types of trading days. Remember, each of these types of days is not set in stone. While every market day is similar to a day from the past, similar does not mean "exactly." You must be able to snuff out the subtleties of each new day as it relates to a day from the past. Steadfast practice creates a valuable experience.
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
What type of trader are you? A day trader, or a swing trader? Let me know in the comments. Also, if you need a PDF of this post with all the charts and illustrations, check out the links in the signature section (under the post).
Railway Track Pattern Railway track pattern
Don't know how many are known to this pattern but in my trading years i have noticed that Morning star/Evening star and railway track patterns are the most seen candle stick patterns at reversals
i personally trade this pattern in all the markets. Some even call this as order block. It doesn't matter what you name this pattern ... it works phenomenally
1. What's so special about this pattern :
This is a confluence pattern, If you get to see bullish RT in 1hr TF if could be morning star pattern in lower TF and could be a bullish pin bar in higher TF, which means you are literally covering
3 time frames in just one pattern
2. Where to identify and consider the pattern:
Majorly at support for bullish RT(Railway Track) and resistance for bearish RT could be any sort of Support Resistance and/or Pivots, look for the volumes for better confirmation.
3. Entry and Exit with SL :
One can take entry with two different ways. Aggressive and Safe entry. If you notice the chart above there is a line drawn on the RT candle mid which will
act as your entry for safe entry and SL will be the low of the
candle in bullish RT and high of the candle in bearish RT Exit will be according to your trading style and timeframe used or take confluence from other
indicators/price action
These RT candle mid will be working as Support and Resistance in future. You can see the above chart for reference.
Cons of the pattern :
The pattern works well in all the time frames yet it has its pros and cons just like any other pattern yet they seem to be more informative. once you see Bullish/Bearish RT being failed there is 70% possibility That you will get to see a move on the other side. Concept is very similar to Block order / fulfilling left over orders. Lower timeframe signals are not that reliable in some markets but can be considered if used with confluence
If the concept looks vague look at the chart above, This is just an idea, workout on the pattern and its probabilities before going live.
Note : Just for educational purpose and not a recommendation.
Indicator for Intraday Trading - with BUY/SELL Signals Hi,
Here the trading made easy with Signals...
Its a Combined Pivot Boss Price Action Strategy Indicator.
This indicator was created based on Pivot Boss, RSI and Price Action Strategy.
BUY Signal - Go Long at middle price of the Candle, SL low of the candle.
SELL Signal - Go Short at middle price of the Candle, SL high of the candle.
Indicator Details:
Daily CPR Levels
Pivot Points
Weekly CPR Levels
Next Day CPR Levels
Camarilla Levels
Pre - Day, Week, Month - High / Low Levels
Money Zone - Value Area Levels
SMA , EMA and WMA Moving Averages
Bollinger Bands with Multi Time Frame
Magic Band
Price Action
Candle Pattern
Along with this Trend and Strategy table added in the chart which indicates about the Trend.
I also included BUY / SELL labels to take positions.
Happy Trading!!
How to use "Bollinger Bands" indicatorHey everyone! We have guide to help learn "Bollinger Bands" indicator. This indicator work all type of trade example intraday,swing trade ,BTST trade,weekly trade,Long side trade.
What is a Bollinger Bands?
A Bollinger is techanical analysis tool and you apply this tool price chart three lines that compose .one simple moving average (middle band) and other upper and lower bands typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20 day simple moving average
what do Bollinger bands Tell You?
This total highly popular and many people believe this indicator
Price move to the upper band ,the more case 70 to 80 percent overbought and closer price move the lower band this case oversold the market
Upper Bands Bollinger Band ssee chart nifty 50 daily time frame 19 oct 2021 price face resistance and go down side and big fall
Lower Range Bollinger bands see chart nifty 50 daily time frame 29 jan 2021 price go down side lower band and support move upward.(lower band work support zone)
Narrow Range Example bollinger Bands See chart Nifty 50 daily time 28 july 2021 Bollinger band Narrow range this case go upside the breakout upside and price go down side to breakdown chart
Predict Crude oil's next movement with Volume activityPrice action is the Key.
Use Ultra high volume setup/condition for additional confirmation purposes only.
A combination of Daily and Hourly time frames works well.
Highly recommended only if the Daily time frame is Trending.
Lower time frames say less than the hourly chart gives the confused or mixed-signal, so it is recommended to use for overnight positions.
Take trades based on your own risk appetite.
The indicator used is Volume Spread for VSA
Queries are Welcome
How to publish an idea on TradingView? Hey everyone!👋
We have prepared this visual guide to help out the awesome new users of TradingView. A lot of you are not aware but TradingView provides you a facility to share your charts with a wholesome community. All you have to do is just mark your chart, give it an awesome heading, write a good description and just publish. Easy, right? Let’s delve deeper into this process!
A step-by-step guide on how to publish an idea on TradingView.
1. When you open TradingView, you will find an option called "Chart". As soon as you click it, it will redirect you to a blank chart template.
2. The blank chart will look something similar to the chart below. On the top-left-hand corner, you will see the "Scrip name" of the current scrip that you are checking.
3. Click on the "scrip name" and find the symbol that you like to see the chart of. Easy right?
4. You can now mark whatever you feel like as per your trading system. In general, you can mark different levels/zones of support, resistance, demand, supply, patterns, etc.
5. After marking all the levels, click on the "Publish" button shown at the top-right corner of the screen. It will redirect you to a blank form that you need to fill out.
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a) Title - A title for your idea
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Voila! You just published your first idea on TradingView.
Note : Ideas once published, cannot be edited/deleted after 15 minutes of publishing. Hence, if you make some mistakes, be sure to rectify them within 15 minutes.
A few important rules that you should keep in mind before posting an idea:
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When publishing content, make sure to write an easy-to-read title and a thoughtful description so that everyone can get the gist of your published work and the reasoning behind it.
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Any advertisement such as logos, links or references to any website, social media, messaging or email contacts, company names, wallet addresses, will invite action from the moderators. All content has to be free from promotion.
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Learn about an Indicator today - AVWAPThere are plenty of indicators traders use to help them to make trading decisions. Every trader have their favourite indicator/indicators. What is your favourite indicator? Write it in the comment.
We are going to know about the indicator AVWAP(Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price) in this post.
What is the speciality of AVWAP?
We can place it anywhere in the chart. From that place VWAP will begin.
I have taken bank nifty chart here as an example. In daily time frame I have seen a pin bar which is taking support from the trend line.
Now I have selected AVWAP from the trend line tools. I am placing it on the pin bar. We got the pin bar on feb 8.
How to use it in trading?
Reduce the time frame to 30 mins. From 9th the price is trading above the AVWAP bands. If price is trending above the middle band it is mildly bullish. Above all the band means bullish. Below the middle band means mildly bearish. Below all the band means bearish.
Now take 15 mins time frame. See how the price is bouncing up, taking the support of the upper band. Feb 10th price took good support from the upper band. Traders use different observation on the indicators they use, what I have written is just one observation about how to use AVWAP indicator in trading.
Let me give you another example.
This is the daily chart of tatasteel. I have placed AVWAP on Jan 27. Now reduce the time frame to 30 or 15 mins to get the trading opportunities.
Always use all the knowledge in making any trading decision. Indicators wont be right 100 % as market is dynamic.
In BN chart price is taking trend line support and in tatasteel price is taking support in daily time frame. In addition to that I have used AVWAP to get more edge in trading.
How to use macd indicator in daily tradePreface
Macd indicator use to help them to make trading decisions postional trade. Every trader most of the use macd indicator .Because trader favourite indicator and what is your favourite indicator ? Write it in the comment.
Speciality of Macd indicator?
Macd Negative area(zone,cross)
see nifty 50 chart this date 21 jan 2022 macd move down side negative(zone,area)
Macd Postive area(zone,cross)
see nifty 50 chart this date 27 dec 2021 macd move up side postive(zone,area)
Alright, the operation start after creating an high 18604.45 date 19 oct 2021. Macd indicator indicate negative cross 22 oct 2021 and price consolidation three four candle and next candle breakdown. Most of the case macd indicator indicate price direction .This reason most of the people use this indicator .
Case Price move up direction 29 oct 2021 to 15 Nov 2021 this case Macd indicator negative zone move up side and again reverse down side 16 nov 2021 and price go down 18150 to 16855
Quasimodothis is a quasimodo in buyning side when price is correct.
In Latin : Quasimodo means a new born baby.
Hence in price action Quasimodo means a new born trend.
For us the Quasimodo is a Price action Pattern which Suggest a long term reversal in trend of a particular Script.
key Level:
Found at all time high area
After a substantial rally at the top near to a Supply or MPL.
After a substantial Fall at the bottom near to a Demand or MPL.
There will be two Subsequent Engulf, Exactly opposite to each other or an engulf and a fake-out exactly opposite to each other.
The second engulf or False-Out will decide the direction of the Move.
Structure of an Quasimodo is H, L, HH, LL for Supply and L, H, LL, HH for Demand.
The second engulf should not be a reaction of the same demand or supply of the previous High or Low, as the case may be.
A Quasimodo level can be a FL or SR Break moment.
Quasimodo always contain a MPL inside it.
Where to look quasimodo:
Entry = Quasimodo level
Stoploss = Below the Quasimodo level
Target = opposite level
The Ichimoku cloud Part 1 : 5 important parts of ichimoku cloudHowdy Traders ,
The Ichimoku cloud was evolved by Goichi Hosoda,
utilization of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
1.identify support & resistance
2.momentum
3.Find trend direction
Parts of ichimoku cloud
1.kejun sen
2.Teken sen
3.senkou span A
4.senkou span B
5.kumo cloud
6. chikou ( we will learn in part 2 )
Happy Trading..............................................:) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Static and Dynamic supportThis chart is explaining static and dynamic support.
here horizonal base line is creating as static support
and 200 EMA is creating dynamic support
arrow upside mark below 200 EMA is showing dynamic support for price
arrow upside mark below horizontal line is showing horizontal support line
click like button if you like this support tutorial
XanderCrypto Day trading Indicator v2.3Overview: This is a day trading Indictor works using support & resistance and market trend, it is designed for all type of markets (crypto, forex, stock etc.) and works on all commonly used timeframes (preferably on 1H, 4H Candles).
How it works:
Core logic behind this indicator is to finding the Support and Resistance , we find the Lower High (LH) and Higher Low (HL) to find the from where the price reversed(bounced back) and also we use a custom logic for figuring out the peak price in the last few candles (based on the input "Strength" ). Based on the multiple previous Support and Resistance (HH, HL, LL LH) we calculate a price level, this price level is used a major a factor for entering the trade. Once we have the price level we check if the current price crosses that price level, if it crossed then we consider that as a long/short entry (based on whether it crosses resistance or support line that we calculated). Once we have pre long/short signals we further filter it based on the market trend to prevent too early/late signals, this trend is calculated based on the value from the input field "Factor". Along with this if we don't see a clear trend we do the filtering by checking how many support or resistance level the price has bounced off.
Stop Loss and Take Profit: We csn calculate the SL value by checking the previous support level for LONG trade and previous resistance level for SHORT trades. Take profit are calculated in 1:1 ratio as of now.
Available Inputs:
STR : Define the strength of the support resistance that we calculate. The lower value means less number of candles used for calculating the support & resistance and vice versa
Noise Reduction : Specify what level of trend to use. Using higher value will result script looking using the larger trend (zoomed out trend) and using lesser value will result in using the short trends
Note: For most of the charts you don’t need to change the default values. However, feel free to try it out.
How to use:
Add the script to the chart and once the indicator is load it will display the "long" and "short" entry points.
How to get access:
Send a DM to us for getting access to the script.
Introduction to Technical Analysis - Handbook for a laymanHi all, today we are going to study about basics and usage of technical analysis. I have prepared this wholesome post so that you guys are able to understand what technical analysis is all about. I have shortened the sentences to readable points, hence, don't mind the grammar.
Learning objectives:
After studying this post the student should be able to understand:
1. The basis of technical analysis
2. Top-down analysis in TA
3. Assumptions on which TA is based on
What is Technical Analysis?
1. Art and science of forecasting future prices based on an examination of the past price movements.
2. Based on analyzing demand-supply in any tradable instrument.
3. Analyze prices, volumes, open interest, various patterns, and indicators to it in order to assess the future price movements.
4. It can be applied to any time frame.
5. TA ignores fundamentals (like financial and non-financial aspects of the company) and focuses on actual price movements.
6. TA is not astrology for predicting futures prices.
The Basis of Technical Analysis
What makes the Technical Analysis an effective tool to analyse the price behaviour, is explained by following theories given by Charles Dow:
1. Price discounts everything
“Each price represents a momentary consensus of value of all market participants – large commercial interests and small speculators, fundamental researchers, technicians and gamblers- at the moment of transaction” – Dr Alexander Elder
The current price fully reflects all the possible material information which could affect the price.
The market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others.
Technical analysis looks at the price and what it has done in the past and assumes it will perform similarly in future under similar circumstances.
2. Price movements are not totally random
If prices were always random, it would be extremely difficult to make money using technical analysis.
Technical analysis is a trend following system. Most technicians acknowledge that hundreds of years of price charts have shown us one basic truth – prices move in trends.
A technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the trend unfolds.
TA can be applied to many different time frames, and so it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends.
3. What is more important than why
“A technical analyst knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing”.
Technical analysts are mainly concerned with two things:
1. The current price
2. The history of the price movement
All of you will agree that the value of any asset is only what someone is willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why? By focusing just on price and nothing else, technical analysis represents a direct approach.
The price is the final result of the fight between the forces of supply and demand.
The objective of analysis is to forecast the direction of the future price.
Fundamentalists are concerned with “why the price is what it is”. Technicians believe it is best to concentrate on what and never mind why. Why did the price go up? Simple, more buyers (demand) than sellers (supply).
The principles of technical analysis are universally applicable. The principles of support, resistance, trend, trading range and other aspects can be applied to any chart.
TA can be used for any time horizon; for any marketable instrument like stocks, futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc.
Top-down analysis in Technical analysis
Consider the overall market, most probably the index. If the broader market were considered to be in bullish mode, analysis would proceed to a selection of sector charts.
Those sectors that show the most promise would be selected for individual stock analysis.
Once the sector list is narrowed to 3-5 industry groups, individual stock selection can begin.
With a selection of 10-20 stock charts from each industry, a selection of 3-5 most promising stocks in each group can be made.
After the stock selection, start with higher time frame charts and move down to the lower time frames.
Technical Analysis: The basic assumptions
The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:
1. The market discounts everything.
2. Price moves in trends.
3. History tends to repeat itself.
The market discounts everything
Technical analysis is criticised for considering only prices and ignoring the fundamental analysis of the company, economy etc.
TA assumes that, at any given time, a stock’s price reflects everything that has or could affect the company - including fundamental factors.
The market is driven by mass psychology and fluctuates with human emotions. Emotions may respond rapidly to extreme events, but normally change gradually over time.
It is believed that the company’s fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately.
This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the market.
Price move in trends
“Trade with the trend” is the basic logic behind TA.
Once a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Analysts frame strategies based on this assumption only.
Trend is your friend. Don’t betray your friend.
History tends to repeat itself
People have been using charts and patterns for several decades to demonstrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.
The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology.
Market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Big Green candle = Buy, Big Red candle = Sell.
So, this is it for this post. It should clear all the basic doubts about TA. If it doesn't, post the queries in the comments and I will try to help you out.
I spend a lot of time creating these educational posts, illustrations, charts, and PDFs. Please be appreciative of that and leave a like and comment if you found these helpful. It will help me to know that people are actually reading these posts. Also, if you need a PDF of this post with all the charts and illustrations, check out the links below this post.
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
NSE Certified Technical & Fundamental Analyst
Institutional money - Volume speaks a lot!Apl Apollo is one of the leading companies in Indian Steel sector.
I had some previous posts on it as well, which played out well for me.
The key aspect is to put urself in those big shoes and think like an Institution.
The key problem if you are an institution and want to buy a sizeable portion in a share is LIQUIDITY.
How will you get enough sellers to buy shares from?
Notice how on 11th Nov at 902 level,
One MF house Sold its position in APL Apollo while another Bought it.
One created Liquidity for the other.
Similarly on 20th December, Two MF houses did the same routine.
To understand how this impacts Volume, we need to understand what VOLUME is!
VOLUME of a day is simply the number of TRADES that took place on that day.
It doesn't mean that there are more buyers or more sellers, simply that N number of buyers and sellers did a trade.
Now MF Houses do this in a very large amount, and this drives up the volume.
If you have been in the market long enough, you would have definitely noticed that
Price tends to return back to the Institutional Buying Level after a short Impulse -
The Retailers usually buy in the rise and then when share prices fall down to original levels, they exit their positions to avoid further losses or simply put, their stop losses get triggered. This creates LIQUIDITY for the Institutions to fill their partial positions at the same price after offloading them to retailers previously at the top.
In this particular case,
There are a number of green flags.
Share Price bounced from EMA 100 - which has been a strong support all along.
RSI 30 - the usual bounce level and MACD Divergence decreasing
Prices are again above EMA 50 which has been a key level in rising trends for this share.
In previous 4 occasions when this happened, the share went on to make a Higher High.
I am expecting some upside here as well.
This is not an Investment Advice. Only for Educational Purposes.
Thanks for reading!
Unit_of_Technical_Analysis: Chapter 3: Bull CycleUnit_of_Technical_Analysis:
Chapter 3:
Bull Cycle: how to identify prior phase,
The Bull Cycle,
How to trade the Bull cycle.
Tools used:
1. Fibonacci
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) (36)
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (18, 36, 9)
4. Moving Average (MA) (36)
Time Frame: Daily
Method:
1. Bullish Divergence & Falling Wedge (or Consolidation/Accumulation) for identification of uptrend along with Fibonacci
2. Bullish Divergence for Uptrend along with Fibonacci + Trendline Breakout
Cycles within the Cycles:
1. Phase 1: Bullish Divergence
Dates: 13/03/20 – 24/03/20: Pre-Phase of Bull Cycle
We have seen in previous chapter that there was a bullish divergence at the end of 2008-09 Bull- Bear Cycle. Again it’s not necessary that we see a clear visible Divergence for a long period of 4-5 months like during 2008-09 cycle. It can also be for a short period like for 3-5 days also.
In 2020, we continue with our Bear trend, and then from 2/01/20 to 12/03/20, we identify a Bullish divergence in Daily Chart. On 13/03/20 RSI(36) is 25.56 while on 19/03/20 RSI(36) is 22.69, and on 23/03/20 RSI(36) is 24.16 over a period of this 12-14 days, we identify a sharp increase in RSI (of around 3-4 points in terms of units), while the price is still creating Lower Highs (LH) & Lower Lows (LL) patterns these difference of Price moving downwards while Indicators moving in upward direction is called as Bullish Divergence.
Falling Wedge: The price typically follows a pattern where it is moving downwards but with small and limited lows then the previous (swings) ones, the length of the swings are reduced which can be identified from the falling wedge. (Falling Wedge: an inclined line less than 45degree, where the price touches the bottomline of the wedge and starts moving upwards again)
These Indicators/ Oscillators only give us Signals, while we can start getting confirmation from Fibonacci retracement, where price starts creating Higher High (LH) & Higher Lows (LL) after the 1st Range formation (check 1st Fibo with low of 7511.1 on 24/03/20 and High of 9038.9 on 27/2/20), we get a 50% retracement. The best part is to terminate your short calls if we don’t move and sustain below these 50% retracement.
There are other methods too like trailing your SL to previous Highs, or Fibonacci retracements.
Bullish Divergence in Daily charts are strong and should be taken very seriously, if we are in Short calls we should keep on trailing our SL to previous Highs/ trail SL after the High or wait for completion of Range, then trail your SL to High, and further trail SL to 0.5 level or 0.236 level of range thereafter. Idea is to keep maximum profits in your pocket and get ourselves prepared for the Bull Trend.
2. Phase 2: Start of Bull Phase
Dates: 24/03/20 – 18/05/20: Start of Bull Cycle:
At the start of Bull Cycle, Price, RSI & MACD are moving in same upward direction, i.e. with every upward movement in price, RSI & MACD are also moving upwards. We can see continuous Higher High (HH), Higher Low (HL) patterns in the Bull Market. The confirmation of getting into Long Bull call signal is important.
Signal: RSI & MACD are moving in upward direction in tandem with Price after the Low of Bear cycle
Confirmation to get into Long Calls for Bull Trend: The best part is to get into buying streak in Long calls is when we start moving above the 50% retracement in Daily. We apply the same method as seen in Chapter 1 & 2, we draw a range from Low of 7511.1 (Level 0) on 24/3/20 to High of 9038.9 (Level 1) on 27/03/20 and wait for a retracement upto the 0.5 level or range, we can get into smaller time frame and look for intraday/15 minutes price action where we get a signal on Fibonacci for an Entry or get an Entry once the market starts moving above 0.5 level with small SL we can enter into a trade as per price action. (We will work on detailing again in coming Chapters with smaller time frames, currently we moved from chapter 1: monthly time frame to Chapter 2, 3 & 4 Daily Time frame)
(On 1/4/20 & 2/4/20 price closed below 50% level and on 7/4/20, it started moving above and also closed above 50% level of the range).
After moving above 50% level, price further moves above 0.786/ 1 levels and hits a target of 1.272/ 1.618. This completes formation of the 1st leg {(0-1 range), (reversal to 0.236/0.5 levels) & (extension to 1.272/1.618) of daily chart in total is the 1st leg as called as Unit of Technical analysis}.
Market may give a 50% retracement after completion of this 1st leg
Always remember that after completion of 1st leg, market gives a 50% retracement or a small reversal, these short reversals at regular levels signifies a strong uptrend. These small reversals are again as per Unit of Technical Analysis pattern.
The Downward trendline of Bear Cycle is also broken during the Bull phase yet another confirmation of Bull Trend.
Trendline: From the market high of 20/2/20 to next lower high of 5/3/20, the line joining these 2 points will be our 1st trendline, please remember, there can be slight change in trendline or formation of new trendline after a period of time.
The trendline breakout is generally followed by back-testing (after breakout with good bullish candle/s): (marked with highlighted portion in yellow)
a. 17/4/20 & 20/4/20 breakout from Trendline
b. 21/4/20 backtesting of Trendline
c. 22/04/20 further upmove of bullish uptrend and again breaking the previous high of 20/4/20 and market started moving up again. (That’s how the fight between Bulls & Bears goes on) subsequently we keep on creating Higher High (HH), Higher Low (HL) pattern and the uptrend continues.
3. Phase 3: Bull Trend continuation
Continuation of Uptrend
The uptrend is continued by forming new Higher Highs (HH) and Higher lows (HL),
After completion of the 1st leg, market had given a 50% retracement (Refer Fibo 2 on right)
Important thing is to look for patterns creating an uptrend, followed by Bullish Divergence and most important Price moving and sustaining above 50% level. If price doesn’t sustain the 50% level/ 0.236 level, we are in reversal.
These is the most important aspect that we saw in Chapter 1, where Bull Cycle follows a pattern of creating a Range from Low (0) to High (1) and Price taking a support at 50% levels (0.5 level of the range) or 0.236 level of the range.
There can be small reversals seen during the cycles, these maybe followed as per Fibonacci levels (will be covered in Chapter 4: Trading Fibonacci Levels of the Bull cycle) or ever as per Gann 90/120 days cycle for High’s and lows, here knowing the start point is very crucial.
Even if we can make out from the chart later on that, the price was the lowest on 24/03/20 of 7511.1, the real test is studying the market after 24/03/20 and finding out when we can expect a reversal and catch the trend during the time period. After the market has completed a downtrend, that marks the start of Bull Phase. (Remember, during live trading, we are not sure what will happen next but trade on the basis of price action, signals, indicators and probabilities)
We can also refer to 2008-09 bull trend formation in Chapter 2, which will again give an idea of the consolidation formed during the Bull cycle.
Subsequently, we see channel breakout, backtesting and price making further HH-HL pattern.
Observations:
The price movement during the Bull phase is systematic and moves in phases as described above,
Identification of uptrend can be best identified with Bullish divergence and confirmation with price action in the form of Fibonacci Retracement and vive-versa for Bullish Divergence.
For continuation of trend, Price, MA, RSI & MACD are moving is tandem.
Conclusions:
1. Fibonacci retracement can be best used along with RSI & MACD.
2. We can identify signals when small Fibonacci (in 15/30/hourly charts) gives retracement @ 0.236/0.5 levels and Long Buy signal for Weekly/ Monthly calls with 50% Fibonacci levels are described above.
3. Reversal patterns can be best identified with Fibonacci when Higher-High :Higher-Low patterns are formed.
Notes:
What is Bullish Divergence & Falling Wedge, Moving Average, there are various YouTube videos available.